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Alexander Baunov Profile picture
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21 Dec, 7 tweets, 3 min read
1/7 The Russian authorities do acknowledge some victims of past repression… The real issue is the rivalry over memory, which the Kremlin would like to monopolize.
My piece about trial of the Memorial foreignpolicy.com/2021/12/20/rus…
2/7 Memorial’s problem is not that commemorating these crimes is taboo, but that it is competing with the Kremlin in an area of history that the Kremlin considers its own. Even Putin has written several articles about this part of Soviet history. bit.ly/33NhzOu
3/7 And while Memorial exposes the perpetrators, today’s Russian state prefers silence, lest ordinary people think the Soviet security services’ successor agencies are capable of similar injustices. bit.ly/33NhzOu
4/7 Too much light on past repression, the Kremlin fears, could lead Russians to question the government’s present-day activities.bit.ly/33NhzOu
5/7 Even bigger thorns in the Kremlin’s eye are some of Memorial’s activities other than commemorating the victims of Stalin-era repression and fighting for archive access.bit.ly/33NhzOu
6/7 The Memorial Human Rights Center compiles a list of modern political prisoners in Russia, with the clear implication that Russia’s days of political repression are not over bit.ly/33NhzOu
7/7 Proceedings are taking place shortly before the New Year, a time when many Russians are not paying much attention to the news. Soviet dissidents were often sentenced at this time of year. In this sense, at least, Russia has come full circle bit.ly/33NhzOu.

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More from @baunov

Alexander Baunov Profile picture
20 Dec
THREAD 1/15 #Russia’s Foreign Ministry has taken the unusual step of publicly releasing a draft treaty it has sent to #Washington outlining its demands for deescalating tensions, including over Ukraine. The ministry says it wants to begin negotiations without delay.
2/15 The agreement outlines the concessions to be made by Washington, but does not indicate what concessions Russia is prepared to make. Yet the difference between diplomacy and a military victory is that in diplomacy, everyone makes concessions.
3/15 With rare exceptions, diplomacy is not a rushed affair. If tight deadlines are issued, it means one side wants to take action; if tough conditions are laid down — even more so. Or it means that one side is certain that the other has no other options.
Read 15 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
7 Dec
1/16 THREAD: The goal of #Putin at today’s virtual summit with #Biden on #Ukraine is to transfer responsibility for implementing the Minsk agreements from the Europeans and Ukraine to the US.
2/16 To make Biden accept this responsibility, military drills are taking place close to Ukraine’s borders, and Russian troops are massing there enough to launch an offensive. The signal is clear: if the Minsk agreements aren’t being implemented, the alternative is military force
3/16 Peskov’s comments that the Normandy format for talks (Ukraine, Russia, France & Germany) is sufficient & doesn’t require a US presence actually mean Moscow doesn’t see the need for Europe in any serious conversation on Ukraine, & would like to deal directly with Washington.
Read 15 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
20 Sep
THREAD 1/12 Fluctuations in the election results are down to Russia being a federation: you get different pictures by looking at the Far East, Siberia & the Urals, European Russia, & the south. Still, even allowing for manipulation of the results, some broad trends are visible.
2/12 Overall, the system is in defensive mode. Putin’s position is that Russia needs some decades of calm, and then there can be change. Russia is defending its sovereignty, and the current system of four patriotic parties has proven reliable.
3/12 The loss of one of those parties, or its replacement by another, untested one would put stress on the system. So any innovation must be made within the current system.
Read 12 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
29 Jul
1/10 n fact, the agreement, which at first glance appears to be to Russia’s advantage, is—in its own way—beneficial to all parties. My take of the #NordStream-2 deal carnegie.ru/commentary/850…
2/10 Given Germany’s determination to get the pipeline completed, and Russia’s ability to do so, the agreement has given Russia the chance to do just that without coming under additional pressure, while allowing Germany to do it with the U.S. blessing rather than going against it
3/10 The Biden administration, faced with a done deal, managed at the last minute not to be left standing on the sidelines, but to step up as a friend to some of its allies and a guarantor of the interests of others bit.ly/2VjXuec
Read 10 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
18 Jun
1/8 When Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the summit with U.S. President Joe Biden in Geneva this week, he was representing a new Russia. My take of the Geneva summit in a broader context carnegie.ru/commentary/848…
2/8 The new Russia is no longer developing by building Western institutions. Russia will no longer be evaluated according to external criteria. This is why plans for the summit had no impact on the regime’s treatment of the opposition or independent media bit.ly/3q56gs1
3/8 All of Biden’s attempts to shame Putin for the tribulations of Russian opposition were stonewalled with a lack of understanding and counter-accusations. For Putin, there is no longer a system of coordinates in which those reproaches carry any weight.bit.ly/3q56gs1
Read 8 tweets
Alexander Baunov Profile picture
31 May
THREAD 1/ The police officers who planted drugs on the investigative journalist Ivan #Golunov back in 2019 have been sentenced to 5-12 years in prison and ordered to pay Golunov compensation of 5 million rubles ($68,000). The severity of their sentences is important.
2/ We live in a society that believes that someone who was framed by the security services is lucky that they backed down. People say, “You’re lucky they didn’t put you in jail,” and see that in itself as a victory for the victim and punishment for the perpetrators.
3/ Unfortunately, the security services also think like this: that it’s punishment enough that their operation to frame an innocent person failed, and that person has been amply rewarded by getting off lightly.
Read 5 tweets

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