1) At least two countries in the Northern Hemisphere – Ireland and Denmark – have started lifting #pandemic restrictions despite the more contagious #Omicron variant and the fact deaths are still rising in the latter. In this thread, I will examine the risks of lockdown fatigue. 
2) First, though, let us focus on Quebec's latest #COVID death wave, which is stubbornly resisting to subside. In fact, the current wave has surpassed the wave last January, when Quebec still had a curfew in effect at this point in 2021. Please take a look at the chart below.
3) The Quebec government is wary to discuss this, but I submit it must be held accountable on this score. Most deaths are now occurring among Quebecers who were at least 70, who had been living at home, many of whom did not get their booster doses in time.
https://twitter.com/Aaron_Derfel/status/1486226732155817990
4) As for #COVID hospitalizations, this fifth wave also has surpassed the one last January. During the peak last January, 1,525 Quebecers were #COVID hospitalized, 230 in the ICU. That compares with the current peak of 3,425 hospitalizations, 285 in the ICU. Please see below.
5) It’s under these circumstances that Quebec’s health-care system collapsed in the fifth wave of #COVID infections amid record absenteeism among burned-out health care workers. So why is Quebec now so keen to lift restrictions? montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
6) The first obvious answer is lockdown fatigue among the general population in an election year in Quebec. Some of the protesters causing mayhem in Ottawa are from Quebec. “It’s a small minority but perhaps we should reach out to them,” Legault suggested diplomatically Sunday.
7) Mindful of the potential political cost, Legault – already in pre-electoral campaign mode – appears to have scrapped his proposed anti-vax tax, with the Ottawa protesters already claiming credit. But are there other reasons to lift restrictions so swiftly?
8) Not really. At least 45% of the population has received a third dose, still too low to counter the Omicron variant, plus the more contagious BA.2 “stealth” strain. The government is also citing declining hospitalizations – clearly a reassuring sign.
9) But Quebec’s health-care system has collapsed and needs much more time to recover. Authorities have still not assessed the impact of the return of students to poorly ventilated schools. And the stealth BA.2 variant is likely spreading fast.
10) In contrast, Denmark’s health-care system is more robust than Quebec’s and its ICU stays are dropping more markedly than in Quebec. What’s more, 67.2% of the Danish population has received a booster, much higher than in Quebec.
11) As for Ireland, its #COVID deaths, hospitalizations and ICU stays are all trending downward, something that has not happened yet in Quebec on the mortality front. Ireland also has the second highest uptake in Europe of vaccine boosters, 65%, after – you guessed it, Denmark.
12) Still, Denmark and Ireland are taking risks in their decisions to lift restrictions. Evidently, Quebec would be ill-advised to follow their examples now, based purely on the science of public health. Politics, however, are another matter. End of thread. Go get your shot.
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