Thread by @AliHMokdad

There are early indications that the decline in the Delta surge at the national level in the US has ended. 19 states have increasing transmission, including a number of states such as AZ, CA, and NM that had previously appeared to have been declining. 1/

It is clear that the notion that #COVID19 is over is very unlikely to be true. 2/
covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-…

We expect that cases will begin to increase, with daily deaths increasing towards the end of November. The increases are expected based on winter seasonality, waning immunity, and declining protective behaviors such as mask use. 3/

.@IHME_UW projects 863,000 cumulative reported #COVID19 deaths on March 1. This represents 120,000 additional deaths from November 1, If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 69,000 fewer cumulative reported deaths on March 1. 4/

Given that mask use is down to only 38%, and mobility is close to the pre #COVID19 baseline, we should prepare for the joint impact of a considerable flu season and #COVID19 on hospitals. 5/

The main strategies at this point to control the pandemic are: 1) rapid vaccination of children ages 5–11, 2) continued outreach to promote adult vaccination, 3) promotion of boosters, and 4) promotion of seasonal mask use for those at risk. end/