"better data along does not guarantee better outcomes"
Especially when results coming from such data are actively dismissed and purposefully obfuscated.
On Feb 12 AB had enough data to be *certain* that w/o extra measures it will produce the 3rd wave.
1/
Especially when results coming from such data are actively dismissed and purposefully obfuscated.
On Feb 12 AB had enough data to be *certain* that w/o extra measures it will produce the 3rd wave.
1/
https://twitter.com/vb_jens/status/1390412766490423298
On Feb 12 AB had enough data to be *certain* that w/o extra measures it'll produce the 3rd wave.
It was *clear*.
Thank you everyone who contributed to the 3rd wave by saying things like: "models are wrong".
It was *clear*.
Thank you everyone who contributed to the 3rd wave by saying things like: "models are wrong".
Even w/ limited data, but knowing the properties of the phenomenon, models predict the future darn well.
On Feb 01 I knew, that if we won't implement measures, there'll be a 3rd wave.
On Mar 17 I could bet my soul, left kidney, and a collection of stuffies on that.
On Feb 01 I knew, that if we won't implement measures, there'll be a 3rd wave.
On Mar 17 I could bet my soul, left kidney, and a collection of stuffies on that.
Yet, in Mar I could hear such statements: "If I'd have to guess, I'd say that there is 70:30 chance that there won't be a 3rd wave".
It is not a benign statement. It implies that pandemic evaluation is in a domain of foggy guessing and not of a sharp scientific prediction.
..
4/
It is not a benign statement. It implies that pandemic evaluation is in a domain of foggy guessing and not of a sharp scientific prediction.
..
4/
It'd be silly to say "If I'd have to guess, the next eclipse will be on Sunday", bc there are astrophysicists who know very well when the solar eclipse will be. No need for random guessing.
Likewise, modellers do *know*. Respecting their knowledge and expertise would save lives.
Likewise, modellers do *know*. Respecting their knowledge and expertise would save lives.
Among others @CarolineColijn , @COVIDSciOntario , PHAC modellers, predicted the 3rd wave.
Those predictions had been dismissed, ignored, sometimes ridiculed.
Canadians and Albertans are paying for this dismissal with their health, lives and economical well-being.
6/
Those predictions had been dismissed, ignored, sometimes ridiculed.
Canadians and Albertans are paying for this dismissal with their health, lives and economical well-being.
6/
We cannot change the past.
But pandemic is not over.
Dear decision makers and decision makers' advisors, please start listening to modellers and mathematicians. And please do not mislead the public about the role and function of scientific method.
7/
But pandemic is not over.
Dear decision makers and decision makers' advisors, please start listening to modellers and mathematicians. And please do not mislead the public about the role and function of scientific method.
7/
And excellent simulations by @TheMemeticist predicted the 3rd wave as well.
Try running the simulation several times. Very educational about stochasticity.
trinket.io/python/a2c9985…
Try running the simulation several times. Very educational about stochasticity.
https://twitter.com/TheMemeticist/status/1370149224248057857?s=20
trinket.io/python/a2c9985…
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