Thread by @Usherwood

HMG thinks its aggressive strategy on Protocol is working in getting EU to move, so it's going to continue to push that

Let's think about why this is not the case

1/

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1446953825911427088

This belief has roots in mythology of WA/TCA negotiations, where Johnson Ian view that his erratic behaviour got former through hostile Parliament with some big wins on Protocol

2/

A cursory look at the various versions of that Protocol will show this wasn't actually the case, but the mythology has stuck

3/

Ditto the running down of the clock in the TCA last year was presented as a fine gambit to move EU positions, even though it didn't

If you've not yet read Barnier's diary, now might be a good time to: issue was always much more UK not having a position

4/

So to the present. HMG/Frost view is still only extreme pressure gets results, as EU would a bad deal than no deal

This is absolutely not the case, as we'll see

5/

Through this year, UK has used specific, narrow points to keep things unsettled

Sausages was never the real issue, but rather avoiding a 'normal' operation of Protocol

6/

Look at the summer's Command Paper, which spoke of numerous issues, but didn't offer a comprehensive alternative plan (mainly because there isn't one that's acceptable to both sides)

7/

This coming week's COM proposals are an attempt to try to close this down, by making a big offer to accommodate UK problems:
- in as fast as they were specifically set out;
- within legal constraints of both EU law and WA/TCA obligations

These 2 conditions matter

8/

EU is very aware of dangers in all this, so it's keeping the agenda as narrow as possible. That also minimise number of issues COM has to get member state buy-in on too

9/

But it's 2nd point that really matters

EU view is that UK has signed up to treaties, pacta sunt servanda, so UK will have to comply with these, one way or another

EU feels no obligation to re-open text, even as it wants to make text practical

10/

So basic problem is now that if UK has bought its own rhetoric, then it risks overstepping its actions (e.g. triggering Art.16) and it will suffer the (very much bigger than expected) consequences

11/

The worst of it is that I doubt HMG doesn't know all of this, but has painted itself into a corner

COM proposal is a [mixed metaphor alert!] ladder to let it climb down, so why not take it?

/end