[Thread] 1. Will @HealthZA achieve its latest #VaccineRollOutSA goal by the end of 2021 (today)?

No.

What's the goal?
Vaccinating 70% of people of 50+ with 1 shot of #Pfizer or #JnJ by midnight, 31 Dec 2021.

Where are we at? 64.08% (so 5.92% short of the 70% goal)
2. Is 64.08% of people of 50+ vaccinated the final figure for 2021?

No, we'll get the vax figures for today (31 Dec) tonight.

But it's unlikely to make much of a difference to the overall %, as we're currently doing fewer than 50,000 doses per day.
3. What's the breakdown for the different 50+ age groups (for 1 jab per person)?

60+: 66.08% (we've covered 3.6 mil out of a 60+) population of 5.5 mil)
50-59: 61.78% (we've covered 2.9 mil out of a 50-59 population of 4.8 mil)
4. How many people of 50+ does SA have?
10,322,753 (@HealthZA uses 2020 Stats SA figures)

How many people of 50+ have we vaxxed?
6,614,395

How many more people of 50+ do we need to vax to have 70% covered with 1 jab?
7,225,927 (70%) - 6,614,395 = 611,532 (5.92% short of 70%)
5. Did more women than men get vaxxed?
Yes, in numbers, because SA has more women than men in this age group. But proportion-wise, more men of 50+ than women of 50+ got vaxxed:
1. Women: 63.64% got vaxxed
2. Men: 64.7% got vaxxed
6. Did any of SA's provinces make the 70% goal (people vaxxed with ONE shot)?

Yes. 3 provinces made the goal:
1. Limpopo: 75.72%
2. Free State: 70.36%
3. Eastern Cape: 70.08%

Fun fact: All 3 provinces who made the goal are RURAL provinces.
7. What % of SA adults (people of 18+) have been FULLY vaxxed (so 1 #JnJ jab or 2 #Pfizer jabs):
39.17%

Which province has the highest % of adults FULLY vaxxed?
Free State (47.85%)
8. How are the different age groups doing with FULL vaccinations?
1. 60+ = highest proportion of people fully vaxxed (59.12%)
2. 18-34 years = lowest % of people fully vaxxed (25.07%)
9. What's happening with booster shots? @HealthZA doesn't yet reflect the data on its dashboard (the "booster" doses on slide 6 = incorrectly labeled, those = nrs for extra doses for immunocompromised people; #Sisonke #JnJ boosters = 232,740).
10. Where does all this info from from? @HealthZA's dashboard. Find it here: sacoronavirus.co.za/latest-vaccine…

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More from @miamalan

30 Dec 21
[Thread] JUST IN:

How sick did #COVID19 patients in SA get during Gauteng's #Omicron wave?

NEW @TheLancet preprint: bit.ly/3FJj6mA (via Waasila Jasat, @ProfAbdoolKarim et al.)
2. Why did study authors look @ Gauteng + not the entire SA?
1. SA's #Omicron outbreak started in Gauteng, so there's data 4 a longer period than other provinces
2. They looked @ the 1st 4 weeks of #Omicron + compared it to the same periods for Wave 2 (Beta), Wave 3 (#Delta)
3. From when to when were the 1 month periods of the waves?
- Wave 2 (Beta): 29 Nov-26 Dec 2020
- Wave 3 (#Delta): 2 May-29 May 2021
- Wave 4 (#Omicron): 14 Nov-11 Dec 2021
Read 16 tweets
24 Dec 21
[Thread]. 1. What does @HealthZA's circular about stopping all contact tracing and quarantining for #COVID19 mean and WHY was it issued?

Here we go (with lots of help from @hivepi).
2. What is contract tracing?

It’s when health workers try to trace the people 1 infected person could potentially have infected by asking the infected person who they have been in contact with and getting those people to then test or isolate if they test positive.
3. Why is @HealthZA stopping contract tracing?

In short: It’s too expensive for what we get out of it, so we spend a lot of money 4 very little gain (gain = picking up infected people + stopping them from infecting others). We could use the money better on other stuff/diseases.
Read 20 tweets
24 Dec 21
JUST IN [Thread]:
1. @HealthZA disagrees with the US government's CDC's decision to recommend #mRNA jabs above #JnJ (because of rare side effects) - we'll continue using JnJ
2. The US = abundance of jabs (100 mil + ready for use), so they can afford 2 be choosy.
2. How safe is #JnJ?
1. @MRCza analysed safety data from the #Sisonke study (which uses #JnJ)
2. Serious side effects were rare and occurred in only 129 out of about 500 000 #HealthWorkers in the study
3. What does #Sisonke data tell us about mild #JnJ side effects?
1. The commonest side effects = headache, body aches, pain @ injection site, fever
2. Most side effects = occurred within 48 hours of vaccination
Read 6 tweets
23 Dec 21
BREAKING [Thread] 1. @SAHPRA1 has approved a 2nd dose of #JnJ and heterologous (mix/match) booster for adults:

1. If u had a JnJ jab, u can get a booster @ least 2 mnths after 1 JnJ shot
2. If u had a #Pfizer jab, u can get a JnJ booster @ least 6 mnths after a 2nd Pfizer jab
2. Does @SAHPRA1's approval mean you can have a #Pfizer booster after a #JnJ shot?

NO. It’s only the other way around (a #JnJ booster after a 2nd #Pfizer shot) that has been approved as a “mix and match” booster.
3. Why does @sahpra1’s “mix and match” approval not allow for a #Pfizer booster after a #JnJ shot?

Pfizer hasn’t submitted data to Sahpra for approval (#JnJ submitted the data 4 a #JnJ booster after #Pfizer).
Read 18 tweets
22 Dec 21
[Thread] 1. NEW study on how sick (or not) #Omicron makes people in SA
Full study here: bit.ly/3mo2Y2c (preprint)
2. Cheryl Cohen @nicd_sa:
1. #Omicron emerged in SA when:
- 60-70% of people in SA had been previously infected (so they have natural immunity)
2. Early data suggest less severe disease during the Omicron period
3. #Omicron replaced Delta VERY fast in SA - in Gauteng, where SA's Omicron outbreak started, it replaced Delta within 2 weeks (so it spreads fast).
Read 14 tweets
22 Dec 21
[Thread] 1. Where does #COVID19 test data in SA come from?
Adrian Puren, @nicd_sa:
1. From people with symptoms who get tested
2. From travelers
3. From both the public and private sector
2. All the #COVID19 testing data is then sent to the NICD and assembled in tables.
3. #COVID19 testing data can be found at these websites:
Read 4 tweets

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