Last week the #BASON once again called 8 out of 9 in the right direction, and once again had pinpoint accuracy for the Dow (0.6% error), the S&P (1.2% error), oil (0.5% error), TSLA (1.9% error), while the AAPL price prediction was almost perfect (0.02% error!).
In terms of collected profits on the trading strategy, this was the best week yet.

Our weekly profit was $2045, or an average 146% return!

This doubled our weekly winnings, and our total profits for the first 4 weeks stand at $4100.
Two strategies were used for the week:

(1) iron condor for the SPY 05/11, at 460/461 to 469/470

The S&P500 ended at 4697, but the SPY ended just below our upper interval, at 468.5, allowing us to capture the full $400 from its initial sale. Close, but in the money :)
(2) we bought two SPY $455 calls with 05/11 expiry

As the S&P gained 0.8% that Friday morning (the day of the options expiry), rising to 4714 at one point, I decided to hedge our exposure and sold the 2 calls for a total of $3045...
...This was in case our iron condor expires worthless and we’re faced with a $600 loss. But the S&P went down after that, just enough for the iron condor to reap another reward.
That week, instead of the usual $1000 we invested $1400 for the two calls, making the total profit from the call strategy $1645.

Adding this to the $400 from the iron condor, our weekly profit was $2045, or an average 146% return!

Not bad at all!
So, thank you BASON, and a big thank you to our users who will be reaping those rewards at the end of the competition!

Stick around, participate in our competition regularly to get this info before others get it, and try to make some profits from it.
Here is the performance summary (also subscribe to the newsletter): oraclum.substack.com/p/results-146-…

And here is the direct link to the competition: survey.oraclum.co.uk/stock-market

Good luck!

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More from @wolf_vukovic

8 Nov
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has gone down 52% since its early October peak (largest peak since '08)

Last time it went down so quickly was just before the '08 crisis, announcing the collapse of international trade.

But in today's context, is this good news or bad news?
👇🧵
1/ The BDI, listed on the London-based Baltic Exchange, measures the costs of transporting various important raw materials by sea (e.g. coal, iron ore, grain).

It takes into account shipping routes, timing of delivery, ship capacity, and is a widely used benchmark in shipping.
2/ Generally, it is also considered to be a very important leading economic indicator:

When it goes 📈 , it signals high demand for shipping and hence booming international trade. 👍

When it goes 📉 it signals a decline of demand, and an upcoming economic crisis. 👎
Read 13 tweets
24 Oct
There has been ample talk about an upcoming market #crash ever since, well, the previous crash.

People point to, among other things, Shiller’s CAPE ratio, at a 38 multiple (second highest ever).

How do we know if we really are in a #bubble? A thread is due.
Let’s dive in👇🧵
1/ Is there anything we can use to tell whether a market is indeed in a bubble? To borrow a quote from The Big Short:

Lawrence Fields: “Actually, no one can see a bubble... that's what makes it a bubble.”

Michael Burry: “That's dumb, Lawrence. There are always markers.”
2/ Let’s examine those “markers” by revisiting what the top authority on market irrationality and exuberance has to say about it – Nobel winner @RobertJShiller

His book Irrational Exuberance anticipated both the 2000 dot-com bubble burst and the 2006 housing bubble burst.
Read 26 tweets
21 Oct
Today $DWAC went up 365% after a merger with #Trump’s new media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the idea of which is to launch an alternative social network to disrupt the FAANGs.

I read TMTG’s pitch deck (did MY OWN research!!!) and here’s what I think👇🧵
1/ The idea is to create a new media powerhouse, with a streaming and news service that aims to disrupt CNN, $NFLX & $DIS+ (Fox news too?), and take on $AMZN in the long run.

The biggest impact ofc was the announcement of launching a new social network to disrupt $FB and $TWTR
2/ The name of the new social network? TRUTH Social.

Mission: “stand up to the tyranny of Big Tech.”

The premise: $TWTR and $FB banned Trump from their platforms but did not ban the Taliban.
Read 16 tweets
18 Oct
Natural gas prices have gone up 220% since March this year. Oil has gone up 140% in the same period (and 440% from its April 2020 trough).

Why is this happening? Time for a quick (14-tweet) thread. 👇🧵
1/ Commodity and energy prices are basically all following a similar trend. Huge post-COVID demand + limited supply and supply chain bottlenecks = high prices

(Econ 101)

Should you be concerned?
2/ Let’s start with #oil.

Oil turned negative at one point in April 2020, ending that week at $18 a barrel, but has since rebounded to over $80, causing shortages at gas stations and even price controls in some countries.
Read 15 tweets

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