Thread by @pmdfoster

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As ⁦@trussliz⁩ and ⁦@MarosSefcovic⁩ meet to try and fix #brexit NI Protocol new ⁦@ManufacturingNI⁩ survey shows #NorthernIreland manufacturers making ‘significant’ post-Brexit strides in adjusting to Protocol @FT /1
on.ft.com/3qvTR2h

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT Since July the number of @ManufacturingNI members "struggling" with the protocol has dropped below 25pc...compared to more than 40pc in July. It's moving in the right direction, it seems./2

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT The survey, to be published Friday, also shows EU suppliers are getting easier (last year it seemed that many hadn't got full message that Northern Ireland is part of EU single market for goods) and trade with GB has also picked up/3

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT As @ManufacturingNI boss Stephen Kelly @Big_Kells tells me, business still wants some refinements/easements -- and that means both EU and UK moving -- but equally business IS getting on with an imperfect deal. And there are upsides for some/4

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT @Big_Kells Interestingly the number of firms saying their NI-GB trade was hit is down from a third to a fifth. The number of those reporting positive impact on business from Protocol is up to 20% from 6% in July./5

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT @Big_Kells And as EU exports to GB get harder with new controls, there's chance that actually NI starts to pick up business further as a result of the Protocol giving them a foot in both EU and UK internal markets /6

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT @Big_Kells This is not to say that Protocol is all fine and dandy -- its a headache, as we know for food companies particularly -- but this data does point to business adapting. And worth recalling that manufacturing had many less easements than others/7

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT @Big_Kells The data are also a reminder that the discussion about the Protocol should be anchored in the real world; not where bits of the UK Govt (and ERG) and sections of Unionist politics have got themselves. I can see why they bitterly regret the deal, but it was the agreed solution/8

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT @Big_Kells The biz community definitely wants to make it work, and even though the discussion is now focussing in on the border technical issues, the reality is that both sides are quite a long way apart. The UK still wants to fundamentally reverse the burdens of the deal/9

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT @Big_Kells But given that a lot of the upsides seen in data above comes from being in EU single market for goods, there's a limit (EU officials say repeatedly) to what the EU can do, legally and politically./10

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT @Big_Kells So even aiming off for a bit of political poetic licence, Truss's "no checks" on goods going GB-NI is in a different space to Sefco's offer of 50pc reduction in customs/80pc SPS, taking full Protocol as base/11

@trussliz @MarosSefcovic @ManufacturingNI @FT @Big_Kells It will be hard -- must be a chance it gets scrappy, but both sides back away from ultimate confrontation and it all rumbles on. Hope that's wrong, but feels that only solution, for now, is for time and space to settle it down. ENDS