When the last great #uranium bull cycle ignited back in 2003-2004, broad market was starting to recover from the dotcom bubble.
Today we are in quite a different market environment where broad market is relatively a lot more expensive than it was back then.
2/
On $PDN for example, a 10% discount to 50 dEMA was a gift to add to. Many others gave 20-40% discounts to 50dEMA.
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Stocks dont go up or down in a straight line. They step up and down in multiple time frames. Hourly, daily and weekly.
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Market leaders in #uranium are still very strong in longer timeframe charts, even though daily structures are getting broke in multiple equities.
As long as they stay so, this can turn up fast again. If they break, you wish you had more cash.
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If the weakness continues and broad market doesnt resolve how to value current situation, I think odds are high to see a flush in #uranium, #gold, #silver, #pot and many other sectors aswell. These four I'm watching the most.
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I'm expecting deeper retraces on this bull run than the last in #uranium equities.
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At which price levels I will be a net buyer in #uranium equities and add to my long term positions?
Multiple examples of market leaders suggest that I'd want them 25-30% cheaper, ie. H1 2021 price levels.
8/
I will be a buyer before this of course, but I will treat my positions more as a trade positions than long term positions.
My pf has outperformed $urnm on most days last few weeks, due to good size temporary position in $u.un and highish cash position. Also some nice catches on $tsla short and #vix derivative trades helped a lot.
Nevertheless, my pf is down also.
7.2/
This doesnt have to happen for me to go back 100%+ invested. I'll just treat those buys as trades.
3.2/
On monthly and quarterly we start to see the real long term trend that is prevailing.
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It's funny when I have called some cos to reflect a ~65 pricing for example in the recent top, the counter argument has been many times that they are trading at a huge discount to the project NAV or NPV. How many of these ppl have actually done dcf analysis by themselves?
Depending on when these studies have been released and what parameters they have used, I think Kevin knows his stuff. Typically 1.5x to 2.5x is a reasonable factor to capex.
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Opex is affected by currency exchange rates, energy prices, labour availability and price among other things. Are these at par on how you see world going from here? Typically use growth rate for costs.
My plan calls for some intra-sector rotation once the cycle starts to heat up.
There are some plays that will outrun others, for various reasons, some being the narrative, history & expectation probability.
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There are many equities that fit at least two of these categories, but at least $PDN is one that fits all of these three.
What do you think could be one?
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I've already started the rotation from this cooling period, where many have corrected 30-50% from the recent peak. I'm not selling any here, but rather use some margin and/or rotation from other assets to buy.
I will finance this when I see over extension the next time.
At the end, the only commodity we REALLY need is food. What value does gold have, if both ends of the value chain are hungry? One needs to remember that there is someone out there, who will choose a piece of bread over a piece of gold.
Supply chain of food relies heavily on energy. Rising energy price puts high pressure on primary producers of which many are already producing on thin margins. The rising price of food does not increase their profits, at least not at once, because many have long term contracts...
...that define the price levels. There are also many middleman between the producer and end user, who willingly take their part.
We just had extended highs as the SPUT caused the spot rise through the feedback loop. As the SPUT lost the premium, due whatever reason, the rally stalled and started losing steam causing a reverse in equities.
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After the highs, think who distributes and who accumulates, and on which side of the market, physical or equities?