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Ted Darling

5 Nov, 11 tweets, 3 min read

Hello Friday!

W/MTD

$NIKK +3.12%
$COMPQ +2.85%
$DAX +2.17%
$SPX +1.62%
$KOSPI +0.42%

$CRB -1.79%
$NATGAS +5.34%
$COPPER -1.09%
$CORN -1.58%
$WTIC -5.70%

$TLT -0.27%
$IEF +0.46%
$SHY +0.13%

$USD +0.23%
$GOLD +0.54%

Let's dig into the wee hour 🧮!

Asia closed with a ↘️ bias

$NIKK 29612 -0.6%
$SSEC 3492 -1.0%
$TWII 17297 +1.3% 🔺
$KOSPI 2069 -0.45%
$IDX 6582 -0.05%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7457 +0.4%

India ↔️
$BSE 60068 unch/closed

Europe opened with a ↗️ bias

$DAX 16021 -0.05%
$FTSE 7308 +0.4%
$CAC 7006 +0.25%
$AEX 822 +0.2%
$IBEX 9026 -0.15%
$MIB 27575 +0.2%
$SMI 12458 +0.45%
$MOEX 4170 -0.35% 🪆

🇺🇸 futures firm ↗️

$ES 4682 +0.05%
$NQ 16359 +0.1%
$RTY 2406 +0.25%

$VIX 15.55

After opening higher and getting slammed yesterday, metals are giving it another go ↗️

$GOLD 1799 +0.35% with $GVZ 15.87
$SILVER 28.927 +0.05% with $VXSLV 29.46
$COPPER 4.348 +0.65%
$PLAT 1035 +0.65%
$PALL 2029 +1.65%
$ALI 2545 -0.35%
$ZINC 3162 -2.24% 🔻🔻

OPEC+ told Joe no 🛢️ for you! and promptly sold off hard with BRENT -1.27%

Hydrocarbons mostly ↗️ this morning

$WTIC 79.56 +1.0% with $OVX 38.56
$BRENT 81.00 +0.6%
$GASO 2.304 +0.45%
$NATGAS 5.583 -2.35% 🔻

Grains firm ↗️

$WHEAT 779 +0.8%
$CORN 561 +0.35%
$SOYB 1222 unch
$SUGAR 19.63 unch

☕️ 208 -0.5% (Thursday)

The $USD closed +0.52% on Powell's 👊🥣 taper; trading ↗️ this morning

$USD 94.41 +0.07%
$EUR 1.1547 -0.04%
$GBP 1.345 -0.36%
$AUD 0.738 +0.29%
$USDJPY 113.78 +0.02%
$USDCHF 0.9135 +0.13%
$USDCAD 1.246 +0.08%
$USDRUB 71.755 -0.18% 🔺

UST yields came down across the curve yesterday and are little changed ↔️ this morning

After the event - MOVE 64.61 🔻
10/2s 109.8 BPS 🔻

2Y .435
5Y 1.115
10Y 1.523
30Y 1.95

Global 10Ys mostly ↘️
AUS 1.807

#NFP is the number dujour

And the big #quad2 question is whether we get a return of the 🐻 #steepener on the news.

💪 $USD and $TNX 🔻 is not what you want to see if you're a ♉️ on cyclicals and financials

Have a super profitable 💰 day and a ☺️ weekend!

BIG jobs beat on #NFP and the bond market…

Does nothing

10/2s come in

Meh 😑

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More from @tdarling1

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

7 Nov

@Hedgeye

Weekly Global Macro Review 10/07/21

1/15

@Hedgeye calls it #Quad2 reflation, but I rather prefer @jam_croissant’s colorful description of “endless gamma squeezes” oh so reminiscent of 🎉🍾🥳 like it’s 1999!

Let’s dig into the macro 🧮 for the week

2/15

A 🕊 #FOMC on Wednesday and a 💪🏼 #NFP report on Friday with underlying wage #inflation of 4.9% y/y was enough to ignite a rally in the $UST market ↗️

WTF, you say?

3/15

Indeed, the MOVE 66.30 ↘️ from 78.34 on Tuesday as the 10/2s curve remained 🥞 at 105

2Y .405 -9.6 bps
5Y 1.056 -12.9 bps
10Y 1.455 -10.6 bps
30Y 1.888 -5.1 bps

Chart: Despite a strong #NFP, the $TNX ↘️ -10.6 BPS to 1.455 and at critical support

Read 19 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

31 Oct

🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review - October 2021

1/15

Crude 🚀 along with domestic equities as vol ↘️

The 10/2 curve ↗️ then ↘️ sharply with short-end 🚀

Grains ↗️ with 🌽 &🌾💪🏼

AUD 🦘🔺 and JPY 🈹 🔻

Let’s dig in to the 🧮!

2/15

Commodities led the #inflation trade higher with the $CRB +3.83% and a new cycle high.

