Seeing a lot of speculation about Russia's timing over escalation with Ukraine and NATO. Some have argued this is about Russia's domestic transition while others insist this is EU/US presumably "weak" moment that made Russia move. Few thoughts. THREAD 1/16
I don't buy the argument that Putin is about to leave office...in 2024 and thus he wants to close the page over Ukraine and secure Russia's western border for good, so he could retire and enjoy occasional mojito in his southern palace at Cape Idokopas. 2/16
I have strong doubts he will leave in 2024 and even if he does step down as president to become a "national leader" or some other fancy title to indeed supervise his own transit (like in KZ) this does not explain the seemingly unbearable urgency of the moment. 3/16
This urgency could be explained with a few simultaneous developments on the "frontier": most of EU is preoccupied exclusively with domestic affairs, Merkel is stepping down, US proclaims its focus on China while Zelensky in Ukraine is waging an "elite war" 4/16
Let's not forget about Zelensky's assault on Putin's man in Ukraine, Mr. Medvedchuk. It is very personal.
Omicron is certainly helping with refocusing attention away from Ukraine.
Clearly, no one "cares" as much about Ukraine as Russia. 5/16
If we take two steps back however, the urgency could also be explained with the general outlook of Putin's regime own survival at home: recent elections have shown that even liberals are ready to support communists (and whoever) - people are that tired of United Russia; 6/16
Repressions only slow down inevitable increase of dissatisfaction with official narratives on most things, you no longer control information as you did before; and you would hardly see it easier dealing with the youth- every year you get a few million new voters who oppose 7/16
While monetary reserves are high, every single recipe for economic growth demands changes that endanger your grip on power;
By the time your next elections come, even if they are fake, you want to have smth that will justify your victory 8/16
What could be better than another Crimea without Crimea - a major FP historic victory that "changes everything"? Moreover, Kremlin has been saying it for years - the world is changing, the unipolar moment is over, new "world order" is coming 9/16
By acting now in Ukraine Putin is moving "ahead of time", before someone else sets new rules that would endanger Putin's vision of what Russia is and what place in the world it should have.
We should not discard Putin's evident fixation on history and his role in it 10/16
Could a limited military operation set new realities on the ground in Ukraine and make every Western capital ask Putin to stop before taking Kyiv, giving him "Minsk III" and yet another recognition of him as "undisputed ruler of Northern Eurasia"? Theoretically, yes. 11/16
Could the fear of Putin's invasion make the West decide to give him something that he could pass as a victory and then play it for ages at home as a sign of western recognition of his might? Yes as well. 12/16
Naturally, there are some many "but" here. First and by most - what if the military operation goes wrong? What if sanctions that are introduced are a game changer? What if Russians do not support their sons being killed for Putin's "moment of glory"? 13/16
Thankfully for Putin - Russia is not a democracy and a very small group of people is calling the shots. They could be wrong in their calculations. They are just old sad men.
Wouldn't be the first time in history. 14/16
What could be done? Putin is expecting Biden to act fast - this is a direct conversation with him. So Biden has to come up with something in terms of negotiations and alternative offers that would convince Putin he means business. 15/16
Whatever would be the result of it, we will not like it. Ukraine will not like it. It is a choice of bad and horrible options. Not choosing is not an option though. 16/16

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More from @ABarbashin

19 Dec
Very interesting read by one of Russia's leading China experts (probably the main one on Chinese military) Vasily Kashin on #Lithuania - #China feud and its growing importance for international relations. Moscow is watching this space very close. Thread 1/7
Kashin asserts that Lithuania was purposefully aggravating its relationship with China in order to get US support.
Long story short: China decided to show its full strength and delisted LT in its customs records, de-facto prohibiting any imports of LT-produced goods 2/7
Beijing has also imposed de-facto corporate ban for companies working with LT: making it hard for international firms working with LT to work with China at the same time (kind of like secondary sanctions);
The goal is to tests China's arsenal of coercions and test EU 3/7
Read 8 tweets
15 Dec
Vladislav Inozemtsev here argues you can't defeat Putin, you can only outlive him. Why?
Thread 1/14
ridl.io/en/outliving-p…
Putin’s system is in some ways not a state in the traditional sense of the word. It lacks clear ideology; it has rather blurred and undefined boundaries; and, most importantly, it does not distinguish between the private and public spheres, treating both quite arbitrarily 2/14
It is hostile to legal culture as such, constantly changing the rules and passing vague laws that could victimise any of its subjects at any given time. The nature of this bizarre regime is set by the main goal of its beneficiaries: personal enrichment. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
14 Dec
Fresh @levada_ru about the ongoing escalation over Ukraine.
Only 4%(!) believe Russia is responsible
50% think it is NATO
16% - Ukraine
3% - DNR/LNR
Thread
75%(!!!) do not exclude it could lead to Russia - Ukraine war
Of them, 3% think it is inevitable, 36% - highly likely, 38% - least likely;
only 15% think it is impossible
What does it say?
1. Propaganda continues to work quite well when it come to foreign policy, Kremlin fully controls the narrative.
2. The language of "defense" appeal impeccably. See Olesya Zakharova on how it is constructed - ridl.io/en/the-languag…;
Read 5 tweets
13 Dec
Is it possible to make any sound conclusions about the state of US - Russia dialogue over Ukraine and NATO already today? Obviously there way too many variables but I've tried to outline there major developments. Thread 1/6
ridl.io/en/the-drumrol…
Isolation of Russia is over. We will have a lot more meetings, summits and various negotiation formats. And this is good. The half-isolations of the last 7 years proved to be pointless. For as long as Putin is ready to talk, it is cheaper to listen.
2/6
Russia-NATO status-quo is over. Something will have to change. Too soon to tell which way it would go - obviously Article 10 would not be altered but there are ambitious yet hard options that could be investigated. It is crucial to be open and keep in mind that Russia
3/6
Read 6 tweets
12 Dec
Was just reminded of this Kasparov quote:
"Russia's war with Ukraine is the final stage of historic confrontation of Kievan Rus and Byzantium/Golden Horde". He is juxtaposing "good" European civilization with a "bad" Asian one. A small thread.
1/5
I find it quite hilarious that Byzantine Empire's tradition is being framed as an Asian one.
Poor Eastern Roman Empire. Oh well.
But main problem with that comparison is that it is often used as a racist one - Ukrainians as white Europeans vs. Russians the Tatars/Ugrians
2/5
A final frontier of Europe vs. Barbarians of the East.
I get why it is attractive for some in Ukraine, especially on the right but it is embarrassing really.
Russia is Europe. And it is acting as a European power...of the 19th century.
3/5
Read 5 tweets
10 Dec
What has changed in #Russia’s electoral and party systems over the year?
Stanislav Andreychuk for @RiddleRussia. Few key thoughts. THREAD 1/7
ridl.io/en/year-2021-i…
Total of 4,876 election campaigns were held in Russia. The most important one was Duma election. What's new here? "New People" - not only getting 5.6% but also getting into 20 regional parliaments.
A year before the elections it had only 1% of public recognition.
2/7
New People had receive a lot of state support: large TV air time, did not face any obstructions. Most of the people in the party are unknowns.
At the same time - Yabloko became a regional party, loosing federal support and getting less than 3%. 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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