* Breakdown of the numbers into the different regions
* Far West & Panhandle basically are done with their wave
* Wave has moved East and South, and obviously into Texas Metro Triangle now, which will drive numbers
12/30 TX Regional Analysis: Far West and Panhandle
* El Paso appears completely over
* Midland some cyclical minor growth
* Amarillo & Lubbock are flat & whatever growth there is is cyclical
* For now, the wave has moved through this area and its over. Well watch though
2/n
12/30 TX Regional Analysis: Texas Metro Triangle
* Austin and San Antonio have just started their rapid ascent.
* Dallas is also in the middle of rapid growth
* Houston has been driving the numbers, but the growth rate will soon taper. That's just how this works.
3/n
12/30 TX Regional Analysis: Other Texas Regions Pt 1
* Moving from West to East & then South
* West Texas showing some very moderate growth
* Same with Central
* Northeast Texas still really flat. Tyler maybe starting some moderate growth
4/n
12/30 TX Regional Analysis: Other Texas Regions Pt 2
* Galveston in a similar rise to Houston, just on a smaller scale obviously
* Some minor growth in LRGV and South Texas, but that area has been hit the hardest and has the least room for a wave. We will see.
5/n
12/30 TX Regional Analysis: Conclusion
* The wave moved Northwest to Southeast as predicted a month ago by me and others.
* We've got 3-4 weeks of this wave to ride out, so hang on.
* Happy New Year!
* May 2022 be the year this finally ends (maybe by November!)
6/end
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* A steep wave in regards to testing, cases and general hospitalizations, all of it in the Eastern half of the state
* Severe cases are lagging significantly behind
* Behaving like a summer wave, not at all like last winter
Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 12/20, a steep wave forming:
* Pos rate @ 12.57%, more growth to come
* Testing nearing 110K day
* Conversion of positives to cases will help to indicate where we are in the wave
2/n .
12/30 - Cases
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Growth rate is tapering, some of that may be due to the holiday
* More cases now than at this point in 2020 wave, which was much more steady and flat. This wave behaving like a Summer one.
* Analysis of 22 Texas TSA Hospital Regions grouped into 8 regional charts
* The Western part of the state has peaked for now. Will it stay that way? If so, not much of a wave
* Only new TX growth is in Houston
* Start Date on all Charts is Jun 1
* Census for all four TSAs are in decline, as is change in 7DMA
* El Paso & Amarillo is in strong decline, which mirrors case rates in New Mexico
* Are these areas post peak or another wave coming We'll see
2/n .
Texas Metro Triangle
* Only Houston showing strong recent growth. HOU can make a big impact to state numbers if it starts to offset the declines in 2/n
* The other three metros are really flat. The RoG charts show wave patterns that could indicate some growth is coming?
* Testing showing signs of growth
* Cases finally climbing pretty fast as expected
* Case growth will taper soon but continue steadily
* Hospitalizations still flat as can be
* "Winter Wave 2021" right now is a casedemic
Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 12/11:
* Pos rate @ 7.57%
* Testing was still < 90K/day, but coming days will show growth, as will pos rate
* Conversion of positives to cases finally increasing, hence the cases
2/n .
12/21 - Cases
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 cases playing a ton of catch up with positive tests, growth will slow soon
* Vs Winter 2020, while its catching up to the 7DMA, obviously a ton more cases to start the 2020 Winter wave
* Cases finally coming in after lagging way behind positive tests
* SE Texas is showing some spread, while W Texas is post peak
* Statewide testing and hospitalizations still flat as can be
* "Winter Wave 2021" is still a misnomer
Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 12/9:
* Pos rate @ 7.42%
* With Testing flat @ 90K/day, means Positives are flat
* But historically low conversion of positives to cases means lots of cases out there
2/n .
12/19 - Cases
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 cases finally showing up, but until positives jump, cases will likely flatten.
* While cases are rising, hospitalizations are flat as a pancake as the next 2 slides will show
* Cases finally starting to rise but growth may be short lived
* Houston may be percolating, while ELP & AMA have peaked
* Widespread immunity? Looks that way right now
* Winter 2020 wave continues to leave 2021 in the dust
Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 8 days old is incomplete
As of 12/6:
* Pos rate flat @ 7.20% & will stay flat for a few days
* With Testing flat @ 90K/day, means Positives are flat
* New Chart comparing Positives to Cases!
* Covidestim Rt 1.18
2/n .
12/16 - Cases
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 in a slow climb, but likely flattening in coming days.
* 2nd new chart comparing Positives to Cases, this one for the entire pandemic. Positives lead, then Cases, then conversion % trails
* Feel like I'm waiting on a wave that isn't coming
* Paddling on my surfboard in a calm ocean, might be time to paddle to shore and go home
* Widespread immunity? Starting to look that way
* Winter 2021 vs 2020 LOL
Tests filed by date of specimen collection, < 7-8 days old is incomplete
As of 12/4:
* Positivity rate really flattening, at 7.29%. Upcoming days are same
* Testing starting to flatten ~90K per day
* Cases will start flattening as well
* Covidestim Rt 1.18
2/n .
12/14 - Cases
* Cases are batched by date received by the county
* Winter 2021 in a slow climb, but likely flattening in coming days.
* 2021 Winter wave vs 2020, both positivity and cases, isn't comparable right now. -3 full points, and -3K cases.