Thread by @BigManBakar

The Preview: GW14 - A thread

Greetings everyone, welcome to my latest preview thread where I address the most common dilemmas in the FPL community before we head into GW14:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @officialfpl

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Quite a few people have gone agonizingly close to winning Fantasy5’s £10k weekly prize. Some of the predicted targets this week are even more lenient, so I think this might finally be the week where we have our first £10k winner of the season! Play: 👇

fantasy5.com/football

If you like the numbers and statistics that I post, you can get access to these and the data that I use by signing up through the link below: 👇

fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/bigmanbakar/73

Q: What to do with Phil Foden? Who are the best replacements?

I would wait till Pep Guardiola’s press conference before deciding what to do with Phil Foden (£8.2m).
I like what I have seen from Man City so far and fully expect them to go on a run soon. Foden has been...

... first choice this season so ideally you’d want to keep him. If you have no other routes to Diogo Jota (£7.7m) though, I feel as if you have to prioritize the Liverpool man:

Diogo Jota big chance involvements in his starts this season:

GW1 (nor): 2
GW2 (BUR): 1
GW4 (lee): 2
GW5 (CPL): 1
GW6 (bre): 2
GW7 (MCI): 0
GW9 (mun): 2
GW11 (whm): 0
GW12 (ARS): 2
GW13 (SOT): 3

Jota has been a stat monster whenever he has started this season. In fact, he has a better minutes per xGi ratio than even Salah this season! He’s a steal at £7.6 million playing for statistically the best attack in the league this season when it comes...

... to shots in the box, big chances and xG. Having a piece of that pie for just £7.6m makes me think that getting in Jota is a transfer of the highest priority at the moment. With Champions League qualification already secured and the possibility of Mane and Salah leaving...

... early around late December, he could turn out to be an option for the long term. If you already own Jota and Foden is declared to be unavailable, then Bernardo Silva (£7.3m) is a good option in isolation but I don’t think he’s as explosive as someone...

... like an İlkay Gündoğan (£7.2m). Gündoğan had the second best expected goal involvement (xGi) after Jota this Gameweek and took up some really threatening positions against West Ham. In his previous three starts, he is top among...

... all the Man City players for xG, big chances, shots in the box and expected goal involvement (£7.2m). He’s playing really well at the moment too – he should keep his starting position for most matches. He would be my Foden replacement if Foden was unavailable and I had Jota.

Q: In this section, I cover the Chelsea defence.

I’m a huge advocate of the Chelsea defence double up. In my opinion, Reece James (£6.3m) and Marcos Alonso (£5.6m) are the ones you should ideally own. I know there’s a good chance they will miss the odd game here or there...

... but, in my opinion, their explosive potential is such that they will make it up in the weeks when they play.
Chelsea’s defence was a bit shaky to start with but since Gameweek 7, they have the best expected xG conceded in the league – better than that of even Man City...

... They conceded just the single shot in the box to Man United which came as a result of an individual error and won’t happen too often. I’ve already covered James enough in my previous threads so I’ll take more of an opportunity to write about Alonso. The Spaniard has...

... three goals and two assists in 15 league starts under Tuchel, averaging an attacking return once every three games. Out of defenders who have had at least four starts or more, only Alexander Arnold, Cancelo, James and Chilwell have registered...

... a better expected goal involvement per start this season. What I love about these attacking defenders though is that you always have the security of clean sheets to fall back on should they fail to deliver any attacking returns. More clean sheets should...

... follow and Alonso, given Chilwell’s injury, looks set to be in the points in the weeks to come.

Q: In this section, I cover Josh King and Emmanuel Dennis.

Since Gameweek 9, Josh King (£5.6m) is top among all players in the league for expected goal involvement and xG. Yes, his numbers have been better than those of even Salah’s! King has played every minute that he has...

... been available for under Claudio Ranieri so far and has had at least one big chance in four of the previous five games. He scored from the penalty spot against Leicester so there is a good chance he might keep them for the foreseeable. In fact, he had another big chance...

... to score from open play as well but squandered it.
He’s perhaps more nailed than Emmanuel Dennis (£5.3m) in the long run as the African Cup of Nations could impact on Dennis’ availability. Dennis’ numbers have been impressive as well, but King’s are...

... still better. That coupled with the fact that King is likely to remain a very viable budget option for the entirety of the Christmas period means that he would be my pick as a budget striker at the moment.

Q: In this section, I cover Ivan Toney, Bryan Mbeumo and emphasize on the importance of a playable bench ahead of the fixture congestion.

Ivan Toney (£6.7m) and Bryan Mbeumo’s (£5.6m) underlying numbers were poor against Everton yet again. Toney scored from the penalty spot...

... but he had a negligible xG from open play. I still think they will offer good value though. They play for an attacking team and are cheap enough to be benched when need be. With the fixtures coming thick and fast, squad depth will be very important which is why I like...

... owning these kinds of assets at this time of the year. With quick turnarounds, the significant majority of assets will get rested in the Christmas period. In my opinion, a stronger bench than owning Tino Livramento and two fillers will be required. Keeping Toney is easier...

... but I’d do the same for Mbeumo as well. There are no budget midfielders in and around Mbeumo’s price range who have been standing out in terms of underlying numbers consistently – in my opinion selling Mbeumo is a vanity transfer and I feel as if there will be much...

... higher priority transfers to make in the weeks to come.

Q: Should Michail Antonio be sold?

Antonio

GW1-6 v GW7-13

Stats per 90

Shots in the box: 4.2 v 1.4
Big chances: 1.6 v 0.3
xG: 0.96 v 0.19
xGi: 1.5 v 0.4

It’s almost as if Michail Antonio’s numbers (£8.1m) have fallen off a cliff. He has blanked in four consecutive Gameweeks so it’s tempting to sell him. However, I wouldn’t. Despite his drop in numbers, Antonio still remains top among forwards for xG and big chances this season...

... There are no obvious replacements and there’s also the fact that you would want him ahead of West Ham’s fixture swing in GW16 and would have to use an extra transfer to sell him and then buy him back at possibly a higher price. I’d keep.

Q: Should Raphinha be sold?

Raphinha’s (£6.7m) numbers have dropped this season which coincides with how Leeds have been playing. It is interesting to note that the big chances per game of Leeds have dropped considerably from 2 last season to 1.3 this season...

... They are also shooting much more from distance, averaging 6.62 shots per game from outside the box v 4.45 last season. They need to be a bit more direct like last season. Having said that, Raphinha for me still remains the most reliable midfielder to own in his price range...

... He has overperformed his xG significantly – scoring five times despite a xG of just 2.73 which makes him one of the most over performing midfielders this season. Having said that, he has no assists from an xA of 2.55 so is performing on par when it comes to his expected...

... goal involvement (xGi). I would hold him for the next two weeks (CRY BRE) before possibly moving him onto Jarrod Bowen (£6.4m). He has slipped under the radar this season but he has been scoring points consistently. Since Gameweek 5, Bowen is behind only Salah, Jota...

... and Mané among midfielders when it comes to expected goal involvement (xGi). This gives you an idea of the underlying numbers that Bowen has been producing. West Ham are ranked fifth for xG this season, averaging 1.6 xG per game. He was rested this week but Moyes did...

... confirm it was only a tactical decision to counter Man City. West Ham’s kind fixture swing coincides with Raphinha’s poor fixtures from Gameweek 16 onwards. This might be the move to make soon.

Here is my Fantasy5 team! Robertson was back to his very best creating two big chances this weekend. I think he has a fair chance of beating his predicted target of 8.5. With Maddison back in form, Vardy has a good shout for multiple returns as well.

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