Karaganov often speaks what Russia's most conservative foreign policy minds think (military but not only)
Few gems from his recent interview:
1/12
What can Russia do to force US to take it seriously?
Karaganov says Russia has three ways - beefing up military presence across the board, strengthening military alliance with China, cyberwar
2/12
Karaganov says if it was not for nukes, West would have already attacked Russia.
He says it is better for Russia to relive Cuban missile crisis than second June 22nd of 1941. In other words, better escalate now, on Russia's term than be attacked later. Not being attacked
3/12
as it seems is not an option; Karaganov says NATO is Europe's cancer; but Russia can't fix it - it can only limit the spread.
Karaganov claims Russia is more powerful than USSR and is better prepared to fight.
4/12
He says that if the West agrees with Russia now, in 10 years we would be friends and that's good for Russia's balancing of China.
As long as the West isn't ruled by LGBTQ people, he says.
5/12
And now to the part where it gets interesting:
Kazakhstan to Karaganov have proven than collapse of "fake post-soviet states" will come earlier than anticipated - thus Russia will need to reclaim (!!!) some of its lands back
6/12
Says it is a problem because he wished this money would have been spent on development of Siberia and Far East instead of reintegration of Russia's "former lands".
7/12
Ukraine is a buffer zone - if it would become part of the West it would be taken by "dark forces" and alike Baltic states and Poland be the residence of evil in Europe.
BUT! Says no military intervention is feasible.
8/12
Essentially, Karaganov says that NATO and the West should leave Ukraine alone, either let it rot and come begging Moscow to take it back or become a "proper buffer state" and leave peacefully as Russia's junior partner and prosper. No other options.
9/12
Few conclusions: 1. This is an anti-war call. Not because Karaganov is a pacifist but because he is confident Moscow can force Washington compromise over Ukraine and NATO in general without major bloodshed. Invasion would be too much for Russia, he asserts.
10/12
2. Karaganov yet again confirms that Putin's demands are not only about Ukraine and NATO; Putin wants to secure his western border and have a full right to do what he wants with nations in between and have the same right to do what he "must" in the south.
11/12
3. Essentially - give Russia the right for all former Soviet Union lands and Russia will be your friend.
And yes, the time is now - because Moscow perceives the West to be weak and Russia to be relatively capable. Moscow knows it might get weaker in the long-run.
12/12
What do Russians think about the war with Ukraine and Russian - NATO confrontation? Will they support overt activity?
Thread based on Levada's director Denis Volkov piece for @RiddleRussia ridl.io/en/we-are-bein…
1/9
50% of Russians think major war with Ukraine is impossible;
39% think otherwise. 1/4 believe war with NATO is possible(highest number ever); the rest think otherwise
2/9
62% of Russians, highest since collapse of the USSR feared war in the spring of 2021 - after Putin/Biden meeting in December it dropped to 56%.
3/9
Few observations about reader preferences with Russia analysis. So, we @RiddleRussia@RidlRussia posted most read articles of the year with: #Riddletop10_2021 and #Riddle_топ_2021. We have about same amount of people reading us in English and in Russian.
Out of 10 most read
articles only two made it to both lists, Vladimir Gelman on #Sputnik "success story" ridl.io/en/sputnik-v-o… and Igor Gretskiy on Russia - NATO relations in 1990s ridl.io/en/could-the-w…;
Topics of most interest to English speaking readers: simply foreign policy - Russia and
Ukraine, Afghanistan, Syria, China, Central Asia, Libya and Russian military. Among a few exceptions is @fa_burkhardt's piece on PM Mishustin's ambitions ridl.io/en/foolproofin…;
For Russian speakers it is much more diverse list: elections (Smart Voting efficiency -
Seeing a lot of speculation about Russia's timing over escalation with Ukraine and NATO. Some have argued this is about Russia's domestic transition while others insist this is EU/US presumably "weak" moment that made Russia move. Few thoughts. THREAD 1/16
I don't buy the argument that Putin is about to leave office...in 2024 and thus he wants to close the page over Ukraine and secure Russia's western border for good, so he could retire and enjoy occasional mojito in his southern palace at Cape Idokopas. 2/16
I have strong doubts he will leave in 2024 and even if he does step down as president to become a "national leader" or some other fancy title to indeed supervise his own transit (like in KZ) this does not explain the seemingly unbearable urgency of the moment. 3/16
Very interesting read by one of Russia's leading China experts (probably the main one on Chinese military) Vasily Kashin on #Lithuania - #China feud and its growing importance for international relations. Moscow is watching this space very close. Thread 1/7
Kashin asserts that Lithuania was purposefully aggravating its relationship with China in order to get US support.
Long story short: China decided to show its full strength and delisted LT in its customs records, de-facto prohibiting any imports of LT-produced goods 2/7
Beijing has also imposed de-facto corporate ban for companies working with LT: making it hard for international firms working with LT to work with China at the same time (kind of like secondary sanctions);
The goal is to tests China's arsenal of coercions and test EU 3/7
Vladislav Inozemtsev here argues you can't defeat Putin, you can only outlive him. Why?
Thread 1/14 ridl.io/en/outliving-p…
Putin’s system is in some ways not a state in the traditional sense of the word. It lacks clear ideology; it has rather blurred and undefined boundaries; and, most importantly, it does not distinguish between the private and public spheres, treating both quite arbitrarily 2/14
It is hostile to legal culture as such, constantly changing the rules and passing vague laws that could victimise any of its subjects at any given time. The nature of this bizarre regime is set by the main goal of its beneficiaries: personal enrichment. 3/14
Fresh @levada_ru about the ongoing escalation over Ukraine.
Only 4%(!) believe Russia is responsible
50% think it is NATO
16% - Ukraine
3% - DNR/LNR
Thread
75%(!!!) do not exclude it could lead to Russia - Ukraine war
Of them, 3% think it is inevitable, 36% - highly likely, 38% - least likely;
only 15% think it is impossible
What does it say? 1. Propaganda continues to work quite well when it come to foreign policy, Kremlin fully controls the narrative. 2. The language of "defense" appeal impeccably. See Olesya Zakharova on how it is constructed - ridl.io/en/the-languag…;