Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Jan 31 11 tweets 8 min read
1/9 - Jan 31 to Feb 06 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Improving, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.61); FL=0.76;/UK=0.93;SP=0.91;[IT=0.89];
- Peak or plateau, high mort: ICL;FR;[GR];
- Deteriorating:
. High mort: PT; DK=1.19;SE;BE;
. Med-low mort: AT; NO; NL; CH; DE; LUX.
3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region is surging in its #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.11; Croat=1.08; [Czech=1.26; Eston=1.32; Hung=1.21; Latv=1.31;Lith=1.30; Pol=1.33; Romn=1.33; Russia=1.36;Serb=1.08; Slovk=1.47; Slovn=1.24;Ukr=1.39].
4/9 - Africa -
Three #COVID19 profiles:
- Surging in Libya (R-eff=1.36);
- Increasing in Tunisia=1.04; high mortality;
- Slow landing in ; Gabon=0.93; Botswana=0.93;
- Improving elsewhere, e.g. Morocco=0.72, however in [Namibia] and South Africa=0.99, with high mortality.
5/9 - Middle-East
Two profiles in #COVID19 cases, with medium to high mortality:
- Deteriorating in:
Iran (R-eff=1.48); Iraq=1.22; Israel=1.18 (78.5% received 1 dose); Jordan=1.32; Kuwait=1.1; Lebanon=1.15; Oman=1.29;
- [Slow] landing in:
Qatar=0.72; Saudi-Arabia=0.90;[UAE=0.92].
6/9 - Asia & Pacific
- Rising in #COVID19 epidemic activity: Malaysia (R-eff=1.17); with low mortality.
- Plateauing in Mongolia=1.08;Kazakhstan=0.93; Thailand=0.94; [Vietnam=0.97], with low [medium] mortality;
- Landing in [Philippines]; Laos, with low [medium] mortality.
7/9 - Asia & Pacific (cont'd)
- Rapid/worrying surge in #COVID19 epid activ, very low mortality:
Japan (R-eff=1.36); South Korea=1.45;Nepal=1.12; Pakistan=1.20;
- Plateauing in India=1.03;
- Landing in Australia, with high mortality;
- Safe in: NZ=1.38; China=1.11;Taiwan=1.05.
8/9 - North America -
- Canada (R-eff=0.90) is landing towards its #COVID19 safe zone, high mortality, 86.4% 1 dose. Orange (R-eff<0.90) in QC, MA, Alberta, NS, YK, red elsewhere;
- USA=0.84 (75.8%) are landing, with very high mortality, red in 22 states, orange in 28.
9/9 - Latin America -
The sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, [very] high mort, three profiles:
- Surging-rising: Brazil (R-eff=1.23); Chile=1.38; [Peru=1.17;];
- Plateauing: Cuba=0.96; [Uruguay=1.01]
- (Slow) landing: (Mexico=0.93); [Argentina; Bolivia; Colombia]
10/9 -
Read forecasting for other countries by following
@KristenN_06
@elisa_manetti
@AdelineDugerdil

Definitions:
Safety zone: nb of forecast cases < 30/100K population/week
30 < Medium level of epidemic activity < 140 cases/week
140 < High level < 700
Very high level > 700...
11/9 -
... Definitions (cont'd):
Very low mortality: nb of forecast deaths/d < 0.05/100K pop
0.05 < Low mortality < 0.10
0.10 < Medium mortality < 0.20
0.20 < High mortality < 0.50
Very high mortality > 0.50
Alarming mortality > 1.0
Very alarming mortality > 3.0

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More from @FLAHAULT

Feb 1
1/9 - Feb 01 to Feb 07 -
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!

Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:
tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb

Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience Image
2/9 - Western Europe
Three profiles in #COVID19:
- Improving, medium/[very] high mortality: IRL (R-eff=0.72);FL=0.81;/SP=0.86;[IT=0.88];
- Plateau, [low] high (alarming) mort: [ICL;CH];UK=0.95;LUX;FR;(GR);
- Deteriorating:
. High mort:PT;DK=1.07;SE;BE;AT;
. Med-low mort:NO;NL;DE. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 - East-Central Europe
The whole sub-region experiences high #COVID19 epid activ, with alarming [high] mort:
Bulg=1.07; Croat=1.05; [Czech=1.27; Eston=1.25; Hung=1.15; Latv=1.26;Lith=1.22; Pol=1.27; Romn=1.28; Russia=1.38;Serb=1.06; Slovk=1.40; Slovn=1.22;Ukr=1.33]. ImageImageImage
Read 11 tweets
Feb 1
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.0) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 331,615 cases and 304 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 07, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Feb 01 to Feb 04:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 - Eight mainland Régions are:
- Close to their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
Bretg (R-eff=1.07);
Ctre-Val-L=1.05;
[Corse=0.97];
Hts-de-Fr=1.08;
Normd=1.04;
[PACA=1.02];
- Landing to their safe zones, [very] high mort:
AURA=0.94;
[Ile-de-Fr=0.81]. ImageImageImageImage
3/4 - Five mainland Régions are still rising in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with [very] high mortality:
[Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.10)];
Grand-Est=1.11:
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.14;
[Occitanie=1.11;]
Pays-de-Loire=1.12. ImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Jan 31
1/16 - “After the World Health Organization’s regional chief for Europe expressed hope last weekend that the continent could be moving to a “pandemic endgame”, his WHO superiors moved quickly to play down such optimism.”
ft.com/content/037a3a…
2/16 - “Director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus clarified Hans Kluge’s remarks the following day by insisting it was “dangerous to assume . . . we’re in the endgame” of coronavirus while WHO Europe stressed that the “pandemic is not over yet”.
3/16 - “The confused messaging cuts to the heart of a debate that was bubbling even before the #Omicron variant sparked a global infection surge: at what point does the world move on from the pandemic?”
Read 16 tweets
Jan 31
1/4 - France (R-eff=0.98) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 313,048 cases and 314 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 06, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Jan 31 to Feb 03:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Seven mainland Régions are either
- Close to their peak in #COVID19 new cases, with [very] high mortality:
AURA (R-eff=1.03);
Bretagne=1.09;
Ctre-Val-Loire=1.08;
[Corse=1.0];
Normandy=1.09;
[PACA=1.06];
- Landing to its safety zone:
Ile-de-France=0.82, very high mortality.
3/4 - Six mainland Régions still rise in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with [very] high mortality:
[Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.11)];
Grand-Est=1.12:
Hauts-de-France=1.10;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.17;
[Occitanie=1.12;]
Pays-de-Loire=1.14.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 31
1/4 - France (R-eff=1.0) has reached the peak of its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with 341,049 cases and 313 deaths/day foreseen by Feb 05, if at same pace.
80.2% received 1 dose;
Regional forecast Jan 30 to Feb 02:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
By @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 - Three mainland Régions are either
- Close to their peak in #COVID19 new cases:
AURA (R-eff=1.04); [PACA=1.07; Corse=1.01, with [very] high mortality; or
- Landing towards its safety zone:
Ile-de-France=0.83, with very high levels of mortality.
3/4 - Ten mainland Régions still rise or surge in #COVID19 cases, with:
- High mortality:
Bourgogne-Franche-Comté (R-eff=1.15);
Bretagne=1.13;
Centre-Val-Loire=1.11;
Grand-Est=1.13:
Hauts-de-France=1.11;
Normandie=1.11;
Nouvelle-Aquitaine=1.18;
Occitanie=1.13;
Pays-de-Loire=1.15.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 30
1/7 - “Areas in three neighbourhoods of Beijing’s Fengtai district were designated “controlled areas”, with residents required to undergo daily #COVID19 testing and prohibited from leaving their residential complexes.”
ft.com/content/e30e36…
2/7 - “The local organising committee has admitted that some cases would probably be imported, given the number of overseas athletes, media and officials due to arrive in the city. But authorities will mitigate the risk of contagion by creating a “closed loop” for the Olympics.”
3/7 - “China reported that 25 new local cases and 23 infections were recorded within the Olympic bubble on Thurs, highlighting the challenge authorities face to maintain Beijing’s #ZeroCovid policy.
#Omicron is proving to be a lot more difficult in terms of its transmissibility.”
Read 7 tweets

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