THREAD 1/6 Karim #Masimov, the head of the main security service in #Kazakhstan and a close ally of former president #Nazarbayev, has not just been fired, but arrested too. Masimov was largely seen as Nazarbayev’s main overseer in the team of his successor, President #Tokayev. 
2/6 It looks increasingly likely that Masimov & his men will be accused of inciting—or even organizing—riots, & that along with a government crackdown on protesters, an internal coup is underway, liberating Tokayev from the guardianship of Nazarbayev, his family & associates.
3/6 The model of power transition used in Kazakhstan—appointing a successor while retaining enormous influence—was always under consideration in the Kremlin as an option for how Vladimir Putin could hand over the reins when the time comes. Now it has failed before Putin’s eyes.
4/6 Putin may not like this turn of events, and not just because a possible option for him is now closing. He had excellent working and personal relationships with both Nazarbayev and Masimov, who was the Kazakh prime minister when Putin held that title in Russia in 2008-2012.
5/6 In addition, accusations of the security services working against the state are in direct contradiction of the current Russian practices.
6/6 By inviting Russian (CSTO) troops to Kazakhstan, President Tokayev isn’t just getting valuable reinforcements. He’s reassuring Putin that the attack on his former allies there doesn’t mean a change in political direction. On the contrary, Kazakhstan & Russia will get closer.
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