Thread by @BaluSreevidya

PM security breach in Punjab – why did this happen?

My analysis.

First, I don’t think this was an assassination plot. If it were, some attempt would have been made. There is no motive to assassinate @narendramodi just before the state elections.

I think this is caused by

Modi’s surprise act of repealing Farm Laws.

We know this is signature Congress move. They are desperate too.

Punjab is their last standing bastion. With elections round the corner, its position is very weak.

On one side they don’t know the impact of Captain’s departure

and the rifts in the remaining faction with and without Sidhu factor.

On the other, there is an undercurrent of anti-incumbency with many protests surfacing over the past few months.

Farmers are not as united behind the protest as the Congress and AAP would have hoped.

I am reluctant to discount Kejriwal’s hands from this, but he has no apparent reason to do this now in Punjab as his party seems to be in a good position.

So, it’s only Congress that has everything to lose. In this crazy democratic order, corrupt parties like Congress

need cash flow to maintain the party.

Corruption, extortion, and commission are possible only when a party is in rule.

In the next part of my quoted thread here, I will cover more on how parties maintain jobless workers.

https://twitter.com/BaluSreevidya/status/1451517331486638085

So, why did Congress do this NOW?

They are in the safest space to try something like this.

We must know that there could be Plan As, Plan Bs and so on for the Break-India Forces, and it’s clear from the animated video in 2020 that this was a plot from their playbook.

However, as said, this was not an assassination plot. This plot was to provoke action from the Centre. They hoped:

At the event,

1.SPG to start firing
or
2.Modi Ji to walk to the protestors, where they can challenge and be handled by the Police to make a huge propaganda tool

Post the event,

3.To get the Punjab Government dismissed (just like how hard Mamta tried in Bengal before Bengal elections)

4.To get the elections postponed which will give time to cook up something in their favour.

Why was Congress pushed to this?

When Modi withdrew the Farm Laws on an important day for the Sikhs, Congress was stunned.

They had pinned all their hopes on rioting on Farm Laws to ensure their victory in Punjab. This was how the party was winning elections in the past.

Captain already started using the repeal to gain support of farmers in Punjab.

With the most familiar face of Congress campaigning against, with the loss of a great plot to riot and gain attention, Congress is faced with its bare bone.

Buying time is their only hope.

Not a single Congress leader except M Tiwari said a word in condemnation of the event.

Instead, from Delhi to Kerala, either a deafening silence from them, or deliberate silly taunting and trivialising.

Mostly aimed at the emotional BJP supporters who will demand revenge.

They have seen how a section of the SM always demands movie like instant action.

The state CM not greeting the PM, refusing to take calls during this time, and then making scathing attacks on BJP shows the objective is to provoke, not to clarify and explain their side.

Unfortunately for them, BJP is simply not playing that game although the galleries are cheering for it.

If bullets were fired, Congress will seal their victory with the narrative “Modi ordered firing on innocent ‘farmers’ as a revenge of their protest in Delhi.

If the govt is dismissed, they can create a sympathy wave saying PM is taking revenge on having to repeal the Farm Laws.

If the elections are postponed citing this security breach, then that gives time for Congress to think of other crooked options to gain voters.

Either way, all scenarios were carefully developed and very beneficial for Congress in Punjab.

Alas, such meticulous plan was fully thwarted by:
1.SPG not opening fire
2.Modi not walking/travelling to the protestors where the Police could have been provoked to fire

3.Modi turning around and returning - most unanticipated move

4.Modi not dismissing Punjab Government

5.Election date finalised yet – still have some hope for them.

Modi’s every response is calculated, with the element of surprise which is the only thing that will foil all such plots.

Allowing dissent as I have stated in my pinned tweet is part of this.

Modi is refusing to play their game and is always a step ahead in this game.

Now, the whole country is accusing the state government. No sympathy wave, and everything backfired for them.

On the contrary, the impact of the attempted assassination narrative will hugely benefit BJP in the rest of the states, especially UP and Uttarakhand where

national security is always an election issue. Huge buzz already in those states with BJP’s prayers and Pujas for the PM.

To thrill the gallery, BJP will not play this game and lose their position in the state or elsewhere during these elections.

They will leave everything to the committee and allow law to take it logical course. They will not offer any fuel to the fire.

BJP thinks short, medium and long term. Many followers think only short term, this is why they get disappointed.

With 303 seats in the LS, they can do many things, but will have to be ready to see a revival of the opposition as a consequence.

Not even the GOP of America could bridle the leftist international and national media. Let alone BJP, who is a deadly enemy to those who are

trying to break our country.

In this game, BJP has been and still is the winner. Congress will need to think differently.

When their leader returns from wherever he has gone, they will spring up a new plan.

It’s a curious matter that close on heels with this leader’s foreign trips, events like these happen in India.

Should his handlers not know that this is getting very obvious to Indians?

#PMModiSecurityBreach
#PMSecurityLapse
#PMOIndia