1) Tragically, the wave of COVID deaths may be ramping up in Quebec. The province declared 68 deaths today from the day before, the biggest single-day increase since the start of the Omicron-fuelled resurgence. In this thread, I will examine this ominous trend.
2) In the past six weeks, the number of COVID deaths in Quebec jumped from 11,581 on Dec. 1 to 12,193 — an increase of 612. In just the past four days, the province has declared 227 deaths. So how does Quebec compare with its more populous neighbor, Ontario?
3) Ontario’s latest seven-day average stands at 30 COVID deaths. In contrast, Quebec’s most recent seven-day average is 46. Does this mean that Quebec is declaring its deaths more accurately than Ontario? I can’t answer that question.
4) But what is beyond dispute is that Quebec’s rate of death is outpacing those of all other provinces in the past few days. Please consult the chart below prepared by the Institut nationale de santé publique du Québec (INSPQ). 
5) Premier François Legault was correct when he stated earlier this week that excess mortality is arguably the best indicator to assess the severity of the #pandemic. But the excess mortality Legault was alluding to concerned 2020 and 2021 — not what is now occurring.
6) Excess mortality in Quebec will take longer to calculate. Thus, the only reliable indicator at present are the INSPQ inter-provincial comparisons to evaluate the severity of the #COVID wave of death in Quebec in contrast with the rest of Canada.
7) During this pandemic, #COVID deaths have followed hospitalizations — something one would expect. So although the latest increases in hospitalizations are now trending downward, one could expect the number of deaths to remain high in the coming days.
8) One final observation. It appears that Quebec is catching up to the United States in its latest seven-day average of COVID deaths per million population. On Jan. 12, Quebec’s average stood at 4 per million population, compared with 5.2 for the U.S.
9) As the INSPQ chart below shows, Quebec’s seven-day average of #COVID deaths has climbed to 4.6 per million population, while the seven-day average in the U.S. has dipped to 5. However, please note the INSPQ urges prudence in making such comparisons. End of thread.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
