(1/13)
Grey Swans are those low-probability, high-impact events that few expect.
Last year, we had picked 10 Grey Swans for 2021. Amazingly, some materialised. Notably, the Democrats won the Senate, and inflation surged.
Here are our 12 for this year 👇
Grey Swans are those low-probability, high-impact events that few expect.
Last year, we had picked 10 Grey Swans for 2021. Amazingly, some materialised. Notably, the Democrats won the Senate, and inflation surged.
Here are our 12 for this year 👇
(2/13)
Pundits are Wrong! US Enters a #Recession in 2022
Almost no one is looking for a US recession in 2022. Economists’ consensus assigns only a 15% probability. Clearly, most expect US growth to lose momentum. So why not expect a US recession?
Pundits are Wrong! US Enters a #Recession in 2022
Almost no one is looking for a US recession in 2022. Economists’ consensus assigns only a 15% probability. Clearly, most expect US growth to lose momentum. So why not expect a US recession?
(3/13)
With a Magic Wand: COVID All But Disappears
Virus mutation, natural immunity and vaccines are all reasons why the pandemic could end next year according. #COVID could also just disappear like other viruses have! (Think SARS)
With a Magic Wand: COVID All But Disappears
Virus mutation, natural immunity and vaccines are all reasons why the pandemic could end next year according. #COVID could also just disappear like other viruses have! (Think SARS)
(4/13)
Crypto Kills Facebook
Crypto, web 3.0, #metaverse.. The buzzwords are flying around, and Facebook has tried to embrace them. But crypto-based platforms that allow creators to retain ownership of their output could leave centralised platforms like Facebook in the dust.
Crypto Kills Facebook
Crypto, web 3.0, #metaverse.. The buzzwords are flying around, and Facebook has tried to embrace them. But crypto-based platforms that allow creators to retain ownership of their output could leave centralised platforms like Facebook in the dust.
(5/13)
Elon Musk Sells All #Tesla Stock to Save the World!
Our fourth Grey Swan follows a scenario where Elon Musk sells all his Tesla shares to solve world hunger. Thorsten Wegener writes a compelling analysis of how this could happen.
Elon Musk Sells All #Tesla Stock to Save the World!
Our fourth Grey Swan follows a scenario where Elon Musk sells all his Tesla shares to solve world hunger. Thorsten Wegener writes a compelling analysis of how this could happen.
(6/13)
La Nina Strikes Hard – Noah’s Ark Time?
For our fifth Grey Swan, John Tierney tackles #climatechange. He gives his view on how investors should position in a scenario where La Niña moves from mild to extreme.
La Nina Strikes Hard – Noah’s Ark Time?
For our fifth Grey Swan, John Tierney tackles #climatechange. He gives his view on how investors should position in a scenario where La Niña moves from mild to extreme.
(7/13)
The Brazilian Real Collapses – USD/BRL to 10
@jturek18 cites three reasons – Fed hikes, rising fiscal risk premia ahead of the elections and a less hawkish BCB – as reasons why BRL could collapse next year.
The Brazilian Real Collapses – USD/BRL to 10
@jturek18 cites three reasons – Fed hikes, rising fiscal risk premia ahead of the elections and a less hawkish BCB – as reasons why BRL could collapse next year.
(8/13)
Supply Shortage Flips To Supply Abundance
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut turns to the issue of supply disruptions for our seventh Grey Swan. Slowing goods consumption and excess supply could mean an inventory glut and lower prices are in store for 2022.
Supply Shortage Flips To Supply Abundance
Dominique Dwor-Frecaut turns to the issue of supply disruptions for our seventh Grey Swan. Slowing goods consumption and excess supply could mean an inventory glut and lower prices are in store for 2022.
(9/13)
Immigration and Fiscal Tensions Lead to Euro Break-Up
@bilalhafeez123 discusses how the combination of COVID, economic divergence, shifting alliances and French elections all raise the risk of a Euro break up over the next year.
Immigration and Fiscal Tensions Lead to Euro Break-Up
@bilalhafeez123 discusses how the combination of COVID, economic divergence, shifting alliances and French elections all raise the risk of a Euro break up over the next year.
(10/13)
Democrats Flip History and Win the Mid Terms!
An unpopular #GOP, a new national emergency and more voter friendly policies from the Democrats are all reasons why Congress could remain blue after the midterms according to John Tierney.
Democrats Flip History and Win the Mid Terms!
An unpopular #GOP, a new national emergency and more voter friendly policies from the Democrats are all reasons why Congress could remain blue after the midterms according to John Tierney.
(11/13)
BOJ becomes the People’s ATM
In a radical attempt to reflate the #Japanese economy and move away from yet more fiscal stimulus, Dominique envisages a scenario where the people’s QE is implemented.
BOJ becomes the People’s ATM
In a radical attempt to reflate the #Japanese economy and move away from yet more fiscal stimulus, Dominique envisages a scenario where the people’s QE is implemented.
(12/13)
Real Rates Armageddon: Pensions Are Destroyed
Karl Massey considers the possibility of default for our eleventh Grey Swan. Higher inflation than in the past and lower growth leaves those with significant unhedged real return exposures as the biggest losers.
Real Rates Armageddon: Pensions Are Destroyed
Karl Massey considers the possibility of default for our eleventh Grey Swan. Higher inflation than in the past and lower growth leaves those with significant unhedged real return exposures as the biggest losers.
(13/13)
Manchester United Wins Champions League
For our final Grey Swan we turn to football. Henrik Gullberg considers team quality, experience and age to determine whether Man United could turn into Champions League challengers. Maybe a few tweaks is all that’s needed!
Manchester United Wins Champions League
For our final Grey Swan we turn to football. Henrik Gullberg considers team quality, experience and age to determine whether Man United could turn into Champions League challengers. Maybe a few tweaks is all that’s needed!
Let us know which one you liked the best and if you have any Grey Swans you are keeping an eye out for!
If you're keen to read all of our Grey Swans in full, visit our website at macrohive.com.
If you're keen to read all of our Grey Swans in full, visit our website at macrohive.com.
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