Thread by @ABarbashin

What do Russians think about the war with Ukraine and Russian - NATO confrontation? Will they support overt activity?
Thread based on Levada's director Denis Volkov piece for @RiddleRussia
ridl.io/en/we-are-bein…
1/9

50% of Russians think major war with Ukraine is impossible;
39% think otherwise.
1/4 believe war with NATO is possible(highest number ever); the rest think otherwise
2/9

62% of Russians, highest since collapse of the USSR feared war in the spring of 2021 - after Putin/Biden meeting in December it dropped to 56%.
3/9

50% of Russians believe West/NATO is responsible for where we are now. Only 3%-4%(!!!) of Russians think Kremlin is responsible.
Denis notes that for most Russians all FP news merge into one negative story and almost no one is going extra mile to attempt to find out details
4/9

"Respondents often mention fatigue from Ukraine topic, from foreign policy in general and from confrontation with West. Therefore, there is no desire to analyze what is happening in detail, to look for alternatives, to double-check the words of officials and TV show hosts"
5/9

"Under pressure of mainstream public opinion, few individuals who have a different view of what is happening do not dare to express their opinion out of fear of disapproval and ostracism, accusations of a lack of patriotism or possible punishment at the hands of authorities"
6/9

Volkov notes that ongoing saber rattling does not increase any of the ratings of state officials. People are too tired of this.
But there is a big but: "In the event of a real conflict (as opposed to a hypothetical one, as is the case right now) there would most likely be
7/9

a mobilisation of public opinion. That is why it is necessary to look not at the ratings per se but at entire picture of Russians’ perceptions of a possible conflict with Ukraine and West. And Russian society, although fearful of such a conflict, is prepared for it internally
8/9

Denis leaves with important point - very fact of negotiations improves the way Russian view NATO and the US. Negotiations and diplomatic consetions can do wonders to Russian public opinion. But again check the tweet above. And do read the whole piece
9/9
ridl.io/en/we-are-bein…