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Feb 6 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
2/5 Texas C19 Update - Cliff Diving

* Declines only steeping statewide
* Covid Hospital admissions plunge
* Record rates of declines everywhere
* Should be a nice spring!

THREAD

1/n
2/5 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/26:

* We see the start of the plunge across testing, positivity rate & positive tests
* This manifests in today's case & hospitalization numbers

2/n
 .
2/5 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

* Cases 7DMA @ 21K after a huge drop week over week.
Only 12K cases reported today.
* 7DMA rate of week over week decline sets new record of 38%. Now mid 30%s for the past 7 days
* #plummeting

3/n
 .
2/5 - Hospitalizations

* Covid Admissions in free fall, 7DMA down 20% week over week (WoW) & still accelerating. Huge drop today.
* Covid General Census 7DMA following suit, down 10.5% WoW. Bottom about to fall out.
* Covid % of total beds down to 16.86%

4/n
 .
2/5 Severe Hospitalizations

* 1st chart shows Cases vs hospitalizations since 8/2020. This wave was a severe casedemic
* 2nd chart focuses on hospitalizations. Winter 2021 will be by far be the least severe wave of the four
* 3rd & 4th - 2020 Winter side by sides

5/n
2/5 - Conclusion

* Rapidly approaching end of winter wave
* Might see single 1000s tomorrow for reported cases. Thought it would be next week, but its collapsing fast
*Last of the TSA regions are peaking, will soon combine w/ the rest of the state & hospitalizations will plummet

• • •

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 7
2/6 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Update to last weeks analysis of C19:
* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

1/n
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* We'll start with a view of all metrics, including Cases
* 2021 Winter Wave cases declining rapidly from their peak - 280% higher than the previous C19 record
* However, C19 hospital census peaked at only 95% of the previous record

2/n Image
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics:

* Left axis = hospital census
* Right axis = everything else
* ICU peaked at 72% of the previous record
* Vents peaked at 52% of the previous record
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/1, projected thru 1/15

3/n Image
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 31
1/30 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Now that we are on the backside of this wave, we can start to focus on severe outcomes and comparisons to previous waves. Well look at

* General Hospitalizations
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

1/n
1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* We'll start with a view of all metrics, including Cases
* Obviously the 2021 Winter Wave was nothing like we've seen before in regards to Cases
* However, general hospitalizations peaked slightly below the previous 2 waves
#Casedemic

2/n
1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

* If we eliminate cases, the hospitalization metrics become clear
* Left axis = gen hospitalizations
* Right axis = ICU, Vents, Fatalities
* While Gen hosps are similar, ICU/Vents are going to peak SIGNIFICANTLY lower than previous two waves

3/n
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 29
1/28 Texas C19 Update - So this is what Mahomes felt like when he hit Kelce to beat the Bills in OT

THREAD:

* Testing, Cases & all that
* All my Hospitalization Predictions came true
* Public Health Covid modeling has been pathetic. Atrociously wrong. Politically driven

1/n
1/28 Testing

* As of 1/18/22, everything is in steep decline
* Testing peak was 1/10
* Positives peak was 1/12
* Positivity peak was 1/14
* Its collapsing really fast. Hence we see the same thing in cases in 3/n.

2/n
1/28 - Cases

* Cases in free-fall, 7DMA declining at 25% week over week and increasing
* 7DMA down to 36K, which is still a ridiculous number but not as ridiculous as 52K
* Case 7DMA peak was 1/17
* Declining almost as rapidly as it ascended

3/n
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 27
1/27 Texas C19 Brief update: Hospitalization Peak???

* Today is the day. I predicted that hospitalizations through 1/26 would peak in the 7DMA. Is today peak or not? Let's find out.
* No analysis beyond hospitalizations today. See yesterday's update.

1/n
1/27 - Let's look at the numbers first

Through 1/26:

* Admits are in decline. 7DMA peak was 1/20
* Gen Hosp Census @ 13360
* Census 7DMA @ 13,252
* Imminent Census peak is evident in image #3
* Whether today is the peak all depends on the number in image #2 below, in green

2/n
1/27 - So is 1/26 peak or what?

* In a 7 day moving average, the 8th day back falls off the average
* So tomorrow, the 1/20 number falls off. That is 13,371, which so far is the census single day peak
* If 1/27 Census number is less than 13,371 then the 7DMA declines

3/n
Read 4 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 26
1/26 Texas C19 Update: Here comes the Hospitalization Peak

THREAD:

* Testing metrics peaked between 1/10 & 1/14 and are declining fast as of 1/16
* Thus, Cases reported this week are falling off a cliff
* Hospitalization peak should be 1/26 as I predicted 2 weeks ago?!!!

1/n
1/26 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/16:
* Pos% declines to 32.71%
* Testing peaked 1/10
* Positive tests peaked 1/12
* Positivity Rate peaked 1/14
* Decline steepening as of 1/16, which is now showing in cases
.
2/n ImageImageImage
1/26 - Cases

* Case 7DMA now in a precipitous drop, down to 41K. Confident in saying Case peak was 1/17
* 7DMA rate of decline now at 18%
* Going back to testing @ 1/16 and comparing to reported cases through that date, conversion % indicates Case peak as well
* #ovah
.
3/n ImageImageImageImage
Read 7 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 25
1/25 Texas C19 Abbreviated update

THREAD:

* Will summarize peaks for testing and cases
* Case data late today, so won't report on it
* Hospitalization analysis, Admits through Vents

1/n
1/25 Testing

Tests filed by date specimen collected < 8 days old is incomplete

As of 1/15:
* Pos% rate peaked on 1/14, decline started on 1/15
* Testing peaked on 1/10
* Positive Tests peaked on 1/12
* Cases peaked on 1/17
* Color coded the table with that info

2/n
 .
1/25 Hospitalizations

* Admits 7DMA likely peaked on 1/20. 1/24 will be the end of its crest, tomorrow starts steep decline
* 1/24 General Census was a hard comp to MLK suppressed number. Tomorrow will begin full crest & rapid decent
* ICU & Vent will crest soon after
.
3/n
Read 4 tweets

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