1) Unfortunately, the #pandemic is once again causing a surge of #COVID deaths across Quebec, even outpacing the latest mortality rates in all other provinces and many jurisdictions around the world. In this thread, I will examine this tragic turn for the worse in the fifth wave.
2) First, it’s important to pause and reflect on a grim milestone in Quebec that largely went unnoticed: on Tuesday, the province crossed the threshold of 12,000 deaths. On Wednesday, the official #pandemic death toll rose to 12,080. May all these souls rest in peace.
3) To put this toll in context, COVID was the third leading cause of death in the province in 2020 (8,349) after cancer (21,583) and heart disease (15,653), according to the most recent data by the Institut de la statistique du Québec. The flu, by comparison, caused 340 deaths.
4) In the Canadian context, the seven-day average of #COVID deaths in Quebec is not only the highest but is rising faster than other provinces. For example, Manitoba’s seven-day average was 3 per million population on Tuesday. By Wednesday, it dipped to 2.7. What about Quebec?
5) On Tuesday, Quebec reported a seven-day average of 3.3 COVID deaths per one million inhabitants. On Wednesday, the Institut nationale de santé publique (INSPQ) declared an average of 4 per million population. Please review the chart below.
6) Sadly, the international comparison between Quebec and other nations around the world appears to be even worse. On Tuesday, Quebec’s seven-day average ranked third after the United States and Italy, according to an INSPQ analysis. France was just below Quebec.
7) On Wednesday, Quebec rose to second place on the INSPQ’s international death list, still considerably below the seven-day average of the United States. But Quebec’s average is now higher than Italy, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. Please see the INSPQ table below.
8) Premier François Legault was correct Tuesday in noting that the current onslaught of #COVID deaths is much lower than during the first wave in the late winter and early spring of 2020. However, the declaration of 62 deaths Tuesday and 52 Wednesday does not bode well.
9) Legault had previously suggested Quebec does a better job in compiling #COVID deaths than other jurisdictions. « Le Québec a toujours eu la réputation, comme on dit en québécois, d'être plus catholique que le pape, » Legault said on April 14, 2020.
10) But the question to ask more than two years into this #pandemic is whether other jurisdictions around the world are still behind Quebec in its rigorous methodology of declaring deaths. The other question to ask is when will Quebec’s latest COVID mortality wave peak?
11) For now, at least one noticeable change has taken place since Dr. Luc Boileau was named head of public health Tuesday. Those who recently had #COVID can now get a third shot after symptoms end. This is what Boileau’s predecessor previously recommended: odysee.com/@Futurhorizon:…
12)Quebec is also speeding up its vaccine rollout, announcing that as of Friday adults in all age groups will be eligible for a third shot. Final question: will Quebec make changes to its Jan. 17 back-to-school plan with Dr. Boileau at the helm of public health? End of thread.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

9 Jan
1) As Quebec is now in the grip of an Omicron-driven wave — with #COVID19 hospitalizations up by 140 to 2,436 — it’s worth noting how the #pandemic is worsening elsewhere, too. In this thread, I will examine the impact in other parts of the world, and the implications for Quebec.
2) First, #COVID19 infections are now rising in 132 countries around the world, up by two since yesterday alone, according to a reliable tally by Reuters. As you can see from the chart below, it’s proliferating again in Italy and India, among other nations.
3) Lest skeptics dismiss this latest wave as a “casedemic,” I would like to point out that #COVID deaths are tragically once again climbing all over the world. The chart below by the Washington Post shows such deaths now surging on every continent.
Read 10 tweets
7 Jan
1) Despite the fact #COVID hospitalizations, ICU stays and deaths are surging once again in Quebec, several hospital mangers have told me that they’re cautiously optimistic this fifth wave will soon start subsiding. In this thread, I'll assess whether such optimism is justified.
2) Much of this optimism is based on the experience in South Africa, where #Omicron emerged in November. On Dec. 30, the South African government released a statement saying that “all indicators suggest the country may have passed the peak of a fourth wave at a national level."
3) What’s more, South African doctors were declaring less severe illness among those who contracted Omicron. Here, front-line doctors have been observing a similar trend in Quebec’s Omicron-driven wave.
Read 11 tweets
19 Dec 21
1) Happy Holidays, everyone! Although I will be returning to work on Jan. 4, I wanted to underscore the seriousness of this, the 5th wave of the #COVID19 pandemic in Quebec. In this thread, I will focus on rising hospitalizations among the doubly-vaccinated.
2) First, I can’t emphasize enough the importance of getting vaccinated against #COVID19. The non-vaccinated are nearly 15 times more likely to be hospitalized with #COVID in Quebec than those who have received two shots. But it’s become clear even two shots may not be enough.
3) As the chart below shows, on Nov. 18, the province recorded 17 new #COVID19 hospitalizations. Of that number, a dozen were among the non-vaccinated or those who got a first dose. But five individuals were hospitalized despite two doses. Who were those five?
Read 12 tweets
24 Jun 21
1) Quebec on Wednesday fell from second to third place in its #COVID19 vaccination rate among provinces, behind British Columbia. Surprisingly, Ontario is now in first place among provinces, as the chart below indicates.
2) What’s more, nearly 24% of Ontario’s population is fully vaccinated compared with 18.86% in Quebec. Clearly, Quebec has a lot more to do to find ways for younger adults to get vaccinated, including the possibility of paid leave to workers seeking second shots.
3) Despite lower-than-expected vaccinations and #COVID19 testing, Montreal continues to report reassuring numbers under the direction of its apolitical head of public health, Dr. Mylène Drouin. The chart below shows a decrease of 30 #COVID19 outbreaks in the city since last week.
Read 11 tweets
23 Jun 21
1) Quebec on Tuesday fell from first to second place in its #COVID19 vaccination rate among provinces, ceding the coveted spot to British Columbia. This reflects the fact that Quebec has been struggling to encourage younger adults to go get their shots. Image
2) On Tuesday, Quebec Premier François Legault again suggested a vaccine lottery for those who have been immunized fully, but there are other incentives that might be more effective, like giving workers a paid time off to get their shots, as other provinces are doing.
3) As things now stand, at least 17.79% of Quebec’s population has been fully immunized and 70.3% partially. At the current rate of 600,000 vaccination a week, it would probably take another nine weeks to fully vaccinate most of the province’s population.
Read 8 tweets
22 Jun 21
1) Quebec Premier François Legault floated the idea on Monday of a vaccine lottery to encourage younger adults to get their #COVID19 shots, this after a relatively low 57,000 doses were administered in the province on Saturday. montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/qu…
2) Although Quebec is facing a delay in a Pfizer shipment that was supposed to be delivered over the weekend (and will arrive instead on June 24 or June 25), the latest stats show that Quebecers aged 18 to 29 still trail other demographics, including 12 to 17-year-olds.
3) With the province opening up this summer and #COVID19 variants circulating, full vaccination is critical. But on Monday, just 16.87% of Quebec’s population was fully immunized, up from 16.25% the day before. Quebec can and should do much better.
Read 9 tweets

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