Thread by @BaluSreevidya

Notes on Geopolitics Part 2 of 3

Paradigm shifts in Indian foreign policy

Making Ajit Doval the National Security Advisor was a much-anticipated move.

However, little did the world expect that a country like India would have the craft and dare to define its own terms while

it’s still a developing country.

Narendra Modi’s new style of leadership powered by Subramaniam Jaishankar’s diplomatic orchestrations and Doval’s formidable combination of master strategy and meticulous footwork enabled India to wield a commanding position in the

emerging multi-polar world.

Modi’s swearing in ceremony asserted India’s lead role in the SAARC countries, but it was the Paris summit on climate change that displayed India’s changing geopolitics in the world arena.

It was obvious from the declaration of ‘climate justice’ by

Narendra Modi that India was dominating the backdoor negotiations even at the face of apparent arm twists or ‘accidental weather changes’ in the south of India at that time.

The corollary of India’s bilateral and multilateral discussions and the announcement of Sunshine Alliance

preceded, and succeeded Paris summit was the new face of India. An India that would not be led by terms that she did not negotiate.

Narendra Modi encapsulated his vision of foreign policy as India seeing every other country eye to eye, not below, not above.

Every deal we made with every country subsequently reflected this new power position of India.

Every instrument and apparatus we used for maintaining territorial integrity, economic cooperation, joint military exercises and participating in regional institutions such as Quad,

BRICS, ASEAN, SAARC, EAS and JIA further consolidated our regional assertiveness and presence.

Much to the grief of China, India started playing China’s game in her own turf – be it the action of RAW in the neighbouring states, in countering China’s economic hitmen with our own

investment framework, in fortifying our borders, or in the backroom orchestrations isolating China in indirect response to her alleged role in the recent biowar.

The core of our present foreign policy consists of a few key approaches.

1. An unwavering ‘India First’ approach which India shares with Putin’s Russia first policy, and Trump regime’s ‘Make America Great Again’ approach.

Unshackled from the straitjacket of non-alignment, India now keeps ‘what’s in it for us’ as her primary consideration for

bilateral or multilateral relationships and deals.

The subsidiary intentions such as Make in India, Start Up India, Stand Up India must be seen as the tools for advancing our India First policy.

2. A complex canvas of factors determining bilateral relations with key global players.

This flexible and complex approach allows India to continue to engage with a country on many fronts while disengaging on others.

This approach allows India to buy bulk drugs from China while banning their apps and continuing to stop border misadventures.

3. A mixed use of diplomacy and lobbying to solve protracted issues: what Nehru started in the late 1940’s by taking India’s internal issues to UN is

reversed today.

India has closed her gate on domestic issues for discussions externally. This she achieved by extensive international lobbying and isolation of alien countries who caused those internal issues.

India was able to get the world to isolate Pakistan post Pathankot

and was equally successful in turning the deaf ear of the world towards Pakistan’s futile cries on Kashmir.

The sudden sprouting of references to ‘terror-financing’ and ‘terror havens’ by world leaders like Modi and Putin was no accident.

India’s invisible hands have played a significant role in raising anti-China voices equally among global powers and the developing world in the post Covid world.

4. A policy of not playing to the rules India did not help develop: India no longer dances to the tunes of others.

She does not play the rules she did not help create. It started with the stance on climate change and extended to the Covid vaccine sharing in 2020.

Combined with the diplomacy and lobbying power, India commands a voice in the developing world.

This is evident from the way other countries following India’s cue and taking a stronger stance on many global matters recently.

5. An approach of keeping disparate allies: India had taken a paradigm shift in her stance on trilateral and multilateral relationships.

She broke decades long clandestine game with Israel during Modi’s historic visit of that country while abstaining from voting against HAMAS and maintaining a warm relationship with Iran.

In Putin’s own admission, he trusts Narendra Modi even while Shinzo Abe and Modi remained

very close friends. India agreed along with Russia for sourcing oil from Iran on non-US currency terms while having close relationship with US on several fronts including Defence.

Breaking equations that formed the fundamentals of foreign relations is a new game the world is

witnessing from a player like India.

6. An agenda-based approach for international issues: India supports a liberal and more humanitarian world order where little importance will be given to exceptionalism (US) and expansionism (China).

However, our stance is seldom defined by our ideals but more by our ulterior agenda be it climate change, terrorism, new warfare, drugs or monetary changes.

India’s undefined and unpredictable positions based on global or regional dynamics or volatilities make it tough for

countries like US and China to strategise proactively.

Our geopolitical discourse is rich with our vision of how we may lead from the front on its way to making a multipolar world.

7. A passive aggressive stance on engagement with key players: India is playing this game on

her front foot – be it a question of speaking to ISIS in Syria for freeing expatriates in Iraq, or in keeping the Baloch decibels a notch higher than Kashmir.

The other side of the coin of ‘what is in it for me’ question of India is ‘what will you lose’ question for the

countries of India’s immediate and long-term interest.

This stance is also reaching out and affecting non-geographic players of imperialism such as the corporatocracy and vested global interests.

Those who learnt to play India’s game on our terms include the most recent examples of the social media corporates operating in India.

End of Part 2 of 3.