Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #carbonbudget

Most recents (14)

"Six models are used in a recent study to analyze the climatic, environmental & socio-economic consequences of #overshooting a C budget consistent with the 1.5°C temp target along the cause-effect chain from emissions & #CarbonRemovals to climate risks & impact."
🧵 Image
"Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the #CarbonBudget #overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35°C, respectively."
Findings of this study highlight that "investigating #overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems."
Read 10 tweets
1. Tuesday 🧵PART 2. Before we talk about #ClimateChange, we might have a look at what happens to all the #Carbon coming off the bogs and into the rivers and lakes, i.e. the transport of terrestrials stores of Carbon to the sea. This is a great infographic from the @c_cascades Infographic showing how car...
2. Current estimates put this at about 5.1 Pg of C per year, although most people expect this to rise, considering the high uncertainty, ongoing anthropogenic impacts, and continual refinement of the science…
3. One of the parts of this carbon is Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) which is the brown colour that you see in bog streams – those of you with water supplies coming off bogs will be familiar with this kind of change
Read 21 tweets
#Carbonequation points to ltd #carbonbudget. There is also a #trustequation linked to past (in)actions. If trust equation is undermined, there'd be little hope 4 integrity of carbon equation. @climateactiontr’s analysis imp but incomplete. Read👇
Here are 6 reasons:
1. Let's start with the future.
Even with the latest pledges, by 2030, #China, the #US & the #EU would consume 45% of available carbon space for 1.5 °C.
2. By 2050, they will consume nearly 90% of the available carbon space.
3. Shall we open the history books now?
In the pre-2020 #climateaction regime, developed countries collectively consumed a whopping 25 GtCO2eq additional carbon space - equivalent to almost 50% of annual global emissions.
Read 14 tweets
#Thread #NewStudy
Netzero announcements ✅
But is the available carbon space being fairly shared?
➡️by 2050, China, the US, & the EU are likely to occupy over 90% of the available 1.5°C #carbonspace.
➡️by 2030, they would consume 45% of the available carbon space.

Read 👇
The study also found that the #netzero commitments made by the 10 big emitters are inadequate and would surpass the 1.5°C #carbon space by 33% by 2050.
Read #pressrelease📜:
We propose that:
➡️the US, China & the EU should consider advancing their #netzero years by a decade & aim to turn net negative by 2050.
✅This would help contain warming within the 1.5°C #carbonbudget threshold suggested by the recent #IPCC report.
Read 6 tweets
La discussione sulla #transizioneenergetica sta trascurando due fenomeni cruciali che ne minano la fattibilità nei tempi e modi stabiliti:

il “cannibalismo energetico” e “l’effetto Regina Rossa”

l'analisi di Michele Manfroni, PhD student

Cannibalismo energetico

Investire in infrastrutture rinnovabili in un’economia alimentata da fossili (sempre + #carbonintensive) significa inevitabilmente aumentare le emissioni nel breve periodo col rischio di sforare il #carbonbudget prima del 2050

Costruire infrastrutture "verdi" comporta un notevole accumulo di "embodied energy" (detta anche “energia grigia”) nel sistema economico

ovvero l’energia associata con la produzione di qualsiasi bene o servizio, ‘incorporata’ nell’oggetto stesso.

Read 12 tweets
1/6 Our 🌎 is heating and losing crucial carbon sinks. (Look at the #Amazon!)

🌳Tackling climate change means decarbonizing the economy but also recarbonizing our ecosystems
🦥I'm looking at the role of mammals in this task

But wait, mammals absorb CO2?⬇️
#DICECON21 #ConEffect
2/6 Well no *but* they mediate carbon flux:

Grazing by🦌🦘can stimulate🌿growth (more CO2 absorbed). Too much grazing does the opposite!

🐺🦁 influence plant growth by keeping 🦌 in check.
Meanwhile🐰 can ⬆️ soil carbon by digging. So much going on!

#DICECON21 #ConEffect
3/6 Mammal functions are so complex #climate scientists are ignoring them in #carbonbudget relying on 🛰️ images of 🌍vegetation.

But their role matters: by some estimates 🐺control of 🦌in North America could offset emissions of up to 20mn 🚗/year!

#DICECON21 #ConEffect
Read 7 tweets
Tuning an ear into online #earthforum21 between my day job. Started with sobering truths on carbon budgets from @KevinClimate... In particular the fundamental flaw of #netzero language of recent years 1/
@TyndallCentre @PlymUni
The #netzero delusion is a way for nations to continue business as usual with pitiful ambitions of a few % reduction per annum while deferring huge obligations on future generations 2/
Our present trajectory re the absolute global carbon budget, is premised upon our grandchildren deploying massive global scale CO2 sequestration technologies we have barely yet explored... 3/
Read 5 tweets
Our second Zero In Report launches today!

How can the latest #climate models help us understand where #GlobalWarming is heading in the next few decades?

