Weekly Global Macro Review 10/07/21

1/15

@hedgeye calls it #Quad2 reflation, but I rather prefer @jam_croissantโ€™s colorful description of โ€œendless gamma squeezesโ€ oh so reminiscent of ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿพ๐Ÿฅณ like itโ€™s 1999!

Letโ€™s dig into the macro ๐Ÿงฎ for the week
2/15

A ๐Ÿ•Š #FOMC on Wednesday and a ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿผ #NFP report on Friday with underlying wage #inflation of 4.9% y/y was enough to ignite a rally in the $UST market โ†—๏ธ

WTF, you say?
3/15

Indeed, the MOVE 66.30 โ†˜๏ธ from 78.34 on Tuesday as the 10/2s curve remained ๐Ÿฅž at 105

2Y .405 -9.6 bps
5Y 1.056 -12.9 bps
10Y 1.455 -10.6 bps
30Y 1.888 -5.1 bps

Chart: Despite a strong #NFP, the $TNX โ†˜๏ธ -10.6 BPS to 1.455 and at critical support
4/15

Bond ETFs rallied โ†—๏ธ led by convertibles and long duration with dividends paid on Friday

$CWB +1.37%
$TLT +1.22%
$LQD +1.21%
$BNDX +1.04%
$IEF +1.01%
$HYG +0.98%
$TIP +0.97%
$BND +0.7%
$IVOL +0.62%

Chart: With this move, $TLT is now โ™‰๏ธ (t) +5.23% and (T) +1.15% but โ›…๏ธ
5/15

This move โ†—๏ธ in the bond market begs the question of whether #inflation has peaked ๐Ÿ”?

Chart: $CRB -1.13% after hitting a cycle ๐Ÿ” the previous week
5a/15

Chart: $INFL -0.57% also ๐Ÿ” last week and โ†˜๏ธ this week
6/15

Indeed, hydrocarbons ๐Ÿ›ขโ›ฝ๏ธ came under pressure โ†˜๏ธ , even as OPEC+ refused JBโ€™s request

$WTIC 81.27 -2.75% with $OVX 37.84
$BRENT 82.55 -2.17%
$GASO 2.32 -2.11%
$NATGAS 5.52 +1.66% ๐Ÿ”บ

Chart: $WTIC remains โ™‰๏ธ (t) +2.42% and (T) +19.02% BUT momentum ๐ŸŽข is rolling over
7/15

Grains were โ†”๏ธ on the week with the big 3 โ†˜๏ธ

$WHEAT 676 -0.68%
$CORN 553 -2.68%
$SOYB 1204 -3.63%
$SUGAR 19.90 +3.27% ๐Ÿ”บ

โ˜•๏ธ 204 -0.2%

Chart: $CORN flipped to neutral (T) -0.63% but remains โ™‰๏ธ (t) +4.24%
8/15

While $COPPER was โ†˜๏ธ, precious metals traded โ†˜๏ธ

$COPPER 4.34 -0.69%
$SILVER 24.16 +0.88% with $VXSLV 29.84 ๐Ÿ”บ
$PLAT 1036 +1.48% โ™‰๏ธ
$GOLD 1817 +1.84% with $GVZ 16.64 ๐Ÿ”บ

Chart: $GOLD is now โ™‰๏ธ (t) +3.38% and (T) +3.05%. Do with that as you may โ›…๏ธ
9/15

With SPX Q321 company sales +18.85% and earnings +41.8% per @hedgeye, domestic equities ๐Ÿš€ to new ATHs with small caps leading

$IWM 242 +6.03%
$COMPQ 15972 +3.05%
$SPX 4698 +2.0%

Chart: $IWM broke from a multi-month trading range with room to ๐Ÿƒ๐Ÿฟโ€โ™€๏ธ
10/15

Top US Sectors
$XLY +5.03%
$XLK +3.44%
$XLB +3.17%
$XLP +2.46%

Underperformers
$XLV -0.72%
$XLF -0.6%
$XLU +0.46%

Chart: $XLY โ™‰๏ธ is +15.7% over (t) duration and +16.71% over past 3 months ๐Ÿ‹ #squeeze #parabola
10a/15

Chart: Retail ๐Ÿช busted a move this week with the $XRT +7.85%
10b/15

Dark pool players โ™ฅ๏ธโ™ ๏ธโ™ฆ๏ธโ™ฃ๏ธ bought the $FOMC with $DIX โ†—๏ธ to 47 but took ๐Ÿ’ฐ on Friday, per @SqueezeMetrics ๐Ÿ‹

