1) Dr. Jordan Peterson (@jordanbpeterson), one of Canada’s preeminent intellectuals, cited a meta-analysis on Tuesday concluding that the average #COVID lockdown resulted in only a 0.2% reduction in mortality in Europe and in the U.S. Is that really true? 
2) Given Peterson’s huge audience and his commitment to scientific rigour, it is worth stress-testing this meta-analysis that has appeared in Studies in Applied Economics. That would be part of the scientific method of open and fact-based debate.
3) It’s in that scientific tradition that I would like to report the reaction of various British scientists to this meta-analysis. Courtesy of sciencemediacentre.org, this is what Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, had to say:
4) “This report on the effect of ‘lockdowns’ does not significantly advance our understanding of the relative effectiveness of the plethora of public health measures adopted by different countries to limit COVID-19 transmission,” Ferguson comments.
5) “First, the policies which comprised ‘lockdown’ varied dramatically between countries, meaning defining the term is problematic.” Added Ferguson: “A second and more important issue is that the statistical methods used to estimate the impact…need to be appropriate."
6) This is what Dr. Seth Flaxman, associate professor in the department of computer science at University of Oxford, had to say: “A trio of economists have undertaken a meta-analysis of many previous studies. So far so good.”
7) “But they systematically excluded from consideration any study based on the science of disease transmission, meaning that the only studies looked at in the analysis are studies using the methods of economics,” Flaxman noted. sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reactio…
8) This is what Samir Bhatt, professor of statistics and public health at London's Imperial College, said: “I find this paper has flaws and needs to be interpreted very carefully.” What about an economist's opinion, which is the field of study of the authors of the meta-analysis?
9) This is what David Paton, chair of industrial economics at Nottingham University Business School, had to say: “I would query their inclusion of mortality effects which are observed very soon after the interventions.”
10) This meta-analysis got lots of play in newspapers and on TV at a time when governments around the world are under tremendous pressure to lift restrictions despite the latest wave of #COVID deaths. The news media would be wise to follow up on it contextually. End of thread.
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