3/15

🛢 and ⛽️ 🚀 to new cycle highs while Natty 🪓 at 6.47

$WTIC 83.57 +11.38%
$BRENT 84.38 +7.46%
$GASO 2.37 +8.22%
$NATGAS 5.43 -7.52%

Chart: $WTIC +11.38% for October is up 72% in 2021

Read 17 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

29 Oct

Hello Friday and the last trading day of October!

MTD returns
$WTIC +10.37%
$CORN +4.84%
$CRB +4.17%
$COPPER +3.07%

$GOLD +2.60%
$USD -0.97%

$COMPQ +6.92%
$SPX +6.71%
$CAC +4.36%
$DAX +2.85%
$KOSPI -1.93%
$VIX 16.53 -661 BPS

$UST2Y +22 BPS
$UST10Y +5 BPS

Let's dig into 🧮!

Asia closed ↔️ on the day #dispersion

$NIKK 28893 +0.25% 🔺
$SSEC 3547 +0.8% 🔺
$IDX 6591 +1.05% 🔺

$TWII 16897 -0.3% 🔻
$HSI 25377 -0.7% 🔻
$KOSPI 2971 -1.3% 🔻

Australia ↘️
$ASX 7324 -1.45%

India ↘️
$BSE 59124 -1.4%

Europe decidedly ↘️

$DAX 15570 -0.75%
$FTSE 7230 -0.25%
$CAC 6782 -0.35%
$AEX 805 -0.95%
$IBEX 9023 -0.05%
$MIB 26803 -0.3%
$SMI 12081 -0.6%
$MOEX 4150 -0.95% 🪆

Read 10 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

27 Sep

Hello, Monday!

🛢️ and ⛽️ looking 🔥

Let's dig into the 🧮

Asia closed ↔️

$NIKK 30240 -0.05% ♉️
$SSEC 3583 -0.85%
$TWII 17314 +0.3%
$HSI 24187 unch
$KOSPI 3234 +0.3% 🐻

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7384 +0.6%

India ↗️
$BSE 60135 +0.15%

European bourses opening ↗️

$DAX 15665 +0.85%
$FTSE 7074 +0.3%
$CAC 6679 +0.6%
$AEX 793 +0.2%
$IBEX 8935 +0.7%
$MIB 26075 +0.4%
$SMI 11824 +0.05%
$MOEX 4073 +0.85% 🪆

Read 12 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

26 Sep

Global macro review 09/26/21

1/10

What a week!
$VIX 🚀 to 28.79 on ever grand 😱 only to ↘️ into FOMC, closing 17.75 ↘️

$RVX 24.61 -6.9%
$VXN - 20.93 -6.02%
$VXEEM 23.93 +23.93 👁‍🗨

Chart: $VIX put in a new high only to crash -38% leaving Monday put buyers with a 💼 of 🐝🐝

2/10

Despite (or maybe because of) the volatility, US equities closed higher on the week

$SPX +0.51% (w) -1.2% (t) +4.08% (T) ♉️
$COMPQ +0.02% (w) -0.54% (t) +4.79% (T) ♉️
$IWM +0.26% (w) -1.48% (t) -3.97% (T) 🐻

Chart: $SPX ↘️ 5.3% before retracing +3.5% off the Monday low

3/10

Energy and financials led US sectors ↗️
$XLE +3.2%
$XLF +1.7%
$XLK +0.79%

REITs, utes, and staples lagged
$XLRE -2.01%
$XLU -1.90%
$XLP -1.04%

Chart: XLE forming a base off July 19 and Aug 19 lows, ♉️ trade +3.2% but still 🐻 Trend -8.0%.

Read 13 tweets

Ted Darling

@tdarling1

24 Sep

Hello Friday!

What a week! 🎢

But you'd never know it from the average of things

Week to date score board
$SPX +0.36%
$USD -0.16%
$WTIC +2.06%
$COPPER -0.35%
$GOLD -0.09%
$TNX +2.92%
$VIX -10.48% <<

Let's dig into the early morning 🧮

🇯🇵 is ichiban 🥇 into the Asian close ↔️

$NIKK 30249 +2.05% 🇯🇵
$SSEC 3613 -0.8%
$TWII 17260 +1.05%
$HSI 24130 -1.55% 🔻
$KOSPI 3125 -0.05%
$IDX 6145 +0.05%

Australia ↘️
7343 -0.35%

India ↗️
$BSE 50962 +0.15%

After a nice 🎉 that saw $FEZ +1.75% for the week, Europe is trading ↘️ at the open

$DAX 7045 -0.9%
$FTSE 7045 -0.45%
$CAC 6629 -1.05%
$AEX 793 -0.95%
$IBEX 8837 -0.45%
$MIB 25942 -0.55%
$SMI 11837 -0.85%
$MOEX 4039 -0.35%

Read 10 tweets

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