Chart link to $DIX: squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
11/15

Major international indices โ†”๏ธ with ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทโ†—๏ธ and ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ฐโ†˜๏ธ

$CAC 7041 +3.08%
$NIKK +2.49%
$DAX 16054 +2.33%
$KOSPI 2969 -0.05%
$SSEC 3492 -1.57%
$HSI 24870 -2.0%

Chart: $NIKK flipped to โ™‰๏ธ (t) +5.57% and (T) +6.44%
12/15

Strongest internatโ€™l ETFs

$EWJ +2.87%
$EWQ +2.77%
$EWW +2.73%
$EWI +2.69%

Weakest
$FXI -2.45%
$IDX -1.66%
$EDEN -0.58%
13/15

Little change to the $USD on the surface of things, but โ†—๏ธ sharply vs. ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ and ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง

$USD 94.207 +0.09%
$JPY 0.882 +0.52%
$CHF 1.096 +0.34%
$EUR 1.157 +0.07%
$CAD 0.803 -0.61%
$GBP 1.35 -1.4%
$AUD 0.74 -1.58%

Chart: A ๐Ÿ•Š BOE led to a steep โ†˜๏ธ in the $GBP ๐Ÿป
14/15

New buy signals:
EWJ, EWW, INDA, EWD, XRT, XME, XLP, GLD, TLT

New sell signals
DBB, FXI
15/15

Despite a #FOMC threat to take the ๐Ÿ‘Š๐Ÿฅฃ away, equity investors ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿพ๐Ÿฅณ like itโ€™s 1999.

Bond investors sniffed an #inflation ๐Ÿ” and joined the ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿพ๐Ÿฅณ

Some #MeanReversion expected this week - especially since the $DIX took ๐Ÿค‘ off the ๐Ÿฝ

Have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ week!
Addendum

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More from @tdarling1

5 Nov
Hello Friday!

W/MTD

$NIKK +3.12%
$COMPQ +2.85%
$DAX +2.17%
$SPX +1.62%
$KOSPI +0.42%

$CRB -1.79%
$NATGAS +5.34%
$COPPER -1.09%
$CORN -1.58%
$WTIC -5.70%

$TLT -0.27%
$IEF +0.46%
$SHY +0.13%

$USD +0.23%
$GOLD +0.54%

Let's dig into the wee hour ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed with a โ†˜๏ธ bias

$NIKK 29612 -0.6%
$SSEC 3492 -1.0%
$TWII 17297 +1.3% ๐Ÿ”บ
$KOSPI 2069 -0.45%
$IDX 6582 -0.05%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7457 +0.4%

India โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 60068 unch/closed
Europe opened with a โ†—๏ธ bias

$DAX 16021 -0.05%
$FTSE 7308 +0.4%
$CAC 7006 +0.25%
$AEX 822 +0.2%
$IBEX 9026 -0.15%
$MIB 27575 +0.2%
$SMI 12458 +0.45%
$MOEX 4170 -0.35% ๐Ÿช†
Read 11 tweets
31 Oct
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review - October 2021

1/15

Crude ๐Ÿš€ along with domestic equities as vol โ†˜๏ธ

The 10/2 curve โ†—๏ธ then โ†˜๏ธ sharply with short-end ๐Ÿš€

Grains โ†—๏ธ with ๐ŸŒฝ &๐ŸŒพ๐Ÿ’ช๐Ÿผ

AUD ๐Ÿฆ˜๐Ÿ”บ and JPY ๐Ÿˆน ๐Ÿ”ป

Letโ€™s dig in to the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/15

Commodities led the #inflation trade higher with the $CRB +3.83% and a new cycle high.
3/15

๐Ÿ›ข and โ›ฝ๏ธ ๐Ÿš€ to new cycle highs while Natty ๐Ÿช“ at 6.47

$WTIC 83.57 +11.38%
$BRENT 84.38 +7.46%
$GASO 2.37 +8.22%
$NATGAS 5.43 -7.52%

Chart: $WTIC +11.38% for October is up 72% in 2021
Read 17 tweets
29 Oct
Hello Friday and the last trading day of October!

