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Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
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8 Dec, 6 tweets, 4 min read
[Thread] An update of the #Omicron -driven #4thWave of #COVID19 in GAUTENG 🇿🇦

First, a summary of current indicators:


1/n
Switching to log scale here to understand the exponential growth of #COVID19 cases in Gauteng 🇿🇦



2/6
Early indications that #COVID19 cases in Gauteng may have passed an inflection point.

What is an inflection point:


3/6
Confirmed #COVID19 cases in Gauteng still increasing, but the rate of increase has slowed, i.e. inflection point

See doubling time of cases during #4thWave here:


4/6
But is the slow-down in confirmed #COVID19 cases in Gauteng real or an artefact of testing constraints?

Latest weekly test positivity here:


5/6
Final tweet for today: an update of new hospital admissions per week in Gauteng shown here:


6/6

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More from @rid1tweets

Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
7 Oct
“Knowledge is power, but it is much more powerful when it is shared.”

As part of @Wikimedia's @Wikipedia #WikipediaByUs campaign we celebrate access to knowledge.

Why is knowledge sharing important especially in a time of a pandemic? How can we counter misinformation? Thread 🧵
Early on in the #COVID19 pandemic there was much fear, uncertainty, and misinformation. There still is!

As we gather more data, new research, more knowledge, our understanding improves and we can counter those uncertainties.

But that knowledge needs to be accessible too...
Numbers and statistics can be overwhelming, and so needs to also be shared in a way that's simple, clear and understandable

Just like a picture can tell a thousand words, graphs can put numbers and quantities into perspective, show trends, and tell a better story

#WikipediaByUs
Read 10 tweets
Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
8 Jul
[Thread] Fellow Gautengers,

The #3rdWave of #COVID19 in #Gauteng has been devastating😩

There are signs of hope, light at the end of the dark tunnel💡
Cases surpassed an inflection point and heading towards/possibly at a peak🗻

But we must remain vigilant🧐

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
Over past 7 days, > 78k #COVID19 cases reported in Gauteng, an avg of 11,266 per day, and up 6% week-on-week 📈

Case incidence rate at 73 new cases per 100k per day - highest infection rate seen by any province at any stage since the start of the pandemic ⚠️

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
We need to wait for and see a sustained decrease in cases for 7 days to confirm a peak has been reached, i.e. 7-day rolling average showing <= 0% change week-on-week 📉

But rate of increase of cases has certainly slowed passing an inflection point... 🤞

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
Read 15 tweets
Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
5 Jul
It's turning!! 🤞🤞

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid #Gauteng #3rdWave #COVID19SA
This graph shows a 7-day rolling average, so what we are seeing is not the "weekend effect" as the 7-day average takes that into account. This dip gives some hope!
However, it's too early to say if Gauteng has actually peaked - need to wait a few more days to confirm that..
Of course, we're not out of the woods either; the curve can turn upwards again at any time if there are any further spikes due to cluster outbreaks and possible superspreader events...
Also, the infection rate is still very high and risk remains high so need to remain vigilant...
Read 7 tweets
Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
19 Jun
[Thread] Hospitals in Gauteng are full! ⚠️

Doctors, nurses, and HCWs didn't ask for this and don't need our thanks; they need our action and assistance! 🙏

If the data isn't enough, here are some comments that I've read recently from doctors on the ground 👇

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
Read 6 tweets
Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
16 Jun
[Thread] Dear fellow Gautengers

A plea to take extra precaution🙏

The 3rd wave of hospitalisations is here! #COVID19 numbers are about to exceed previous peaks. We're entering uncharted territory. How high we go is still up to us,and our collective behaviour!
#Rid1TweetsonCovid
Gauteng is currently the epicentre of South Africa's 3rd wave, and the most populous province in SA 🇿🇦

There have been over 35000 new cases reported in Gauteng over the past 7 days, i.e. an average of over 5000 per day, up 88% compared to the previous week 📈

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
Being Covid positive is not your fault, don't blame yourself! And not a death sentence; most people will fortunately recover 🙏

But be responsible and notify possible contacts and exposures. Numbers too high for tracking and tracing now, so it's up to us!

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid
Read 16 tweets
Ridhwaan Suliman Profile picture
15 Jun
15 June 2021: #COVID19 in South Africa🇿🇦

8,436 new cases reported in South Africa today (expect much more tomorrow), and over 57k cases over past 7 days 📈

3rd wave in SA now surging, spurred on by a concerning spike in Gauteng ⚠️

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid #FamilyMeeting #ThirdWave
Update: #COVID19 in Gauteng

GP currently epicentre of SA's 3rd wave. Over 35k cases reported in GP over past 7 days, 63% of total, and up 88% week-on-week 🚩

Over 4,400 patients currently in hospitals in GP alone, and too many deaths now 😢

#Rid1TweetsOnCovid #FamilyMeeting
208 more deaths reported in South Africa today ⚠️

Reported deaths are always high on Tuesdays (post-weekend), but this is significantly higher and this is highest reported in months. Trend is clearly going up again 👇
Read 5 tweets

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