"Hi Alex. I have #COVID19 infection. Should I try to get Paxlovid? What is it? Will it help me?"
Short answer: YES, you should.
BUT, there's LOT of things to know about it, and your eligibility for it will depend on where you live + many other things, too.
Explainer 🧵. /1
Paxlovid's generic name is nermatrelvir/ritonavir. It's a combination of 3 pills taken twice daily for 5 days.
Nermatrelvir is a "protease inhibitor". It works by blocking an enzyme ("protease") that the virus needs to manufacture new copies of itself. /2
In this situation, Ritonavir acts as what we call a "booster drug".
It inactivates an enzyme in our bodies called CYP3A4 that plays an important role in metabolizing and removing many medications from our bodies.
This allows nermatrelvir to exist longer in our bodies. /3
Ritonavir has inherent anti-viral properties. It's also a protease inhibitor. But in this situation, it's primary function is to "boost" the levels of nermatrelvir in our bodies so that viral replication can be slowed down. /4
The key clinical trial showing efficacy of Paxlovid is EPIC-HR.
In it, 2246 outpatients w/ COVID-19 infection were randomized to receive either Paxlovid or placebo for 5 days.
Persons were unvaccinated w/ risk factors for severe infection, & within 5 days of symptom onset. /5
The primary end point of the study was hospitalization or death at day 28 of the study.
The group who received treatment had an ~89% reduction in hospitalization & death compared to the placebo group. /6
All 12 deaths in EPIC-HR occurred in the placebo arms.
No significant increase in drug-related adverse effects was seen for persons taking Paxlovid versus placebo.
Unfortunately, complete results remain unavailable for review via pre-print or peer-reviewed publication. /7
A 2nd study, EPIC-SR, included 991 outpatients (either unvaccinated OR vaccinated with 1+risk factors for severe infection).
Interim analysis via press release showed persons who received Paxlovid had a 1.7% absolute reduction in hospitalization vs placebo (0.7% vs 2.4%). /8
This absolute reduction in hospitalization via interim analysis in EPIC-SR was NOT statistically significant.
No deaths were reported in the interim analysis.
Here's the press release, for reference. Again, no published data exists yet. /9
Paxlovid should be administered AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE following COVID-19 diagnosis, and within 5 days of symptom onset.
This is a critical point. Don't wait to find out whether you're eligible. Call immediately! /10
Paxlovid has the potential for drug-drug interactions, because of how CYP3A4 is affected in your body. Pharmacist review is highly recommended.
Common interactions include blood thinners like warfarin, certain seizure medications, statins, HIV & TB medications, etc. /11
I've attached the eligibility criteria for *Saskatchewan* below. You MUST be within 5 days of symptom onset.
Different criteria for those fully vaccinated (2 doses) vs. not.
If you're fully vaccinated, you're only eligible if you are immunocompromised - see criteria. /12
There are also clinical criteria here in Saskatchewan that exclude you from receiving Paxlovid.
Key ones: previous #COVID19 infection, need for hospitalization, active liver disease, severe kidney disease, pregnant or breastfeeding.
See full list below. /13
Here's a nice summary of how you access Paxlovid in Saskatchewan. Most people will either call their doctor OR 811. There's a standard referral form that's completed, and you go from there.
If you're not eligible for Paxlovid, you may be eligible for sotrovimab (IV therapy). /14
In summary, if you're NOT fully vaccinated OR if you're fully vaccinated WITH certain high-risk conditions, Paxlovid CAN help to keep you from getting sicker and needing hospital/ICU.
Please call 811 or your doctor ASAP after you test positive via RAT/PCR.
Yesterday, Premier Moe said #COVID19 cases in Saskatchewan are more frequent in the vaccinated vs. those who aren't.
THUS, vaccines DON'T prevent infection with or transmission of Omicron.
The Premier's conclusions are INCORRECT. But why?
It's complicated. Here we go.
🧵 /1
The Premier's incorrect conclusion stems from a simplistic interpretation of the data. 'Base rate fallacy' is one problem, but there are MANY other factors at play.
We explained 'base rate fallacy' with cases & vax status back in August. See below. /2
For 'base rate fallacy' & #COVID19 & hospitalizations, this is the diagram EVERYONE uses (thx @MarcRummy).
MANY more people are fully vaccinated now, so even though a small proportion of them go to hospital, the absolute numbers are the same as those unvaccinated. See below. /3
On January 18, @PremierScottMoe posted a graphic comparing "real-time" QC / ON / MB hospitalizations / ICU admissions vs. SK.
Problem: SK is ~3 weeks behind those provinces w/ our Omicron surge.
We MUST be careful interpreting this data. We're NOT OK, Saskatchewan.
🧵👇 (1/n)
A more reasonable and appropriate comparison would be to look at where MB/QC/ON were at ~3 weeks from Jan 18 to create a more fair "apples vs apples" graphic.
For those 3 provinces, that would take us to about Dec 28. Let's see what the data shows us. (2/n)
We have #QC data from Dec 28 & Jan 18 in the graphics below courtesy @sante_qc:
Dec 28: 804 in hospital (including ICU), 128 in ICU
Jan 18: 3425 in hospital (including ICU), 285 in ICU
"Hi Alex, I have 2 doses of vaccine & JUST recovered from COVID. I'm eligible for a 3rd dose. When should I get it?"
Great Q. You assuredly had Omicron, so while you're eligible to get your booster 'right away', I'd personally wait at least 6-8 weeks. Why?
Short 🧵 👇 (1/n)
First, getting a 3rd dose even AFTER you've recovered from Omicron makes sense. You're further bolstering your immune response from whatever the 'next' variant will be. *Big sigh.*
Better for your immune system to be ready for whatever this pandemic throws at it next. (2/n)
Second, DON'T get a booster dose when you're symptomatic.
You're putting persons at risk of exposure to Omicron, and your immune response to vaccine WON'T be as good as when you've fully recovered and your immune system has had a chance to calm down. (3/n)
- Measures implemented to SIGNIFICANTLY reduce social mixing, MAYBE we avoid disaster/triage in #SK hospitals.
- Do NOTHING, #SK hospitals crushed, triage ensues.
Get comfy - here we go.
(1/25)
Let's begin with history.
@SKGov was provided w/ models from WORLD-CLASS #SK modeler Dr. Nate Osgood in late August 2021 that predicted EXACTLY how #SK ICUs would be overwhelmed w/ Delta in Fall 2021.