1/8 THREAD While an English version of my latest piece about Russia-Ukraine-the West is getting ready, here are several points from there. The Russian version was published here carnegie.ru/commentary/862…
2/8 The many months of speculation of an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine are in sharp contrast to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s usual method of a swift, covert, and unexpected special operation.
3/8 It looks, therefore, as though Russia wanted to use Western fears over Ukraine’s security to achieve its broader aims.
4/8 As those fears grew, so did Russia’s ambitions. Now, with tensions reaching boiling point and the world watching, it’s hard for either side to back down.
5/8 But it’s also hard to keep an army mobilized and in field conditions indefinitely. The threat of the use of force is very effective in the short term, but loses value the longer it is drawn out. This explains the deadlines set by Russia in its negotiations with the West.
6/8 If the West steps out of rhythm with Russia and stops reacting within the given timeframe, Moscow will have to take action to show that it is serious or run the risk of not being listened to next time. now by foreign observers.
7/8 It looks like Russia is indeed prepared to take action, even if it is not necessarily the action anticipated right
8/8 Consequently, as for now Russia can take advantage of Western fears of war without actually using force.
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