THREAD 1/13 Moscow’s goal is clear: it wants the world to listen to it and to realize that the country speaking is not the same as the one that once lost the Cold War. Russia has a new confidence that has inspired it to revert to the language of the Soviet superpower.
2/13 That confidence springs from several sources. The first is Russia’s modernized army and new weapons. Judging by some of Putin’s statements, he is confident that Russia has a temporary technological advantage in some types of weapons, and that the West knows it.
3/13 Secondly, modern Russia is not the Soviet Union, and as for now did not lose anything to anyone. bit.ly/3gkhMLT
4/13 Finally, the Soviet Union might have had its own military bloc behind it in the form of its Warsaw Pact allies, but Russia likely feels stronger than the Soviet Union, thanks to its partnership with modern China.
5/13 China is also an alternative market and supplier, including of high-tech goods. These are all things that Russia lacked both during the Cold War and in the turbulent 1990s. There are several other reasons.
6/13 All else being equal, Russia is prepared to pay more to keep Ukraine from going over to the West than people in the West are prepared to pay to bring Ukraine over to their side. bit.ly/3gkhMLT
.
.
7/13 In its negotiations with the West, Russia is behaving not like a country preparing to wage war, but like a country that, if necessary, can afford to do so.
8/13 The Kremlin is often crystal clear about its intentions, and highly evasive on the means to be used. bit.ly/3gkhMLT
9/13 Its aim of stopping NATO expansion, above all into Ukraine, is genuine. How that aim will be achieved depends on how circumstances develop.
10/13 Russian diplomats and ministers have made no secret of the fact that they are carrying out the orders of the commander in chief, Putin. What they haven’t clarified is what will happen if those orders are not carried out. bit.ly/3gkhMLT
11/13 The aim of the West, on the other hand, is to avoid war. Consequently, Russia can exploit Western fears of war—without actually using force
12/13 For the West, the security problems it has created for Russia didn’t even exist until very recently. One important consequence of Russia’s actions is that the West has been forced, albeit unwillingly and cautiously, to recognize that there is even anything to discuss.
13/13 These are several points of my latest piece for Carngie.ru, that is now available in English carnegiemoscow.org/commentary/863…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
