1) The wave of #pandemic deaths in Quebec is not only poised to rise higher in the coming days, but it may even surpass last January’s wave. In this thread, I will examine this baleful trend while explaining who is now dying from #COVID19 in the province.
2) First, today’s announcement of 96 COVID deaths is the highest to date in the Omicron-fuelled wave that started last month. The tally likely includes deaths not only from yesterday but previous days, too. These are people who died from #COVID and with COVID.
3) Quebec is using the same methodology in compiling #COVID deaths as it did last January. Thus, on the same date last year, Quebec declared 62 COVID deaths. Please review my chart below comparing the past five days with the corresponding period last year. 
4) What the chart in my previous tweet suggests is the Omicron wave might surpass last January’s resurgence. La Presse journalist Pierre-André Normandin, who’s been tracking the #pandemic insightfully in Quebec, cited the following chart below on the province’s rising deaths.
5) Please let me draw your attention to the blue line to the far right in the La Presse chart below, marked Jan. 15, today. You will note it’s higher than it was during the peak of last January’s mortality wave.
6) Normandin tweeted: “The toll of 96 COVID deaths today (daily average of 53) — one would have to go back to mid-May of 2020 during the first wave to find a heavier toll.” Of course, this doesn’t mean this wave will be worse than last January’s, but it doesn’t look promising.
7) The Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) released its latest #COVID death projections yesterday. There's no provincial breakdown, but the model clearly shows #pandemic deaths rising until at least Jan. 23. Please see the chart below.
8) The Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has produced it own #pandemic mortality projections for Canada. Please take a look at the IHME projections below, which are considerably rosier than those by the PHAC.
9) So which projections are more accurate? I would venture that it’s those by the Public Health Agency of Canada. In Quebec, the Institut nationale de santé publique (INSPQ) released #COVID mortality projections on Thursday, but they apply only to the greater Montreal region.
10) The INSPQ chart below includes mortality projections under two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic. The optimistic projection shows #COVID deaths peaking at the end of this month, while the pessimistic forecast simply shows a higher peak.
11) But my Twitter threads and reporting are not simply based on reviewing or producing charts, and then making extrapolations. I’m also basing my analyses on extensive interviews with front-line workers in the health network. And what are they saying?
12) “We are much better at caring for COVID patients than we used to be,” one veteran ER nurse told me. “They used to be all intubated, for example, and now we are giving them Optiflow, etc. So if we are better at looking after them, why so many deaths?”
13) “Not enough staff,” the Montreal ER nurse responded to his own question. “More staff out equals more deaths. People just don’t seem to understand that there are consequences when nurses have too many patients. Things get missed. Corners get cut. People die.”
14) “Last night, one nurse had 10 monitored patients in the (ER),” my source continued. “It is virtually impossible to take care of that many...patients properly. All it takes is one very sick patient and if the nurse does not pick up on it immediately, that patient can die.”
15) Quebec’s Health Minister, Christian Dubé, has acknowledged that as many as 70,000 health workers — yes, a record 70,000 — are missing from the network. At the same time, a record 3,195 people are hospitalized for and with #COVID in Quebec.
16) Thus, the combination of soaring hospitalizations, coupled with widespread absenteeism in Quebec’s health network, might explain why #COVID deaths are now surging. And Quebec’s rising deaths have been pulling ahead of all other provinces. See below.
17) It’s now time to answer the burning question many of you have been asking me. Who has been dying from and with COVID in the past six weeks? Preliminary data gleaned from the INSPQ show that since Dec. 1, the age demographic dying the most are those aged 80 to 89.
18) The next group are those who are at least 90 years old, followed by septuagenarians, people in their sixties, then those in their fifties, followed by Quebecers in their forties, twenties, and finally, the thirties. But I stress that this data is still very preliminary.
19) Perhaps the better question to ask is where are Quebecers now dying? As you may recall, the vast majority of people died from #COVID in long-term care during Quebec’s first wave, and the place least likely in which to die was the home, where most younger Quebecers live.
20) That scenario of the first wave appears to have been turned on its head in the fifth wave. Please look at the chart below. The dark blue in the first wave are deaths in long-term care (by far, the most), and the sliver at the top in baby blue are “at home or unknown” deaths.
21) Now please look at the fifth wave: it’s the “at home or unknown” deaths that comprise most current #COVID deaths, while the long-term care deaths in dark blue are at the bottom of the fifth wave. But my observation is not just based on this chart.
22) I’ve reviewed the preliminary daily INSPQ mortality data concerning place of death since last Dec. 1. Nearly 80 per cent of #COVID deaths have occurred “at home or unknown” since Dec. 1. This picture might well change as more data rolls in, but it’s nonetheless quite telling.
23) Many astute observers would like the Quebec government to divulge data on deaths by vaccination status. Although this data has not yet been disclosed, one can nevertheless make a fairly safe extrapolation.
24) The preliminary figures probably suggest that far fewer residents in long-term care are dying from #COVID in this fifth wave because they have been the most adequately vaccinated against the #coronavirus of all age groups. Still, some elders are dying in long-term care.
25) What’s more, the preliminary data would appear to show that it’s people in their 80s and 90s who are living at home — basically shut-ins — who may not have yet received their third #COVID dose, and sadly, they are the ones who are now dying the most.
26) Premier François Legault has not been talking much about the latest #COVID deaths, which the U.S. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation states is the “best indicator of the progression of the pandemic.” Instead, he has preferred to talk about hospitalizations.
27) But when the Premier has spoken about deaths, he has stated how Quebec has been compiling #COVID deaths more accurately than many other jurisdictions. Although this is true, it risks deflecting attention from the current horrific death toll.
28) Mr. Legault has also cited a term many Quebecers are unfamiliar with — excess deaths — to suggest Quebec is doing much better than other provinces. But the stats he’s citing are two years old. Again, this risks shifting attention from what is happening now.
29) Quebec’s climbing #COVID deaths should be a call to arms to mobilize all resources as never before to blunt the impact of this, the fifth wave. Too many lives are at stake. End of thread. Please go get your #COVID shot and wear an N95 mask.
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