1/ On the "energy transition" and geoeconomics:
My experience, including e.g. lobbying for #electrification of #transport before it was cool, is that govts prefer the path of least resistance, which helps the incumbent #oil and #gas industry.
My experience, including e.g. lobbying for #electrification of #transport before it was cool, is that govts prefer the path of least resistance, which helps the incumbent #oil and #gas industry.
https://twitter.com/edwardfishman/status/1486763457806581766
2/ So what you get is a compromise of #green policy goals (lower CO2, but not too fast, plus nuclear exit), slow-exiting of #oil and increase in #gas (good for incumbent industry), promotion of #hydrogen (helps gas industry survive), and of course #Russia.
3/ Liberal economic principles, and foreign policy idealism, are brought in just in time to prevent heavy geoeconomic measures to cut dependence on Russia. And so, Europe will do a slow energy transition with Russia guaranteed major benefits for the next few decades.
4/ Of course another path is possible: massive acceleration of electrification of transport, increase nuclear, increase RES, and slap a big import tariff on Russian energy. We could break free if we wanted to. But it's fundamentally a political decision. END.
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