And how does COVID-19 affect future climate projections?…

Featuring work from across CONSTRAIN

Check out our blog:

And/or keep reading our short but sweet summary 🧵👇

Analysing the new #CMIP6 #climate models has helped us to understand where global temperatures are heading, depending on the emissions we produce.

Plus where we stand in terms of the #ParisAgreement - can we stay within 1.5 degrees of temperature rise?

Read 9 tweets
THREAD: Global Carbon Budget 2020

An unprecedented 2.4 GtCO₂ (7%) drop in emissions in 2020 due to COVID19 restrictions. But, daily emissions are already edging up towards levels last seen in late 2019.

2. A drop of 2.4 GtCO₂ has not been seen before, but emissions have not been this high either.

After the global financial crisis emissions increased 1.7GtCO₂ in 2010. Will this record increase be surpassed in 2021?

Relative changes of >±7% were common before 1950...
3. Despite the rapid change in emissions, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations continued up as if COVID19 never happened.

* Emissions were high, as high as in 2012
* The relative change is smaller than interannual variability
* CO₂ is cumulative, so total emissions matter
Read 15 tweets
Webinar on tools for assessing national #climate pledges (NDCs) by @WRIClimate. @davidwaskow reminds: #ParisAgreement is meant to work thru an iterative process of increasing ambition (faster emission reductions), leading to #netzero emissions by 2050. (Thread 1/n)
The world is currently WAY over our #carbonbudget for where we need to be to align with #ParisAgreement. Orange= countries will do under any event; red = conditional (e.g., will do if they get needed finance). We have LOTSA emissions to reduce fast @davidwaskow @WRIClimate (2/n)
Of 21 indicators assessed for #ParisAgreement:
2 are on track (e.g., crop yields)
13 right direction but too slow (e.g., need electric vehicle sales to be 22x faster than now)
2 in wrong direction: forests, ag emissions
@davidwaskow from @climateactiontr, @WRIClimate et al 3/n
Read 16 tweets

Global fossil CO₂ emissions set to grow a slow 0.6% in 2019 [range: -0.2% to +1.5%] with robust growth in oil & natural gas, but a slight decline in coal.

#CarbonBudget #COP25 #ClimateAction…

We project global coal, oil, & gas emissions for 2019
* Natural gas up 2.6% [+1.3% to +3.9%], driving >50% of growth since 2012
* Oil up 0.9% [+1.3% to +3.9%] continuing trends
* Coal down -0.9% [-2.0% to +0.2%] continuing its woes
#CarbonBudget #COP25

By region
* China +2.6% [+0.7% to +4.4%], GDP vs stimulus
* USA -1.7% [-3.7% to +0.3%], coal -10%
* EU28 -1.7% [-3.4% to +0.1%], coal -10%
* India +1.8% [+0.7% to +3.7%], big monsoon, weak economy
* Others +0.5% [-0.8% to +1.8%], weak economy

Read 17 tweets
THREAD: In a new study in @nature we present a way to avoid the bias that burdens future generations and the risky strategies that current #climate change mitigation pathways suffer from.

A #climatetwitter explainer

#Fridays4Future #ClimateStrike #ParisAgreement

Existing #ClimateChange scenarios focus on reaching a target in 2100

but by doing so weirdly suggest that the best way to achieve a #climate target is to delay action first, miss it over the next decades, and then to try to make up for it later

This puts put a disproportionate burden on future generations, who:
-will suffer higher #climate impacts in their lives
-are burdened with later cleaning up the mess by actively pulling #CO2 out of the air

This strategy is very risky and can be avoided

Read 11 tweets
THREAD (Global Fossil CO₂ Emissions)

Global fossil CO₂ emissions are on track to rise more than 2% in 2018 (2.7%, range 1.8% to 3.7%). Emissions rose 1.6% in 2017 (leap-year adjusted) after a temporary slowdown from 2014 to 2016.

#CarbonBudget #COP24…
Countries that need to slowdown:
* China, up 4.7% [2.0–7.4%]
* India, up 6.3% [4.3–8.3%]
* Others (largely developing), up 1.8% [0.5–3.0%]

Countries that need faster reductions:
* USA, up 2.5% [0.5–4.5%]
* EU, down 0.7% [-2.6–1.3%]

#CarbonBudget #COP24…
There is a broad spread in CO₂ emissions per capita, but for a chance of 1.5°C or 2°C, countries with low per capita emissions also have to reduce emissions.

Yes, developed countries have to do more, but they can’t do it alone!

#CarbonBudget #COP24…
Read 10 tweets
Steeling myself with a strong coffee to sit down and read major new report on avoiding dangerous #climatechange (@IPCC_CH #SR15, available here: My takes to follow (1/n)
As always, the #peerreview effort by @IPCC_CH is Herculean. A couple hundred volunteer scientists read & cited 6,000+ studies to support conclusions w/ evidence. Responded to 42,001 comments in 3 rounds of review. The most robust process there is to establish scientific consensus
Now, this #SR15 report title is descriptive, but doesn't exactly roll off the tongue...
Read 59 tweets

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