Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 9 11 tweets 6 min read
1) Countries and jurisdictions around the world are rushing to lift a wide range of public health restrictions despite the fact that #COVID hospitalizations remain high and testing has dropped off. In this thread, I will survey what I’m calling the Great Resignation. Image
2) In Germany, where #COVID ICU stays have been climbing for the past three weeks, several German states are loosening #pandemic requirements. Bavaria, for example, is opening up for sports and cultural events, while Brandenberg might allow the unvaccinated to shop with a mask. Image
3) In the United States in Connecticut, New Jersey and Delaware, schoolchildren will no longer have to wear masks. On Tuesday, New York State announced businesses won't have to ask for proof of full vaccination. Meanwhile, #COVID deaths are still rising in the U.S. See below. Image
4) In Canada, Alberta and Saskatchewan are ditching vaccine passports, too. In Alberta, #COVID intensive-care stays remain alarmingly high. In contrast, the province of Quebec is sticking with vaccine passports but will end most restrictions by March 14. Image
5) In Brazil, the country recorded 1,189 #COVID deaths in the past 24 hours alone. This latest wave of death in South America’s largest nation is being driven by #Omicron, but far-right President Jair Bolsonaro is downplaying the threat and is hostile toward any restrictions. Image
6) Of course, there are some exceptions to this general trend. In Japan, which is grappling with a 6th wave in the #pandemic, the government has decided to extend restrictions as it continues with a belated mass booster vaccination campaign. abcnews.go.com/Health/wireSto…
7) But for the most part, the world is witnessing a Great Resignation two long years into this #pandemic. As I wrote in a Twitter thread on Sunday, many nations have reduced their #COVID testing despite increases in deaths.
8) As Québec Premier François Legault acknowledged on Tuesday in announcing the relaxation of pandemic measures, the government is taking a “calculated risk” – with lives at stake and blind spots in testing in schools and the workplace. It’s the same story in much of the world.
9) But what if our politicians are wrong in their #pandemic gamble? Alexander Navarro, a University of Michigan professor specializing in the history of medicine, has studied how the United States rushed prematurely to pre-pandemic life during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic.
10) “If we have anything to learn from the history of the 1918 influenza pandemic, as well as our experience thus far with COVID-19…, it is that a premature return to pre-pandemic life risks more cases and more deaths,” Navarro warns. End of thread. healthblog.uofmhealth.org/wellness-preve…
ADDENDUM: This is what Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove (@mvankerhove) of the World Health Organization had to say yesterday about the global #Omicron wave. "Not all countries have peaked in terms of their cases ...and the deaths are increasing as well."

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Feb 10
1) As countries around the world rush to lift public health protections in the #pandemic, it’s instructive to check out what's happening now in areas that were first hit by the super contagious Omicron variant: South Africa and Denmark. Are they much better off? The answer is no.
2) On Dec. 30, the government of South Africa declared its #Omicron-fuelled wave officially over and proceeded to ease restrictions, including eliminating a nighttime curfew. The country was first buffeted by the supposedly mild variant in mid-November. How is it doing today? Image
3) It’s true #COVID deaths in South Africa peaked on Jan. 24 and then plunged soon afterward. But the mortality wave has since rebounded, as the chart below by Our World in Data reveals. Epidemiologically, the most reliable indicator of the severity of the pandemic are deaths. Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 9
1) In China’s version of “bread and circuses,” the Winter Olympics are in full swing, with journalists unable to report on what is going on outside the Games. Meanwhile, the nation of 1.4 billion declared just three #COVID deaths – on July 23, 2021. Image
2) On Jan. 31, the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of China issued a report warning that “as the number of journalists forced out by the Chinese state grows, covering China is increasingly becoming an exercise in remote reporting.” Image
3) “State-backed attacks against foreign journalists, particularly trolling campaigns online, have made it increasingly hard for journalists remaining in China to operate,” the report adds. You can read the full report here: fccchina.org/2022/01/31/med…
Read 9 tweets
Feb 8
1) In less than three weeks – 18 days to be precise – the total number of #COVID hospitalizations in Québec plummeted by 1,000 to 2,425, still high but more manageable. In this thread, I'll focus on this fragile progress while drawing attention to a new blind spot: vaccinations. Image
2) Jan. 18 had marked the highest number of #COVID hospitalizations at any point in the pandemic in Québec. It was at that juncture that the government considered activating its Plan B, which would have meant sending family members into hospitals to care for their loved ones.
3) Another reassuring trend appears to be a steady decrease in #COVID deaths. Québec has posted declining deaths in the past six days. Please see the red line in the chart below and compare the latest daily toll with the 98 deaths declared on Jan. 20. Image
Read 11 tweets
Feb 6
1) Two years into the #pandemic, something odd is now occurring worldwide in the #COVID19 crisis, with the number of global deaths surging while cases seem to be falling. This has not happened quite this way previously. In this thread, I will try to explain why this is occurring.
2) During the first wave of the pandemic in the winter of 2020, #COVID testing wasn't widely conducted around the world. The best indicator at the time was the number of deaths, which quickly skyrocketed. Please see the chart below comparing global cases with deaths at that time.
3) But later on, as countries around the world started testing for #COVID intensively, another pattern emerged. Deaths started to track more closely with the number of new cases, with declared deaths appearing a few weeks after infections were recorded. See an example below.
Read 14 tweets
Feb 5
1) Japan — generally lauded for its response to the #COVID crisis — is now in the grip of what it’s calling a 6th wave in the #pandemic. To be blunt, what the hell is now going wrong in Japan and what lessons can Québec draw from the Land of the Rising Sun?
2) As you can glimpse from the chart below, #COVID hospitalizations in Canada are now in decline, while they are climbing in Japan. Toyko’s metropolitan government has ordered hospitals to boost the number of emergency beds to accept patients at night.
3) In an alarming development reminiscent of what Quebec has been going through, the Japanese government is considering whether it should send low-risk #COVID patients back home to “prevent medical facilities from being overwhelmed.”
Read 9 tweets
Feb 4
Alors que nous entrons dans la troisième année de la crise sanitaire, il est devenu évident que certains mots ou expressions ne sont plus utilisés au Québec pour parler de la pandémie. Dans cette enfilade pas si sérieuse, je discuterai de ces mots oubliés.
J'ai décidé de choisir des mots ou des expressions en français uniquement parce que, 1) je vis et travaille au Québec et 2), ces termes semblent plus colorés, même poétiques, dans la langue de Molière.
Je voudrais remercier tous ceux qui ont contribué à cette enfilade psycholinguistique avec leurs suggestions. Je me concentre sur les expressions ou les mots discontinus, pas sur ceux encore utilisés que nous détestons, comme « la lumière au bout du tunnel. »
Read 12 tweets

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