Oliver Meier Profile picture
Jan 27 8 tweets 7 min read
1/ @NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg describes content of letter to Russia with "proposals, ideas, topics" where allies agree "it is possible to make progress" including on "risk reduction, transparency, and #armscontrol". Short attempt to unpack: is.gd/Nmj0if
2/ NATO usefully suggests "mutual briefings on exercises and nuclear policies in the NATO-Russia Council". Lots of experience to build on, see for example 2014 @SWPBerlin papers by @KatarzynaKubiak (tinyurl.com/y8zdn8gg) and Max Mutschler here tinyurl.com/yce7yrw9 (.pdf)
3/ @Stoltenberg repeats proposal to modernise #ViennaDocument on "military transparency". For novel ideas see @deepcutsproject paper by @OlyaOliker @steven_pifer and W. Zellner "A Fresh Approach to Conventional Arms Control in Europe" is.gd/YAfsbQ
4/ Maybe not such a good idea: @NATO suggestion to bring "compliance with international commitments on chemical and biological weapons" into the mix. Very, very important but - dare I say? - toxic issue, as @DrAlexKelle and I have described thebulletin.org/?p=91556
5/ Core of discussion in NRC should be "meaningful dialogue" on ground-based intermediate and shorter range missiles. Read great @deepcutsproject paper by @russianforces with possible steps on "Nuclear Weapons in Europe after the INF Treaty" here is.gd/M2y9sM
6/ Division of labour between NATO-Russia Council and US-Russia Strategic Stability Dialogue will be crucial. @YoungDeepCuts team proposes integrated approach to revitalizing US-Russia #armscontrol here (and read other papers too is.gd/iYzBpl)
7/ @jensstoltenberg argues that @NATO wants to talk with Russia about "practical measures that will make a real difference". Joint @deepcutsproject statement outlines "How the US-Russian Strategic Stability Dialogue Can and Must Make Progress" here: tinyurl.com/ybwu5c2a
8/8 So: @NATO letter appears to describe useful starting points for talks on arms control, risk reduction, transparency. Breaking agenda down in digestable portions, placing them in appropriate setting and avoiding counterproductive linkages will be key to success.

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More from @meier_oliver

Nov 7, 2021
1/ Crunch time on @NATO nuclear sharing discussions in talks on new German government. Short thread on debate, picking up couple of contentious points in this interesting but one-sided @derspiegel analysis: tinyurl.com/yeabnsxk
2/ Terms of debate have recently shifted because @usairforce has announced end of production of F18
3/ A need to reassess: F18 was preferred option of outgoing Defense Minister @akk German Ministry @BMVg_Bundeswehr to replace nuclear-capable Tornado. Airforce liked electronic warfighting capabilities of F18 Growler.
Read 9 tweets
May 2, 2020
1/ German debate on @NATO nuclear sharing is picking up speed: Rolf Mützenich, chairman of coalition partner Social Democrats @spdbt in Parliament in @Tagesspiegel interview tomorrow apparntly calls for future end of #nuclearweapons deployments in Germany is.gd/EFCfLb
2/ Mützenich argues that other @NATO allies participate in nuclear sharing even though they have renounced option to host US nuclear weapons. (To be precise: 21 of 30 NATO allies participate in Nuclear Planning Group even though their territory is free of #nuclearweapons.)
3/ Also points to unilateralism of US administration and argues "Does any believe that @realDonaldTrump would stop planning for #nuclearweapons use just because we are able to transport a few warheads?"
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14, 2020
Thread: This E3 statement is indicative of concerns Europeans have about triggering #DisputeResolutionMechanism. Several smart people including @EllieGeranmayeh @diplocharlie @AliVaez have commented on politics, risks & opportunities. A few comments here on DRM procedure.
2/The statement has been complemented by a statement of @JosepBorrellF confirming receipt of E3 letter and confirming his role as Joint Commission Chairman. This is interesting because EU/@eu_eeas at the same time can be independent #JCPOA participant.
3/ Here is my crude overview of DRM proceedings, produced for @IFSHHamburg briefing
Read 7 tweets

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