1) In the span of just one week, Quebec's gone from ranking third among industrialized jurisdictions in its seven-day average of #COVID deaths per 100,000 population to first — by far. In this thread, I will suggest this might reflect the collapse of the province’s health system.
2) Consider the following: some #COVID patients are being asked to carry oxygen tanks home for self-treatment, a story I broke last week. In at least one nursing home, there are so many COVID-positive patients it makes more sense to keep the negative ones isolated in their rooms.
3) The super-contagious #Omicron variant has resulted in 12,000 health workers on leave, down from 20,000 two weeks ago. But the 12,000 tally equals that of the #pandemic’s first wave and does not take into account tens of thousands of other workers absent for other reasons.
4) Cancer and heart patients are having their surgeries postponed — a turn for the worse that didn't really occur during the #pandemic's first wave in 2020. Putting off clinical activities, or délestage, is expanding to other hospitals. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
5) And today, the Health Ministry scrambled to hold an afternoon technical briefing explaining its latest plan to deal with the #COVID crisis after Radio-Canada broke the story of a controversial guide proposing that family members help care for their loved ones in hospital.
6) Quebec’s health network was very fragile before the #pandemic — the result of an austerity regime of cutbacks that likely cost the provincial Liberals the last election. And that network has since been bombarded by five #COVID waves. It appears the system can no longer cope.
7) In nearly a quarter century of covering health care in Quebec, I have never seen the system in such a chaotic state of disarray. And I would suggest Quebec is facing the most difficult challenges of all provinces in keeping #COVID and other deaths down right now.
8) These struggles may already be reflected in the #COVID mortality rates across the country. Each province compiles its #COVID deaths in its own way and this hasn’t changed in a week. Thus, all things being equal in this regard, Quebec is sadly far ahead. See the chart below.
9) And I would venture that Quebec’s resurgence of #COVID deaths is pushing Canada’s overall mortality rate up. Please look at the chart below that appears to show how the country’s #pandemic mortality wave is coming close to reaching the peak of the second wave last January.
10) The international comparison is tragically more telling. The chart below by the Institut nationale de santé publique (INSPQ) shows dramatically the extent of the #COVID death surge in Quebec in just one week’s time.
11) This amounts to an SOS for help from the Canadian government to provide additional resources to Quebec in its dire time of need. The latest developments should also give the Quebec government pause as it considers relaxing more #pandemic restrictions. End of thread.
Addendum: A sharp-eyed reader spotted an error in my first tweet. The rate I was alluding to is #COVID deaths per million population, not 100,000. My apologies. Still, it doesn't change the overall meaning of this Twitter thread.
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1) On the day Quebec registered 98 new #COVID deaths — the highest since May 2020 — Premier François Legault appeared more interested in talking about the concept of excess deaths (surmortalité) while citing figures from last September. Why did he do this?
2) Before I return to the topic of surmortalité, I would like to draw your attention to what is now going on in the #pandemic in Quebec and the fact that this latest wave of deaths is poised to surpass the one last January. Please see the chart below.
3) The current mortality wave in Quebec looks to have started on Jan. 10. Quebec is compiling #COVID deaths the same way it has since the start of the #pandemic. Thus, the chart from last January (please see below) suggests the current wave is deadlier.
1) Here's a brief Twitter thread before Quebec Premier François Legault holds a 2 p.m. news conference today on the #pandemic. Please view the chart below of last January's #COVID mortality wave in Quebec, prior to Omicron. 👇
2) Please note that for the purposes of this chart, the cumulative #COVID deaths start as of Jan. 10, 2021. At this point in time, vaccination efforts had started only weeks earlier in Quebec's long-term care centres.
3) Now review the chart below for the corresponding period this year. Note the daily #COVID deaths and cumulative total are higher. This comparison isn't intended to slam the effectiveness of vaccination. On the contrary, without the shots, the deaths would have been much higher.
1) There are signs daily #COVID deaths may be starting to subside in the U.S. Unfortunately, that doesn't appear to be the case in Canada. And within Canada, it’s Quebec that's likely driving up the country’s wave of #pandemic deaths. In this thread, I will examine these trends.
2) The chart below by the Washington Post shows clearly that the latest seven-day average of #COVID deaths in Canada is still rising, with the latest rate being 0.32 deaths per 100,000 population or 3.2 per million inhabitants. Please see below.
3) In contrast, the U.S. seven-day rolling average of #COVID deaths may have peaked. To gain a better idea of this trend in the United States, it makes sense to look at the chart below compiled by Our World in Data. That international chart shows the U.S. drop more clearly.
1) On Sunday, out of the blue, Premier François Legault tweeted the latest ICU COVID numbers for Quebec and Ontario after insisting for days that making such comparisons was not fair. In this thread, I will try to explain why such an ICU comparison might actually favor Ontario.
2) At first glance, Legault’s tweet would appear to suggest Quebec is handling the 5th wave of the #pandemic much better than Ontario. “Number of COVID patients in intensive care: Quebec: 282 Ontario: 579,” Legault tweeted yesterday.
3) Almost immediately, Legault’s observation sent journalists scrambling to place the Premier’s tweet into context, pointing out correctly that Ontario’s population is a lot bigger, 14.7 million, while Quebec’s stands at 8.6 million.
1) The wave of #pandemic deaths in Quebec is not only poised to rise higher in the coming days, but it may even surpass last January’s wave. In this thread, I will examine this baleful trend while explaining who is now dying from #COVID19 in the province.
2) First, today’s announcement of 96 COVID deaths is the highest to date in the Omicron-fuelled wave that started last month. The tally likely includes deaths not only from yesterday but previous days, too. These are people who died from #COVID and with COVID.
3) Quebec is using the same methodology in compiling #COVID deaths as it did last January. Thus, on the same date last year, Quebec declared 62 COVID deaths. Please review my chart below comparing the past five days with the corresponding period last year.
1) Tragically, the wave of COVID deaths may be ramping up in Quebec. The province declared 68 deaths today from the day before, the biggest single-day increase since the start of the Omicron-fuelled resurgence. In this thread, I will examine this ominous trend.
2) In the past six weeks, the number of COVID deaths in Quebec jumped from 11,581 on Dec. 1 to 12,193 — an increase of 612. In just the past four days, the province has declared 227 deaths. So how does Quebec compare with its more populous neighbor, Ontario?
3) Ontario’s latest seven-day average stands at 30 COVID deaths. In contrast, Quebec’s most recent seven-day average is 46. Does this mean that Quebec is declaring its deaths more accurately than Ontario? I can’t answer that question.