🚨 B.C.’S NEW OMICRON PLAN IS OUT 🚨

- All indoor organized gatherings (including weddings) banned
- Bars, nightclubs, gyms, fitness centres closed
- Rapid tests expanded in the coming weeks
- Surgeries postponed starting Jan. 4

There is a lot, and I’ll try and break it down
Here is what we know about the new public health orders on gatherings.

Restaurants still open, but six people maximum to a table.

These rules are in addition to the ones announced on Friday.
On rapid tests, the province is expecting to get 700,000 new tests in the next ten days, and hoping for 11 million from the feds in January

Here's the outline of where they will be going

Note: current plan is schools keep going in January
On third doses, the province plans to increase the pace in January, to anywhere between 190,000 overall shots a week to 325,000 shots a week.

Convention Centre being reopened.

For comparison, from early June to late July we were doing 420,000 total shots a week.
The province effectively believes the mental health toll of a travel ban or advisory over Christmas is greater than the increased transmission that will occur as a result.

At the same time, they emphasized the need for people to take personal actions to reduce risk.

So.
What changed between late last week when B.C. put in some restrictions and “followed the science”, and today when more were put in?

Government says increased hospitalizations in the U.K and Quebec were a factor, more data out of Denmark, reality of increasing case counts here.
I know there’s a lot of questions and a lot of feelings at the moment, but this is the information I have.

I’d encourage folks to watch the press conference and look to other accounts for any new details if they can’t watch.

Back around 3 with numbers and charts.

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More from @j_mcelroy

23 Dec
A quick note on #COVID19 numbers in British Columbia: I've been told they won't be coming out on the 25th, 26th, 27th, or 28th due to the holidays and associated staffing issues.

Which means when we get numbers on the 29th, it will be five days worth.
When you factor in the rapid growth of Omicron, the delays in testing in Vancouver, and many people on Vancouver Island are being asked to wait 2-4 days to get a test, the numbers on the 29th could be unfathomably high.

However...
What we saw last Christmas was a decrease in testing the days directly around Christmas because people didn't want to get tested so they wouldn't have to cancel plans — but then testing and cases shot up quickly right afterwards.

Which *could* happen again!
Read 8 tweets
22 Dec
RECORD HIGH 1,474 cases of #COVID19 in B.C. today, a 152% increase from last Wednesday, as Omicron continues to do Omicron things.

Active cases up to 7,253, hospitalizations down to 187, and six new deaths.

Today's chart. Image
Just 19,949 third doses given in B.C. yesterday (down from last Monday), compared to 208,649 in Ontario, 79,648 in Quebec and 38,295 in Alberta.

The different strategies playing out in clear ways this week. ImageImage
72% of all cases in the last week in B.C. have been in people with at least two doses.

But when adjusted for population, that still means unvaccinated people have been getting infected at more than double the rate.

And the ratio for hospitalizations is still holding steady. Image
Read 7 tweets
22 Dec
ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD of 1,308 #COVID19 cases announced for B.C. today, as the rolling average surges 114% in a single week.

Active cases up by about 1,000 to 6,348, hospitalizations up 7 to 192, and one new death.

Today's chart.
up up and away
525 new cases in Vancouver Coastal Health alone today, as the numbers keep going up and up in the Lower Mainland...but Vancouver Island starting to show some real exponential signs as well
Read 8 tweets
21 Dec
As we await the B.C. government's announcement today on expected new #COVID19 restrictions, and consider personal risk assessment in the days ahead, let's do a little thought experiment about cases, hospitalizations, and forecasts.

I'll try and keep it brief!
I find comparisons for B.C. to Norway and Denmark fairly useful.

Why?

They've have had relative success in keeping deaths low, they've avoided massive waves, they have similar vaccine uptake and population size to us.

And they're a week or two ahead on the Omicron curve.
Denmark has more than 10,000 cases a day now.

Norway, more than 5,000.

This doesn't automatically mean British Columbia is going to reach those heights.

But it's a useful proxy for what people should wrap their heads around as a possibility.
Read 8 tweets
21 Dec
(sigh)

who is ready for even more charts
So, where is this wave picking up fastest right now?

The Lower Mainland, full stop.

Vancouver still exploding, but Fraser Health picking up speed.

Consistent with what we're seeing in other places with Omicron — it's the densest places getting hit fastest (at least for now).
What can we about the vaccine status of people getting Omicron in British Columbia?

Government only provides data on a rolling weekly basis.

But the per capita rate of people with two doses getting infected doubled last week, compared to only going up 20% for the unvaccinated.
Read 8 tweets
27 Nov
who is ready for some charts
It's been three weeks since we did this last, and over that time we've see fairly consistent downward transmission.

The rolling average is now half of what it was at the peak of the 4th wave, active cases down by half as well, hospitalizations down 35%.
For a while, the very depressing and frustrating caveat was that deaths were not following suit, but they are now down to about 4 a day after several weeks of 6-8.

(Put a grimmer way, we're now only seeing three times the per capita deaths of Ontario, instead of 6-7)
Read 7 tweets

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