Thread by @BirinderNarang

1/ #COVID19BC - @CDCofBC Data Update

This data is up until Nov 23rd (posted yesterday).

Important to go through to give a reference point of where we are at & where we can look at the potential #Omicron impact over next few weeks.

Cases/Hospitalizations dropping.

#BCPoli

2/ #COVID19BC - Vaccines + Kids

Will come back to this.

Slight uptick in cases from 9-11 yo recently.

Only ~35% of kids from age 5-11 yo are registered for #COVIDVaccine right now.

Recent data in 12-18 yo from @CDCgov showed Pfizer 93% effective.

Expect similar in 5-11 yo.

3/ #COVID19BC - Hospital Admissions

New hospitalizations declining.

Deaths continue to be in >age 60.

@WHO has said that if over 60 yo they are recommending against international travel

W/ risk of reinfection + #Omicron unknown, this is reasonable.

who.int/news-room/arti…

4/ #COVID19BC - Outcomes Over Last Month

Over the past month, unvaccinated individuals accounted for:
- 19% of the population but,
- 57% of cases
- 69% of hospitalizations
- 81% of critical care admissions

Again, power of vaccination is strong in preventing severe disease.

5/ #COVID19BC - Vaccine Outcomes

Over the last 4 weeks, compared w/ fully vax individuals & after adjusting for age, unvax individuals:

•≈ 8x more likely to become a case
•≈ 34x more likely to be hospitalized
•≈ 61x more likely to be admitted to critical care (NEW)

6/ #COVID19BC - Percent Positivity

Slowly declining provincially
- Lowest in @VCHhealthcare 3%
- @Fraserhealth low as well - 4.1%
- Highest in NH 18% (down from 21.5)

Also note differences by vaccination status (slide 44). Testing rates are declining across the province.

7/ #COVID19BC - Delta

Delta sublineages AY.25 & AY.27 most prevalent Variants in BC across all ages throughout province.

AY.4.2 & AY.4.2.1 are Delta sub-lineages that are slowly increasing in prevalence in the UK since mid-October, 2021.

12 cases of AY.4.2/AY.4.2.1 in BC.

8/ #COVID19BC - Dynamic Modeling

Rt is <1 in most regions (Reproductive number)

Highest on Vancouver Island at 1.3 (small numbers though)

Lowest in Northern Health - hopefully this continues, as we see cases dropping there.

Hopefully, Omicron doesn't disrupt this trend.

9/ #COVID19BC - Adolescents & Vaccines

Highlighting from the Pediatric section.

Lower case rate in 0-11 vs 12-17.

Yet to see a single hospitalization among fully vaccinated 12-17 year olds.

We will keep an eye on this as the numbers start coming in for age 5-11 population.

10/ #COVID19BC - Percent Positivity - Kids

Testing rates among 5-17 yo continue to decrease but remain elevated and stable among 0-4 yo.

Test positivity highest among 9-11 yo (>10%) and lowest in the 0-4 yo (<3%).

W/ positivity >10% in 9-11, good reason to get your kids vax.