Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/4 - France (R-eff=0.98) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 313,048 cases and 314 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 06, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Jan 31 to Feb 03:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/4 - Seven mainland Régions are either
- Close to their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.03);
Bretagne=1.09;
Ctre-Val-Loire=1.08;
[Corse=1.0];
Normandy=1.09;
[PACA=1.06];
- Landing to its safety zone:
Ile-de-France=0.82, very high mortality.

3/4 - Six mainland Régions still rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with [very] high mortality:
[Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.11)];
Grand-Est=1.12:
Hauts-de-France=1.10;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.17;
[Occitanie=1.12;]
Pays-de-Loire=1.14.

4/4 – Overseas Régions are experiencing high #COVID19 epidemic activity:
- Rise in Réunion (R-eff=1.09), with very high mortality;
- Has reached its peak in Martinique=0.95, medium mortality;
- Landing in Guadeloupe=0.72;Guyane=0.50, very high mortality.
Safe in Mayotte=0.31.

5/4 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

A few definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K pop/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activ < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

6/4 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0