Thread by @GhoshArunabha

#Thread
#Carbonequation points to ltd #carbonbudget. There is also a #trustequation linked to past (in)actions. If trust equation is undermined, there'd be little hope 4 integrity of carbon equation. @climateactiontr’s analysis imp but incomplete. Read👇

https://twitter.com/climateactiontr/status/1458072899122655236?s=20

Here are 6 reasons:
1. Let's start with the future.
Even with the latest pledges, by 2030, #China, the #US & the #EU would consume 45% of available carbon space for 1.5 °C.
2. By 2050, they will consume nearly 90% of the available carbon space.

https://twitter.com/CEEWIndia/status/1458015816566312966?s=20

2/n

3. Shall we open the history books now?
In the pre-2020 #climateaction regime, developed countries collectively consumed a whopping 25 GtCO2eq additional carbon space - equivalent to almost 50% of annual global emissions.

https://twitter.com/CEEWIndia/status/1420347773853921286?s=20

3/n

4. A key group of major developed countries — including all G7 countries — collectively saw a mere 3.7% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2019 over 1990 levels.
Now, where does the #credibilitygap really lie?
Read: bit.ly/CEEW_Pre-2020 4/n

Let's look at examples:
- The US did not even participate in the pre-2020 climate agreements!
- It consumed an additional carbon space of ~14 GtCO2 eq in the pre-2020 period.
- It has also not paid its fair share of #climatefinance 5/n

- China's coal production is projected to decrease by only 8% between 2020 & 2030.
- Its oil & gas production is projected to increase by 5% & 58% by 2030, respectively.
- China's post-2020 emissions would by itself increase the global temperature by almost 0.33°C
6/n

To avoid billions of $ as non-compliance penalties, Canada withdrew from the Kyoto regime. Its national emissions instead of decreasing rose by 21% from 1990 levels.
Similarly, Russia, & Japan also sat out of either one or both key commitment periods in the pre-2020 regime.
7/n

5. Now, let's talk #climatefinance! The $100 bn, a promise made in 2009, which was to be delivered by 2020, is now 'expected' to be delivered only by 2023. Developed countries are refusing to agree on a definition of climate finance let alone ramp it up. 8/n

This is over and above the #sustainableinvestment that needs to flow in the trillions to build the #sustainableinfrastructure in #emergingeconomies, whose ambitions are met with a simple "You're too risky to invest in." 9/n

But when more than 2 dozen climate finance initiatives are analysed, not one of them promises to #derisk investments in #developingcountries at scale. 10/n

6. The average per capita emissions of G20 countries is 7.88 metric tons per capita, a staggering 4.4x India’s (for 2018). Developing countries must be given a fair share of #carbonspace to meet their development priorities. 11/n

The #energytransition needs to be brought closer to people to #powerlivelihoods. A #justtransition cannot be a handout of a solar lantern to a poor farmer in Africa but a subsidy for an electric SUV in California. There's no #climateaction without #sustainablelifestyles. 12/n

It is critical that ALL countries are held to account. But the spotlight must be put on those that have repeatedly failed to meet their commitments. Not doing so makes analytical work on climate action and emissions gap a fig leaf for escaping accountability. 13/n

Bridging the #emissionsgap is contingent on bridging the #credibilitygap. Let's demand #climateaction not just #climatepromises. 14/n