As we await the B.C. government's announcement today on expected new #COVID19 restrictions, and consider personal risk assessment in the days ahead, let's do a little thought experiment about cases, hospitalizations, and forecasts.
I'll try and keep it brief!
I'll try and keep it brief!
I find comparisons for B.C. to Norway and Denmark fairly useful.
Why?
They've have had relative success in keeping deaths low, they've avoided massive waves, they have similar vaccine uptake and population size to us.
And they're a week or two ahead on the Omicron curve.
Why?
They've have had relative success in keeping deaths low, they've avoided massive waves, they have similar vaccine uptake and population size to us.
And they're a week or two ahead on the Omicron curve.
Denmark has more than 10,000 cases a day now.
Norway, more than 5,000.
This doesn't automatically mean British Columbia is going to reach those heights.
But it's a useful proxy for what people should wrap their heads around as a possibility.
Norway, more than 5,000.
This doesn't automatically mean British Columbia is going to reach those heights.
But it's a useful proxy for what people should wrap their heads around as a possibility.
"But Omicron is less dangerous!" I hear some of you say.
We're still not entirely sure on that yet, but let's be optimistic!
And let's be optimistic and say it's 50% less dangerous, in terms of your chances of going to hospital.
We're all optimists on twitter dot com.
We're still not entirely sure on that yet, but let's be optimistic!
And let's be optimistic and say it's 50% less dangerous, in terms of your chances of going to hospital.
We're all optimists on twitter dot com.
Let's say we have a sustained run of 5,000 cases a day, like Norway seems to be having.
(which is more vaccinated than us, similar population size, and has small but consistently better results at preventing transmission for the past 18 months)
Where does that leave us?
(which is more vaccinated than us, similar population size, and has small but consistently better results at preventing transmission for the past 18 months)
Where does that leave us?
Very crudely, 5,000 cases a day at 50% less danger of hospitalization compared to past waves leaves B.C. with about 1500 hospitalizations.
About triple our past heights.
It would need to be about 85% less dangerous for us to remain below previous hospitalization heights.
About triple our past heights.
It would need to be about 85% less dangerous for us to remain below previous hospitalization heights.
And maybe the risk of hospitalization under Omicron will be 85% smaller!
And maybe Norway and Denmark are actually poor comparisons!
And maybe we're all really done with this pandemic and hate the thought of changing Christmas plans!
But this is what we're looking at.
And maybe Norway and Denmark are actually poor comparisons!
And maybe we're all really done with this pandemic and hate the thought of changing Christmas plans!
But this is what we're looking at.
in conclusion: live your life with the energy of someone deeply invested in what movies i saw in empty theatres five months ago
https://twitter.com/BcConcerned/status/1473360096465801218
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