What we know and don't know about #Omicron (B 1.1.529)
1/ Reported in S. Africa Nov 24 from a sample from Nov 9. So it has been around for at least 3 weeks, possibly longer.
2/ Classified as Variant of Concern (VOC) on Nov 26
3/ Several mutations on the spike protein
4/ As of Nov 27, found in many other countries including Belgium, Botswana, Germany, Hong Kong, Israel, Italy, UK.
Seems widespread already.
5/ Why is it Omicron a variant of concern ?
First, it has spread rapidly in S. Africa, replacing Delta entirely in some areas. This ability to replace delta is striking because other variants have not been able to do that.
Second, the large number of mutations, esp mutations on the spike protein raise concerns that it may evade immunity from vaccination or prior infection and that therapies like monoclonal antibodies may not work.
6/ What we know so far about Omicron infections in South Africa?
-Almost all infections are in unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated
-Most infections are in persons in 20’s and 30’s
-No difference in the symptoms/ presentation so far
7/ What does this mean for travel?
-Travel bans instituted by US, UK, EU for travelers from several countries
-More stringent requirements pre/post arrival (see below, for India)
-Check before you travel - be prepared for changes at very short notice mohfw.gov.in/pdf/Guidelines…
10/ Global
•Improved vaccination rates around the world ASAP.
•More sequencing
•Although mRNA vaccines can be quickly modified to counter Omicron, half the world does not have access even to today's vaccines.
No one is safe until we are all safe
11/Testing
Current PCR tests continue to detect #Omicron
One of the 3 target genes is not detected on PCR (called S gene dropout). This feature can be used as a marker for this variant, pending confirmation by sequencing
Not yet known whether rapid tests will pick up Omicron
Officials said that "it's clear" that protection from mRNA COVID vaccines decreases over time, and that the US will recommend boosters for all, 8 months after primary vaccination
Let’s look at the evidence for boosters for ALL
Thread
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2/ In a NY Health Dept study of 10 million NY residents VE against hospitalization remained >90% in May to July 21 when delta comprised 80% of infections cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
3/ mRNA vaccines remain effective at preventing hospitalizations at 24 weeks after vaccination
2/ This study was done between Feb - May 2021. No deaths were seen in 8958 vaccinated healthcare workers. One death in 1609 unvaccinated healthcare workers.
3/ Protection began even after first dose. Single dose provided 95% protection from ICU admission. However, note that we don't know what proportion of cases @OffCMCVellore were due to B.1.617.2 (delta variant) or B.1.617.1 variant or wild type.
COVID associated Mucor is increasingly being reported in India.
Spores of fungi are common in the environment. Infection occurs when circumstances are right.
Immunosuppression and uncontrolled diabetes are main culprits
2/ Spores of mucor are breathed in and cause infection
Risk factors
- Prolonged/high dose steroids suppress the immune system and elevate blood sugars, which further increase risk
- uncontrolled diabetes
- Widespread antibiotics may contribute via overgrowth of fungi
3/ Two main forms of post Covid mucor: rhinocerebral and pulmonary.
In one case series:
- 95% of pts had diabetes, mean HbA1C was 10.5
- Onset at median of 22 days after onset of Covid symptoms
Vaccine hesitancy: My responses to the main concerns.
1) Vaccines were developed too fast.
Although developed at warp speed, none of the essential steps were skipped. The huge number of cases made accrual to trials much faster
2. Vaccines are not effective
In large trials, vaccines were 80-95% effective at preventing infection. They are even more effective at preventing hospitalization and death
Yes. They are not perfect, but are highly effective. Real world data confirms data from clinical trials.
3. Vaccines are not safe:
There is a small risk of severe allergic reactions (1 in 1 million for mRNA vaccines). There is a small risk of severe blood clots with J& J (1 in 500,000). Other side-effects are mild. Risk of serious side effects is small compared to risk from COVID