Thread by @ABarbashin

Very interesting read by one of Russia's leading China experts (probably the main one on Chinese military) Vasily Kashin on #Lithuania - #China feud and its growing importance for international relations. Moscow is watching this space very close. Thread 1/7

Kashin asserts that Lithuania was purposefully aggravating its relationship with China in order to get US support.
Long story short: China decided to show its full strength and delisted LT in its customs records, de-facto prohibiting any imports of LT-produced goods 2/7

Beijing has also imposed de-facto corporate ban for companies working with LT: making it hard for international firms working with LT to work with China at the same time (kind of like secondary sanctions);
The goal is to tests China's arsenal of coercions and test EU 3/7

The assumption being that EU will not attempt to defend Lithuania and demand China to stop this coercion; preferring to accommodate China and not risk loosing Chinese market.
Beijing is certain it can make LT apologize and do what is necessary not to upset China any further 4/7

Kashin says China has been investing heavily in Hungary and Greece to de-facto make them into pro-China lobbyists so if LT would attempt to rally support Hungary and Greece would be there to defend "pragmatic approach" 5/7

Moscow is obviously watching what China does with a bit of envy (Russia does not have same $$$ capabilities). And probably with a bit of caution (who says the same could not be done to Russia in the future). 6/7

The battle over Lithuania is a test to what China can accomplish with economic coercion and a test of how much EU is willing to act in unison, as well as how much US is willing to help its key allies in the region. 7/7

And here is the link to the text - profile.ru/abroad/pochemu…