Seeing this a lot in my feed, but it's totally wrong, and is based on a mis-reading of BLS statistics. (There is a spike in the data but it's purely due to technical factors related to changing population controls.)
Longer version: Our employment numbers come from surveys. Those surveys must be weighted to reflect the population. January's numbers use different weights than December's, so they can't be directly compared. Here's the BLS: bls.gov/news.release/a…
Nothing dramatic happened to female employment in Jan. Rather, the Census Bureau updated its population weights, which included more men than previously understood. Given survey estimates of the employment rate by gender, this mechanically raises the estimate of male employment.
So the entire differential rise in employment by gender in January is a statistical artefact. You can also see this in a separate survey (the firm survey), which did not make the same adjustment, and which shows no change in January in the share of jobs held by women.
In all of this, I don't blame any journalist for taking the published statistics at face value (when the qualifications are buried in the end notes). The method the BLS uses to make these population adjustments is opaque, and apt to create confusion, and I know it can do better.
Also, there are a lot of interesting and important gender and employment stories coming out of the pandemic. This thread simply notes that handwringing about one monthly change (in January's jobs report) is misplaced. No-one should ever makes sweeping claims based on one report.
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Fed statement (here: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…) is pretty much exactly what everyone expected: No rate rise today, but we think it will "soon be appropriate" to raise rates, and bond purchases end in March.
Worth noting that the decision (which really, for now, is a decision to do nothing) was unanimous.
It's still covid's economy, and the rest of us are just spectators...
You know you're overstating the role that GDP can play as a welfare metric when you say the economy as a whole is stronger now than before the pandemic...
There are fewer jobs, more unemployment, more inflation, more government debt, more bankruptcies, worse schooling, less access to healthcare, worse mental health, greater illness and 800,000 lost souls.
This isn't political—it's the virus's fault.
But the economy ain't stronger
The lesson here is that anytime you talk about "the economy" without talking about actual people and their lives, you're inviting faulty reasoning.
The economy is us. If our lives aren't better, the economy's not better.
December payrolls report shows disappointing job growth of only +199k in December, well below expectations.
Unemployment fell a couple of ticks to 3.9%.
And revisions suggest the past couple of months were a bit better than feared.
Revisions punched November's number up from +210k to +249k, and October up from +546k to +648k. Those upward revisions -- and the prospect that December's number is likely to be revised up -- put a somewhat sunnier glow on these disappointing numbers.
Over the past three months payrolls employment has grown, on average, by +365k per month, which is okay, but not the sort of growth you might hope for.
And the past two months are consistent with a real slowdown in the recovery.
Short version of the prize: We used to dig into the data, say "correlation ain't causation," quickly forget we said that, and make a bunch of causal-ish statements based on data that really couldn't support such claims.
Then David, Josh and Guido said: Hang on.
Their response wasn't the usual destructive "we can't make causal claims" stuff, but rather entirely constructive: Here's a toolkit and set of approaches to help you make credible causal claims.
Non-farm payrolls in September rose by only +194k, after +366k last month.
The recovery has stalled.
We're missing about 8 million jobs, and at this rate, we're not bringing them back any time soon.
Slightly brighter news in the revisions: Last month's gains were revised from +235k to +366k. The previous month's gains were revised up by an additional +38k. So the prior two months were in total +169k better than we thought.
But this month is about 300k worse than we hoped.
The unemployment rate fell from 5.2% to 4.8%, but celebrations on this score would be premature, as it partly reflects the labor force shrinking by about -183k.
Household survey is slightly sunnier than the payrolls survey, showing employment growth of +526k.