UK #PMI data showed #construction activity slowing sharply in August. Given the amount of stimulus and relatively early stage in the recovery, to be slowing so close to the long-term trend is disappointing 1/4
Part of the slowdown can be linked to weaker growth of new orders for construction work, but as the chart shows, activity has slowed much more sharply than demand for new work, so there are other factors at play 2/4
Part of the slowdown is clearly linked to ongoing near-record #shortages of raw materials, as measured by suppliers' delivery times, which have in turn led to unprecedented price hikes for building materials in recent months 3/4
Adding to the materials shortages are problems finding subcontractors (think chippies, sparkies, groundwork specialists etc). The availability of subcontractors deteriorated at a record rate excluding last year's shutdown, leading to a record rise rates charged by subbies 4/4

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More from @WilliamsonChris

1 Jul
#Manufacturing #PMI survey data reveal how the UK’s exporters have underperformed their peers in the eurozone to the greatest extent for over two decades so far this year, i.e. since the end of the #Brexit transition period.
bit.ly/3yfQGNc
UK suppliers of components in particular have seen only a marginal increase in export sales in the past six months, while similar firms in the eurozone, in contrast, has seen record export growth of component export sales.
This is itself an underperformance by UK suppliers of a degree never previously seen in at least 20 years of survey history
Read 6 tweets
23 Jun
The US continued to lead the global economic rebound in June, according to flash PMI data from IHS Markit, but also showed signs of growth peaking from May’s record expansion.
The eurozone meanwhile was alone among the four largest developed world economies in seeing growth accelerate in June, while Japan fell into a deeper contraction amid emergency measures to curb COVID-19 infections.
While the US saw the strongest expansion, it also again reported by far the steepest increase in prices charged for goods and services, though unprecedented price pressures continued to mount in Europe
Read 4 tweets
10 Jun
US #PMI data from @IHSMarkit show the economy surged in May, led by the largest expansion of consumer services activity on record. #GDP growth could reach double-digits as the economy opens up, adding further pressure on the #FOMC. More at bit.ly/3wnJVZb
@IHSMarkit Here's the latest @IHSMarkitPMI US survey data tracked against historical @FOMC policy decisions, highlighting the unprecedented surge in economic activity ...
@IHSMarkit @IHSMarkitPMI @fomc This economic boom in the US is being accompanied by price rises which far outpace the rate of inflation seen in other countries, with the PMI's index of prices charged for goods and services at a record high by some margin in the US....
Read 4 tweets
5 Jan
Global factory growth ends 2020 close to decade-highs, but supply worsens bit.ly/3bfKA7f
A key contributor to the relatively swift return of robust global #manufacturing growth in the recent months has been a revival in worldwide goods trade. There's some signs of this export boost fading though...
While there were some reports of demand having weakened amid resurgent waves of COVID-19 infections in many parts of the world, notably Europe, output, demand and trade flows were in many cases also constrained by rising supply problems.
Read 8 tweets
24 Jul 20
Flash @IHSMarkitPMI surveys show global economy on road to recovery from pandemic. The G4 economies’ flash #PMI output index rose from 46.5 in June to 51.1 in July, up further from an all-time low of 21.5 in April. Read more at bit.ly/3eTVFZP
@IHSMarkitPMI The statistical historical relationship of the flash PMI with global #GDP suggests that the latest reading is broadly consistent with the global economy growing by 2% on a year ago, up from a signal of 0.2% growth in June.
@IHSMarkitPMI Output has risen in both manufacturing and services on aggregate among the G4 economies (US, UK, Japan, Eurozone)
Read 8 tweets
5 Nov 19
UK economy in worst spell since 2009 as all-sector #PMI signals further contraction. PMI rose from 48.8 in Sep to 49.5 in Oct, but declines have now been recorded in four of the past five months 1/
The Oct PMI indicates GDP q/q rate of fall of -0.1%, similar that signalled by in Q3. Official data are likely to have indicated more robust growth in Q3, the PMI warns that some of this strength reflects a pay-back from a steeper decline than signalled by the surveys in Q2 2/
Manufacturing remains in worst spell since 2012 while construction is in deepest downturn since 2009, with both in recession. Services meanwhile stagnated, improving on the decline seen in September but still suggesting that the sector is stuck in its worst patch since 2012 3/
Read 12 tweets

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