Global #manufacturing output growth accelerated in December, coming back into line with growth of new orders, as supply constraints eased. Our #PMI wrap up in 10 charts bit.ly/3qRgGwc
While the number of companies worldwide reporting that output was constrained by shortages continued to run at 3.5 times the long-run average in December, this is down from a record peak of 4.7 times the long-run average back in October.
Although still running at a level far in excess of anything seen prior to the pandemic, the average lengthening of supplier delivery times globally eased for a second consecutive month in December to the smallest recorded since March.
An easing in the rate of increase of manufacturers’ input costs accompanied the cooling of supply chain pressures. Measured globally, input costs rose in December at the slowest pace since April, hinting that the rate of increase peaked back in October.
In a month in which Omicron led to a surge in global COVID-19 infections, the global PMI future expectations index showed encouraging resilience. The index dropped from 64.3 in November to 63.7 in December but remains above the long-run average of 62.4 .
Future expectations in fact even picked up in the US to the 2nd-highest in nearly 6 years, linked to the improving supply situation, and lifted higher both in the eurozone and Asia excl. Japan & China. The latter saw a notably marked downturn in expectations for the year ahead.

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More from @WilliamsonChris

22 Oct 21
The IHS Markit/CIPS flash UK #PMI rose from 54.9 in Sep to 56.8 in Oct, indicating the fastest expansion of the economy since July.

That's above the pre-pandemic survey average of 54.0 and indicative of roughly 0.7% q/q #GDP growth.

bit.ly/3m3apw0
UK growth is looking increasingly lop-sided, however, with the upturn led by the services sector, and consumer-facing and hospitality firms in particular driving the expansion for a third month running. In contrast, manufacturing saw production growth slide to near-stagnation.
While the service sector continued to benefit from the opening up of the economy, factories have been besieged by a further worsening of supply chain delays and ongoing staffing issues, as well as falling exports and what appears to have been diversion of spend toward services.
Read 14 tweets
24 Sep 21
While I was trying (in vain) to find petrol to drive my daughter to London for university tomorrow, a colleague who runs a laundry business told us how he was called to be informed that his lorry load of clean laundry had been deserted at a service station. His driver had been...
... having a break when someone offered to double his pay with a starting bonus if he'd drive for him. An offer too good to refuse, he simply went off leaving my friend in the lurch, a full lorry deserted in a service station. He had to scramble to get his property back. What ...
...an unscrupulous bunch of characters. What a mess this country seems to be in right now.
Read 5 tweets
23 Sep 21
UK PMIs, including flash September data, charted against Bank of England policy decisions underscores how unusual the current economic situation is, with price pressures accelerating while growth slows. bit.ly/3nXx9in
The further acceleration of price growth will add to concerns that the recent bout of inflation is proving less transitory than many suspected,
but the slowdown in growth is a reminder of the fragility of the recovery while the pandemic remains a disruptive force on the economy.
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep 21
UK #PMI data showed #construction activity slowing sharply in August. Given the amount of stimulus and relatively early stage in the recovery, to be slowing so close to the long-term trend is disappointing 1/4
Part of the slowdown can be linked to weaker growth of new orders for construction work, but as the chart shows, activity has slowed much more sharply than demand for new work, so there are other factors at play 2/4
Part of the slowdown is clearly linked to ongoing near-record #shortages of raw materials, as measured by suppliers' delivery times, which have in turn led to unprecedented price hikes for building materials in recent months 3/4
Read 4 tweets
1 Jul 21
#Manufacturing #PMI survey data reveal how the UK’s exporters have underperformed their peers in the eurozone to the greatest extent for over two decades so far this year, i.e. since the end of the #Brexit transition period.
bit.ly/3yfQGNc
UK suppliers of components in particular have seen only a marginal increase in export sales in the past six months, while similar firms in the eurozone, in contrast, has seen record export growth of component export sales.
This is itself an underperformance by UK suppliers of a degree never previously seen in at least 20 years of survey history
Read 6 tweets
23 Jun 21
The US continued to lead the global economic rebound in June, according to flash PMI data from IHS Markit, but also showed signs of growth peaking from May’s record expansion.
The eurozone meanwhile was alone among the four largest developed world economies in seeing growth accelerate in June, while Japan fell into a deeper contraction amid emergency measures to curb COVID-19 infections.
While the US saw the strongest expansion, it also again reported by far the steepest increase in prices charged for goods and services, though unprecedented price pressures continued to mount in Europe
Read 4 tweets

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