MTD returns
$WTIC +10.37%
$CORN +4.84%
$CRB +4.17%
$COPPER +3.07%

$GOLD +2.60%
$USD -0.97%

$COMPQ +6.92%
$SPX +6.71%
$CAC +4.36%
$DAX +2.85%
$KOSPI -1.93%
$VIX 16.53 -661 BPS

$UST2Y +22 BPS
$UST10Y +5 BPS

Let's dig into ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ on the day #dispersion

$NIKK 28893 +0.25% ๐Ÿ”บ
$SSEC 3547 +0.8% ๐Ÿ”บ
$IDX 6591 +1.05% ๐Ÿ”บ

$TWII 16897 -0.3% ๐Ÿ”ป
$HSI 25377 -0.7% ๐Ÿ”ป
$KOSPI 2971 -1.3% ๐Ÿ”ป

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7324 -1.45%

India โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 59124 -1.4%
Europe decidedly โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 15570 -0.75%
$FTSE 7230 -0.25%
$CAC 6782 -0.35%
$AEX 805 -0.95%
$IBEX 9023 -0.05%
$MIB 26803 -0.3%
$SMI 12081 -0.6%
$MOEX 4150 -0.95% ๐Ÿช†
Read 10 tweets
27 Sep
Hello, Monday!

๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ and โ›ฝ๏ธ looking ๐Ÿ”ฅ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ
Asia closed โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 30240 -0.05% โ™‰๏ธ
$SSEC 3583 -0.85%
$TWII 17314 +0.3%
$HSI 24187 unch
$KOSPI 3234 +0.3% ๐Ÿป

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7384 +0.6%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 60135 +0.15%
European bourses opening โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 15665 +0.85%
$FTSE 7074 +0.3%
$CAC 6679 +0.6%
$AEX 793 +0.2%
$IBEX 8935 +0.7%
$MIB 26075 +0.4%
$SMI 11824 +0.05%
$MOEX 4073 +0.85% ๐Ÿช†
Read 12 tweets
26 Sep
Global macro review 09/26/21

1/10

What a week!
$VIX ๐Ÿš€ to 28.79 on ever grand ๐Ÿ˜ฑ only to โ†˜๏ธ into FOMC, closing 17.75 โ†˜๏ธ

$RVX 24.61 -6.9%
$VXN - 20.93 -6.02%
$VXEEM 23.93 +23.93 ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ

Chart: $VIX put in a new high only to crash -38% leaving Monday put buyers with a ๐Ÿ’ผ of ๐Ÿ๐Ÿ
2/10

Despite (or maybe because of) the volatility, US equities closed higher on the week

$SPX +0.51% (w) -1.2% (t) +4.08% (T) โ™‰๏ธ
$COMPQ +0.02% (w) -0.54% (t) +4.79% (T) โ™‰๏ธ
$IWM +0.26% (w) -1.48% (t) -3.97% (T) ๐Ÿป

Chart: $SPX โ†˜๏ธ 5.3% before retracing +3.5% off the Monday low
3/10

Energy and financials led US sectors โ†—๏ธ
$XLE +3.2%
$XLF +1.7%
$XLK +0.79%

REITs, utes, and staples lagged
$XLRE -2.01%
$XLU -1.90%
$XLP -1.04%

Chart: XLE forming a base off July 19 and Aug 19 lows, โ™‰๏ธ trade +3.2% but still ๐Ÿป Trend -8.0%.
Read 13 tweets
24 Sep
Hello Friday!

What a week! ๐ŸŽข

But you'd never know it from the average of things

Week to date score board
$SPX +0.36%
$USD -0.16%
$WTIC +2.06%
$COPPER -0.35%
$GOLD -0.09%
$TNX +2.92%
$VIX -10.48% <<

Let's dig into the early morning ๐Ÿงฎ
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต is ichiban ๐Ÿฅ‡ into the Asian close โ†”๏ธ

$NIKK 30249 +2.05% ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต
$SSEC 3613 -0.8%
$TWII 17260 +1.05%
$HSI 24130 -1.55% ๐Ÿ”ป
$KOSPI 3125 -0.05%
$IDX 6145 +0.05%

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
7343 -0.35%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 50962 +0.15%
After a nice ๐ŸŽ‰ that saw $FEZ +1.75% for the week, Europe is trading โ†˜๏ธ at the open

$DAX 7045 -0.9%
$FTSE 7045 -0.45%
$CAC 6629 -1.05%
$AEX 793 -0.95%
$IBEX 8837 -0.45%
$MIB 25942 -0.55%
$SMI 11837 -0.85%
$MOEX 4039 -0.35%
Read 10 tweets

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