ALL-TIME DAILY RECORD of 1,308 #COVID19 cases announced for B.C. today, as the rolling average surges 114% in a single week.
Active cases up by about 1,000 to 6,348, hospitalizations up 7 to 192, and one new death.
Today's chart.
up up and away
525 new cases in Vancouver Coastal Health alone today, as the numbers keep going up and up in the Lower Mainland...but Vancouver Island starting to show some real exponential signs as well
An additional 16,789 third doses were given in B.C. yesterday.
According to COVID-19 Tracker Canada, Ontario delivered 187,371 third doses yesterday.
one imagines this will become a conversation in the days ahead
One of the things people are stressing about at the moment is rapid tests.
Not going argue how *much* of a tool it can be, but most people believe it's a valid tool to some extent.
Anyways, here is one of the reasons for that stress in B.C., in chart form.
Another thing people are stressing about at the moment are 3rd doses.
Just a few days ago, B.C. was at the top of the list when it came to % of citizens that had gotten a 3rd dose.
You may have heard the province bring this up once or twice.
But things are shifting.
A couple key questions to consider if we play the provincial comparison game:
- Will the provinces that are surging right now have enough supply/capacity to keep that going?
- Is letting healthy adults get 3rd doses 4-6 months after their 2nd the *smart* thing to do?
We'll see how that plays out in the coming weeks.
Along with the critical hospital data, both here and abroad.
But I think it's pretty academic at this point how the case count in B.C. is going to go the next few days.
Adjust accordingly.
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A quick note on #COVID19 numbers in British Columbia: I've been told they won't be coming out on the 25th, 26th, 27th, or 28th due to the holidays and associated staffing issues.
Which means when we get numbers on the 29th, it will be five days worth.
When you factor in the rapid growth of Omicron, the delays in testing in Vancouver, and many people on Vancouver Island are being asked to wait 2-4 days to get a test, the numbers on the 29th could be unfathomably high.
However...
What we saw last Christmas was a decrease in testing the days directly around Christmas because people didn't want to get tested so they wouldn't have to cancel plans — but then testing and cases shot up quickly right afterwards.
As we await the B.C. government's announcement today on expected new #COVID19 restrictions, and consider personal risk assessment in the days ahead, let's do a little thought experiment about cases, hospitalizations, and forecasts.
I'll try and keep it brief!
I find comparisons for B.C. to Norway and Denmark fairly useful.
Why?
They've have had relative success in keeping deaths low, they've avoided massive waves, they have similar vaccine uptake and population size to us.
And they're a week or two ahead on the Omicron curve.
Denmark has more than 10,000 cases a day now.
Norway, more than 5,000.
This doesn't automatically mean British Columbia is going to reach those heights.
But it's a useful proxy for what people should wrap their heads around as a possibility.
It's been three weeks since we did this last, and over that time we've see fairly consistent downward transmission.
The rolling average is now half of what it was at the peak of the 4th wave, active cases down by half as well, hospitalizations down 35%.
For a while, the very depressing and frustrating caveat was that deaths were not following suit, but they are now down to about 4 a day after several weeks of 6-8.
(Put a grimmer way, we're now only seeing three times the per capita deaths of Ontario, instead of 6-7)