Thread by @ToreRHamming

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The UN monitoring team has published its 29th report on al-Qaida and the Islamic State. Over the past years, the monitoring team's analytical reports have developed into key sources on militant groups. This edition is no exception. Here's a summary of the report.

On Central Africa:
The report concludes that member states still don’t see a direct command line between the IS leadership and the group in #Mozambique. Although the group in Mozambique has experienced setbacks, the report says it appears to be “displaced rather than defeated”

The report estimates that ISCAP has between 600-1200 fighters in #Mozambique mainly consisting of locals and foreigners from #Tanzania and the #Comorros

In #DRCongo, the report informs that the local IS group in growing stronger and spreading its activities. It also noted stronger communication with the IS leadership in the Levant.

The report says that senior ISCAP members in #DRCongo “are connected to the ISIL core command through the general directorate of provinces and its Al-Karrar office in Somalia, although this relationship is not strong”.

Since early 2021, the UN has reported that the general directorate of provinces has grown stronger. This is the same office that is responsible for ExOps according to the UN.

On East Africa:
Regarding the numerous bombings in Uganda over the Fall 2021, there are “evidence that instructions for the construction of improvised explosive devices were sent via Telegram by Ugandan ADF bombmaker Meddie Nkalubo from Madina Camp” in #DRCongo

In “Somalia, the UN assesses that IS has between 260 and 300 fighters while the much stronger al-Qaida affiliate al-Shabaab has between 7,000 and 12,000 fighters. On al-Shabaab, it says that the group is capable of collecting between $2 million and $10 million monthly.

On West Africa:
Militants affiliated with al-Qaida are growing stronger. In central #Mali, they have a presence representing an emirate with territorial control and implementing its own jurisprudence.

ISGS numbers between 400 and 1,000 members. In October 2021, the amir met with representatives from IS in the Levant indicating close coordination and command from the IS leadership.

ISWA consists of 4,000 to 5,000 fighters and is divided in four branches: Lake Chad, Tunbuna, Sambisa Forest and Timbuktu. Its shura council was dissolved in in June 2021 with the prior approval of the IS leadership. Again, says lots about command lines.

On the Levant:
#Syria and #Iraq remains IS core territory. The group has between 6,000 and 10,000 fighters in the two countries, mainly residing in rural areas. The report highlights that the situation in Deraa is unstable and that IS has “at least 300 fighters there...

..., in addition to sleeper cells located around the Hawran mountains.” In Idlib, the strength of HTS is assessed to be between 6,000 to 15,000 fighters and the group has decimated rivals in Idlib, especially Hurras al-Deen which is assessed to be between 1,000 and 3,000.

On #Yemen:
AQAP is suffering but it is not on the verge of defeat. The group has approximately 3,000 fighters. The group is reported to be establishing new training camps. Amir al-Batarfi is currently engaged in making the group more cohesive.

On Afghanistan:
The report notes that there are no indications that the “Taliban has taken steps to limit the activities of foreign terrorist fighters in the country.”

Terrorist groups enjoy more freedom in #Afghanistan now, but there have not been noted new waves of foreign fighters migrating to the country

The report assesses that it remains AQ’s long term goal to plan and execute attacks in the West. But it also notes that the group is currently too weak. AQIS is active in Ghazni, Helmand, Kandahar, Nimruz, Paktika and Zabul and has between 200 and 400 fighters.

ISKP is nearing 4000 members after the release of fighters from Afghan prisons. The group is assessed to be on the rise.

Illustrative of the complexity of the Jihadi movement: Katiba Imam al-Bukhari and Katiba al-Tawhid wal-Jihad operate both in Afghanistan, allied with the Taliban, and in Idlib, allied with HTS. AQ is allied with the Taliban, while HTS is actively fighting the local AQ group

On South-East Asia:
Security forces have made significant progress in countering militants, especially by killing leading figures like Salahuddin Hassan and Ali Kalora. However, the threat from lone actor persists.