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Feb 8 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
2/7 Texas C19 Update - Plummet

* Steep Declines everywhere
* We're about halfway down the hill
* Will be interesting to far down this does or doesn't bottom out

THREAD

1/n
2/7 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/28:

* Huge plunge underway across testing, positivity rate & positive tests
* Upcoming incomplete days show a decline of ~1% a day in positivity rate

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
2/7 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

* Cases 7DMA re-enters somewhat normal Covid territory @ 18K
* 7DMA rate of week over week decline continues in the mid 30s %, now 9 consecutive days. Unprecedented rate of decline.

3/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
2/7 - Hospitalizations

* Covid Admissions still in free fall, 7DMA now down 23% week over week (WoW)
* Covid General Census 7DMA following suit, down 14.7% WoW. Bottom falling out
* Covid % of total beds down to 16.04% - formerly magic 15% mark will be hit in 2-3 days

4/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
2/7 Severe Hospitalizations

* ICU & Vent peaks by far the lowest of any wave
* ICU & Vent in steep decline
* 2020 Winter ICU & Vent comparisons to 2021 will be very favorable towards 2021 in regards to outcomes. 2020 numbers will leave 2021 in the dust

5/n ImageImageImageImage
2/7 - Conclusion

* Starting next week we are looking for signs of the bottom of this hill
* See yesterday's update on severity/fatalities. May try to up the frequency on that reporting as that data starts to come in
* Should be a nice spring!

• • •

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More from @therealarod1984

therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 10
2/9 Texas C19 Update - For what it's worth

* While the dam is breaking on mandates and I hope they wash away in a flood,
* Still going to monitor the collapse of Omicron throughout the state
* Good riddance, yet Thank You Omicron, and here's why...

THREAD

1/n
 .
2/9 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/30:

* Positivity rate 7DMA had declined to 25% and was about to start losing a point a day, every day
* Feb testing numbers will be a straight line down

2/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
2/9 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 13.8K
* has been down 1/3rd or more from the previous week (WoW) for 11 straight days
* Today down 50% WoW - a 1st in 2 years of watching (outside of winter storms or holidays)

3/n
 . ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 7
2/6 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Update to last weeks analysis of C19:
* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

1/n
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* We'll start with a view of all metrics, including Cases
* 2021 Winter Wave cases declining rapidly from their peak - 280% higher than the previous C19 record
* However, C19 hospital census peaked at only 95% of the previous record

2/n
2/6 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics:

* Left axis = hospital census
* Right axis = everything else
* ICU peaked at 72% of the previous record
* Vents peaked at 52% of the previous record
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/1, projected thru 1/15

3/n
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Feb 6
2/5 Texas C19 Update - Cliff Diving

* Declines only steeping statewide
* Covid Hospital admissions plunge
* Record rates of declines everywhere
* Should be a nice spring!

THREAD

1/n
2/5 - Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 1/26:

* We see the start of the plunge across testing, positivity rate & positive tests
* This manifests in today's case & hospitalization numbers

2/n
 .
2/5 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

* Cases 7DMA @ 21K after a huge drop week over week.
Only 12K cases reported today.
* 7DMA rate of week over week decline sets new record of 38%. Now mid 30%s for the past 7 days
* #plummeting

3/n
 .
Read 6 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 31
1/30 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Now that we are on the backside of this wave, we can start to focus on severe outcomes and comparisons to previous waves. Well look at

* General Hospitalizations
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities
* CFR

1/n
1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* We'll start with a view of all metrics, including Cases
* Obviously the 2021 Winter Wave was nothing like we've seen before in regards to Cases
* However, general hospitalizations peaked slightly below the previous 2 waves
#Casedemic

2/n
1/30 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

* If we eliminate cases, the hospitalization metrics become clear
* Left axis = gen hospitalizations
* Right axis = ICU, Vents, Fatalities
* While Gen hosps are similar, ICU/Vents are going to peak SIGNIFICANTLY lower than previous two waves

3/n
Read 9 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 29
1/28 Texas C19 Update - So this is what Mahomes felt like when he hit Kelce to beat the Bills in OT

THREAD:

* Testing, Cases & all that
* All my Hospitalization Predictions came true
* Public Health Covid modeling has been pathetic. Atrociously wrong. Politically driven

1/n
1/28 Testing

* As of 1/18/22, everything is in steep decline
* Testing peak was 1/10
* Positives peak was 1/12
* Positivity peak was 1/14
* Its collapsing really fast. Hence we see the same thing in cases in 3/n.

2/n
1/28 - Cases

* Cases in free-fall, 7DMA declining at 25% week over week and increasing
* 7DMA down to 36K, which is still a ridiculous number but not as ridiculous as 52K
* Case 7DMA peak was 1/17
* Declining almost as rapidly as it ascended

3/n
Read 8 tweets
therealarod1984 Profile picture
Jan 27
1/27 Texas C19 Brief update: Hospitalization Peak???

* Today is the day. I predicted that hospitalizations through 1/26 would peak in the 7DMA. Is today peak or not? Let's find out.
* No analysis beyond hospitalizations today. See yesterday's update.

1/n
1/27 - Let's look at the numbers first

Through 1/26:

* Admits are in decline. 7DMA peak was 1/20
* Gen Hosp Census @ 13360
* Census 7DMA @ 13,252
* Imminent Census peak is evident in image #3
* Whether today is the peak all depends on the number in image #2 below, in green

2/n
1/27 - So is 1/26 peak or what?

* In a 7 day moving average, the 8th day back falls off the average
* So tomorrow, the 1/20 number falls off. That is 13,371, which so far is the census single day peak
* If 1/27 Census number is less than 13,371 then the 7DMA declines

3/n
Read 4 tweets

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