Thread by @FLAHAULT

1/9 - Jan 31 to Feb 06 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience

2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Improving, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.61); FL=0.76;/UK=0.93;SP=0.91;[IT=0.89];
- Peak or plateau, high mort: ICL;FR;[GR];
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: PT; DK=1.19;SE;BE;
. Med-low mort: AT; NO; NL; CH; DE; LUX.

3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region is surging in its #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.11; Croat=1.08; [Czech=1.26; Eston=1.32; Hung=1.21; Latv=1.31;Lith=1.30; Pol=1.33; Romn=1.33; Russia=1.36;Serb=1.08; Slovk=1.47; Slovn=1.24;Ukr=1.39].

4/9 - Africa -
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging in Libya (R-eff=1.36);
- Increasing in Tunisia=1.04; high mortality;
- Slow landing in ; Gabon=0.93; Botswana=0.93;
- Improving elsewhere, e.g. Morocco=0.72, however in [Namibia] and South Africa=0.99, with high mortality.

5/9 - Middle-East
Two profiles in #COVID19 cases, with medium to high mortality:
- Deteriorating in:
Iran (R-eff=1.48); Iraq=1.22; Israel=1.18 (78.5% received 1 dose); Jordan=1.32; Kuwait=1.1; Lebanon=1.15; Oman=1.29;
- [Slow] landing in:
Qatar=0.72; Saudi-Arabia=0.90;[UAE=0.92].

6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Malaysia (R-eff=1.17); with low mortality.
- Plateauing in Mongolia=1.08;Kazakhstan=0.93; Thailand=0.94; [Vietnam=0.97], with low [medium] mortality;
- Landing in [Philippines]; Laos, with low [medium] mortality.

7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rapid/worrying surge in #COVID19 epid activ, very low mortality:
Japan (R-eff=1.36); South Korea=1.45;Nepal=1.12; Pakistan=1.20;
- Plateauing in India=1.03;
- Landing in Australia, with high mortality;
- Safe in: NZ=1.38; China=1.11;Taiwan=1.05.

8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.90) is landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, high mortality, 86.4% 1 dose. Orange (R-eff<0.90) in QC, MA, Alberta, NS, YK, red elsewhere;
- USA=0.84 (75.8%) are landing, with very high mortality, red in 22 states, orange in 28.

9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, [very] high mort, three profiles:
- Surging-rising: Brazil (R-eff=1.23); Chile=1.38; [Peru=1.17;];
- Plateauing: Cuba=0.96; [Uruguay=1.01]
- (Slow) landing: (Mexico=0.93); [Argentina; Bolivia; Colombia]

10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...

11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0