JUST IN [Thread] 1. There's an increase in the nr of #COVID19 cases and the proportion of tests coming out positive, says @nicd_sa.
WHERE? Gauteng, mostly in Tshwane
AGE GROUPS in Tshwane = most affected:
- 10-29 years (past week)
- 20-44 at a higher education institute
2. Do the new cases signal the beginning of a fourth #COVID19 wave?
- We don't know yet, localised (in other words the cases are mostly only in Tshwane) increases in cases are expected
3. Is a new variant emerging?
- Genomic sequencing in SA shows no evidence of this. But it takes time to transport samples + analyse them, so the results we have go hand-in-hand with a bit of a delay, which means we're mostly looking @ results of samples of a few weeks ago.
4. What do we know about previous #COVID19 waves in SA?
They were all driven by a new variant:
Wave 1: Wuhan variant
Wave 2: Beta
Wave 3: Delta
For Wave 4, we simply don't yet know if there will be a new variant.
5. What can you do to protect yourself? 1. Get vaccinated @ #COVID19. You can still get infected, but your chances of falling seriously ill = dramatically lower than those of unvaccinated people
2. Wear a mask, social distance, wash your hands, ventilate your house/work space
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[Thread]. 1. What will influence the severity of a 4th #COVID19 wave?
New variants.
We don't know if there will be a new variant, but we do know that each previous SA wave was driven by a different variant:
Wave 1: Original form of SARS-CoV-2
Wave 2: Beta
Wave 3: Delta
2. What can we not for certain say about a 4th #COVID wave?
* We cannot predict if + when a new variant will emerge + what it will look like
* SA's modellers = decided to use a variant that can escape immunity (make jabs work less well) 4 their modelling 2 look @ a 4th wave
3. What else can influence what a 4th #COVID19 wave looks like?
Vaccination coverage.
Where are we at?
* About 16 million adults, or 40% of adults, have received at least one dose of vaccine
* 34% of adults = fully vaccinated
2. What % of adults have received at least 1 dose of #COVISD19 vaccine, so 1 shot of #JnJ (fully vaccinated) or 1 shot of #Pfizer (partially vaccinated)?
39% of adults, or 15.5 million people
Why is this important? @healthza
's goal = 70% of adults must have had 1 jab by Dec
3. Will we make @heatlhza's goal to have 70% of adults vaccinated with 1 dose of #JnJ/#Pfizer by Dec?
No. @healthza
is now aiming for:
70% of adults of 50+
Where are we with this?
60+: 63.13%
50-59: 56.8%
Everyone of 50+ = 60.2% (so we're 9.8% or 1 mil jabs from the goal)
14 days to 3 months after taking the 2nd shot: :
- 94% effectiveness @ COVID-related death
- 92% effectiveness @ COVID-related hospitalisation
2. What is real-world effectiveness?
It’s data from an actual vaccine roll-out. During studies jabs = used under tightly controlled conditions. In the real world those conditions = more fluid. Real-world data = how well jabs work outside of a trial.
3. Is there a difference between the protection offered by 1 dose of the #Pfizer jab and 2 doses?
Yes.
- 1 dose = 78% effective @ hospitalisation (28 days after you’ve had a jab)
- 2 doses = 94% effective @ hospitalisation (14 days after the 2nd jab)