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Alexander Stahel Profile picture
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5 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Ran Balicer, head of Israel’s national Covid committee, says he had “no clue” where early estimates of Covid vaccine efficacy, published in Israeli media, had come from. “I would suggest everyone just holds tight and wait,” he says.

#omicron on.ft.com/3EsqQJ0
25% likely to be reinfected Image
Waves much steeper / quicker as Delta Image
Pfizer works Image
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Alexander Stahel Profile picture
5 Dec
EU Covid data make a strong case for vaccines (among others), i.e Moderna, BionTech / Pfizer, AstraZeneca and J&J.

Short thread.
EU is 69% vaccinated, starting mid January 2021.
648m doses were adminstrated, 308m vaccinations completed on a total population of 447m.
It had 3 waves, with 9.4% death in first, 1.83% in 2nd & 0.84% death in percentage of Covid-19 cases in the current wave.

2/...
Take Germany with a population of 83m, Europe's largest. It currently goes through a record Delta case wave (Omicron only just arrived), but so far it only had 0.48% death on 2.4m cases in 3rd wave. How was this for the first two waves?

3/...Source: Bloomberg
Read 9 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
3 Dec
Let us look at US crude & product inventories. It remains the largest refining system globally & by far & away the most transparent market which is why US inventory data matter for crude oil prices globally (although less so now than in times pre-global satellite data).

#OOTT
All-in, US crude & product inventories incl. SPR are 35Mb below their 10-year average at 1,825mb (blue line). They are 100Mb, give or take, away from hitting a decade low. With 50Mb SPR release, we may get their in Q1 2022 and subject to Omicron effects.

2/.. Image
The same data in a 5-year average scenario? We're already 125mb below its 5-average. Kind of interesting. Mind you - commodities price at the margin. So this is an interesting combo with WTI at $68/bbl (ex Macro Set-up).

3/.. Image
Read 17 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
24 Nov
What is the Status Quo of the EU gas crisis?

A short thread in charts on why we are here & where the EU gas crisis is aheading next.

Summary: EU gas security is a prayer, not a policy!

1/...
As of today, EU gas storage tanks are 72% filled. This is WELL below its 5-year averages.

2/...
Expressed in Terra Watt Hours (TWh), the EU has 809 TWh of storage as at 21 November 2021.

For perspective: In the winter 2017/18, the EU consumed 770 TWh from 1 Nov 2017 - 31 March 2018.
Gas storage couldn't go that low bc pipeline systems needs to stay under pressure.

3/...
Read 22 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
5 Nov
High European gas prices has many reasons but one factor seems to be Gazprom's low storage fill in Europe. Is that really true? Let us look at the facts of @Gazprom's storage situation in Europe. 1/...

#EU #NaturalGas
Friendly reminder: The EU imports 33% of its natural gas consumption from Russia, i.e. Gazprom! So if gas is short in Europe, Gazprom does matter. 2/...
So can we measure the storage percentage fill of Gazprom? Yes, once we identified its locations. Specifically, they are Rehden, Etzel, Jemgum, Katharina in Germany, Haidach in Austria, Bergermeer in NL, Damborice in Czech & Banatski Dvor in Serbia. 3/..

Source: Gazprom
Read 12 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
4 Nov
Let's look at the EU gas situation (ex Serbia, Ukraine, Norway, CH). Overall, the seasonal %-fill for EU members (below) is lowest in a decade (yellow line). That will not change as we show below. Train left the station.

#NaturalGas #Europe
Meanwhile, the withdrawals of natural gas are coming in seasonally the earliest in a decade! Again, yellow line. If that trajetory (in GWh/d) remains, EU gas prices will hit record soon again. IMHO, a likely. We will see.
So is the gas coming overproportionally in? Answer: no, overall injection rate (in GWh/d) is in fact seasonally low. Only 2011 & 2012 were lower. However, ...
Read 11 tweets
Alexander Stahel Profile picture
18 Oct
Here a little meta recap on why #copper is in a super-cycle & why I am bullish short-, mid- & long-term Dr Copper!

Let me start with a shocker: in the very short term we may well run out of Cu inventory. How about that? A week ago I tweeted the below...

A week later and we are at 167,250 tonnes of LME inventory on warrants cancelled for London. Again, cancelled = taken out of inventory. Note however that LME only has 242,610 tonnes of inventory. If this continues, London may run out of inventory this year! That is super bullish.
I explained that here for all metal exchange inventories combined (London; New York; Shanghai).

Read 24 tweets

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