Thread by @ABarbashin

Seeing a lot of speculation about Russia's timing over escalation with Ukraine and NATO. Some have argued this is about Russia's domestic transition while others insist this is EU/US presumably "weak" moment that made Russia move. Few thoughts. THREAD 1/16

I don't buy the argument that Putin is about to leave office...in 2024 and thus he wants to close the page over Ukraine and secure Russia's western border for good, so he could retire and enjoy occasional mojito in his southern palace at Cape Idokopas. 2/16

I have strong doubts he will leave in 2024 and even if he does step down as president to become a "national leader" or some other fancy title to indeed supervise his own transit (like in KZ) this does not explain the seemingly unbearable urgency of the moment. 3/16

This urgency could be explained with a few simultaneous developments on the "frontier": most of EU is preoccupied exclusively with domestic affairs, Merkel is stepping down, US proclaims its focus on China while Zelensky in Ukraine is waging an "elite war" 4/16

Let's not forget about Zelensky's assault on Putin's man in Ukraine, Mr. Medvedchuk. It is very personal.
Omicron is certainly helping with refocusing attention away from Ukraine.
Clearly, no one "cares" as much about Ukraine as Russia. 5/16

If we take two steps back however, the urgency could also be explained with the general outlook of Putin's regime own survival at home: recent elections have shown that even liberals are ready to support communists (and whoever) - people are that tired of United Russia; 6/16

Repressions only slow down inevitable increase of dissatisfaction with official narratives on most things, you no longer control information as you did before; and you would hardly see it easier dealing with the youth- every year you get a few million new voters who oppose 7/16

While monetary reserves are high, every single recipe for economic growth demands changes that endanger your grip on power;
By the time your next elections come, even if they are fake, you want to have smth that will justify your victory 8/16

What could be better than another Crimea without Crimea - a major FP historic victory that "changes everything"? Moreover, Kremlin has been saying it for years - the world is changing, the unipolar moment is over, new "world order" is coming 9/16

By acting now in Ukraine Putin is moving "ahead of time", before someone else sets new rules that would endanger Putin's vision of what Russia is and what place in the world it should have.
We should not discard Putin's evident fixation on history and his role in it 10/16

Could a limited military operation set new realities on the ground in Ukraine and make every Western capital ask Putin to stop before taking Kyiv, giving him "Minsk III" and yet another recognition of him as "undisputed ruler of Northern Eurasia"? Theoretically, yes. 11/16

Could the fear of Putin's invasion make the West decide to give him something that he could pass as a victory and then play it for ages at home as a sign of western recognition of his might? Yes as well. 12/16

Naturally, there are some many "but" here. First and by most - what if the military operation goes wrong? What if sanctions that are introduced are a game changer? What if Russians do not support their sons being killed for Putin's "moment of glory"? 13/16

Thankfully for Putin - Russia is not a democracy and a very small group of people is calling the shots. They could be wrong in their calculations. They are just old sad men.
Wouldn't be the first time in history. 14/16

What could be done? Putin is expecting Biden to act fast - this is a direct conversation with him. So Biden has to come up with something in terms of negotiations and alternative offers that would convince Putin he means business. 15/16

Whatever would be the result of it, we will not like it. Ukraine will not like it. It is a choice of bad and horrible options. Not choosing is not an option though. 16/16